Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49103 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #840 on: November 16, 2019, 09:30:00 pm »
My whole point is that CF that hit that well and play defense are rare. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #841 on: November 16, 2019, 10:20:53 pm »
If you set it to 0 PA a grand total of 38 players had CF innings and an OPS above .745.  The mean OPS for CF is much, much less. So league average offense or even league average CF offense is rare. Adding average or better defense makes it even rarer. Mean is probably a better stat for the argument you are trying to make.

Using mean gives us the same thing.

At 400 PAs minimum, 18 of 31 CFers were at .745 OPS or better.

At 300 PAs, 20 of 40 CFers were at .745 or better.

0 PAs and up is the entire universe of CFers of course and that’s .745 OPS. It’s not rare, it’s average and at the mean.

As I noted first time around, this has been the general average for CFers for at least 10 seasons. The exact year-by-year from 2010 forward, I posted earlier.

So, when you say:

My whole point is that CF that hit that well and play defense are rare. 

....the data just does not support that. OPSing at .745 for CF is average/median for players with substantial PAs. It’s just a fact.

It’s not a high bar. It’s average for the position. Of course, performing at average is importantly anti-awful. Not easy but should be doable for Cubs. Would be nice if Almora is the guy who helps get us there.

I’m not really knocking Almora—-just pointing out that he’s been a disappointment and is regressing. Let’s agree that he still has upside and has a chance to be better than has been lately.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #842 on: November 16, 2019, 10:59:47 pm »
....It’s not a high bar. It’s average for the position. Of course, performing at average is importantly anti-awful. Not easy ...

Key point on the anti-awful.  **IF** even our worst spot in the lineup was average, while our better ones were variably north of average, we'd have a really above-average offense.  Making progress on two of our three bad spots, CF and 2B, would help a lot.  Don't need to trade any of Rizzo-Contreras-Bryant-Baez-Schwarber to address those two black holes.  The ability to upgrade at those two spots is really central to 2020 hopes. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #843 on: November 17, 2019, 06:43:34 am »
Evidently you missed the part about .745 being the average OPS in CF throughout the majors last season. Not surprised you missed that because you described that as “suckage” when, in fact, it’s typical for at least the last 10 years.

There were 18 CFers in MLB with .745 OPS or better, with 400 PAs or more. It’s not important if Almora qualifies for the Batting Title or not. The Batting Title is not the benchmark here. It’s can Almora hit in the majors like an average CFer so he’s worthy of getting a substantial # of PAs.

You’re arguing that CF MLB AVERAGE is a high bar? Really?




What would the average OPS for CF be if you removed Trout’s 1.083 and the lowest OPS of whatever cutoff you want to use?

The mean no longer holds at even 200 PA and you were the said it is the average OPS for EVERYONE that played CF.  Even at 300 PA there is enough PA for every team to have 1. 

Using 300 PA, and that includes Heyward, Folwer, Kepler, Canha, Verdurgo, Kingery, Dahl, Desmond and Goodwin that are more utlility guys or corner OF.

And if we are going to ignore defense like you have been.  We already have a CF with above average offense that in Heyward. If you want above average defense and above average offense that is a small pool of players. It is so small that very few teams are able to accomplish this.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 06:48:00 am by CUBluejays »

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #844 on: November 17, 2019, 12:39:22 pm »
Your problem here is that, in your original post, you did not know that average CF OPS was .745. You thought the bar was much lower.

That explains the current detour to the mean, where 300, 400, 500, 600 PAs are inadequate to you and now you insist that 200 PAs is the way to go and you want to start eliminating players.

NL average is .739, without Trout. The difference is negligible. If you go back to the immediate seasons before Trout’s career, you will find similar range.

As to defense, it’s a non-issue. We’re on the same page. Almora’s latest defensive metrics probably don’t reflect his above average defense.

Let’s not obfuscate the point. Almora, in most recent two seasons, is nowhere near average offensively, has a significant way to go to get there, and the Cubs need to solve the CF problem and remains to be seen whether Almora is part of the solution.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #845 on: November 17, 2019, 04:31:34 pm »
The suckage didn’t refer to OPS, which is still below league average. The suckage referred to the quality that teams are putting out. Only 16 where able to get to 2 WAR and 5 did it with above average offense and defense. Compare that to say RF, SS, 3B where it was 20+.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #846 on: November 17, 2019, 05:12:37 pm »
Apparently Happ’s swing-and-miss issues are limited to baseball:

https://twitter.com/straightdown/status/1195855671981293568?s=21

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #847 on: November 17, 2019, 08:42:54 pm »
The suckage didn’t refer to OPS, which is still below league average. The suckage referred to the quality that teams are putting out. Only 16 where able to get to 2 WAR and 5 did it with above average offense and defense. Compare that to say RF, SS, 3B where it was 20+.

Again, nothing new about up-the-middle position talent being harder to find than corner positions. This has been true since the modern era began in baseball, not just 2019. (SS has of course had a renaissance in recent years mostly because of the great SS Latino talents). It’s just that Almora recent performance farther away than you think, statistically, from what is average for the position.

Think we’re really mostly on the same page as to Almora. Not penciling him in to be the starter from the get-go in 2019 and at least some hope he can reach the potential we saw a bit of earlier in his career.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #848 on: November 18, 2019, 03:53:17 pm »
Clay Davenport--who was one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus--still has his own website where he maintains projections and translations that produce major league equivalents for foreign and minor leagues. He posted 2019 translations from Japan today. Since there has been a lot of talk about Shogo Akiyama here, I think it's relevant that his translated slash line was .298/.368/.411 with a strikeout rate around 12.5%. So if that's the expectation of what he'd do the next couple of years, I'd take it.

http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2019/2019pageJPLyearALL.shtml
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #849 on: November 18, 2019, 04:21:12 pm »
Shogo Akiyama is asking for 3 years, $15 million:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/11/18/shogo-akiyamas-reported-asking-price-three-years-and-15-million/

If the Cubs can't figure out how to fit that in, they should just tear down again and rebuild. They'll save most (all?) of that money in 2020 by just non-tendering Russell.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #850 on: November 18, 2019, 04:23:48 pm »
Since there has been a lot of talk about Shogo Akiyama here, I think it's relevant that his translated slash line was .298/.368/.411 with a strikeout rate around 12.5%. So if that's the expectation of what he'd do the next couple of years, I'd take it.


Yeah, that would work.

Could see, maybe, an argument for giving a chance to an Akiyama/Almora platoon in CF.

Almora OPSed .532 against lefties in 2019 but, of course, was good against lefties before 2019 and maybe last season was fluky in that respect.

Shogo Akiyama is asking for 3 years, $15 million:..If the Cubs can't figure out how to fit that in, they should just tear down again and rebuild. They'll save most (all?) of that money in 2020 by just non-tendering Russell.

Don't think the $5 per would be a problem but 3 years seems too long.

 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #851 on: November 18, 2019, 04:41:17 pm »
If the Cubs are willing to go 2/$10 million, they should be willing to go for the third year. By 2022, the only high salary players who are under contract/control are Darvish, Hendricks, and Contreras. The Cubs should be willing to absorb that hit in 2022 to buy in on his upside/fit with the team in 2020-21.

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #852 on: November 18, 2019, 05:12:41 pm »
If $5M three years from now is a big enough concern not to sign a guy who could be a very good fit, then the Ricketts should sell right now.  In the baseball economy, $5M is basically zero.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #853 on: November 18, 2019, 05:37:23 pm »
Shogo Akiyama is asking for 3 years, $15 million:....

Clay Davenport--.... posted 2019 translations from Japan today. Since there has been a lot of talk about Shogo Akiyama here, I think it's relevant that his translated slash line was .298/.368/.411 with a strikeout rate around 12.5%. So if that's the expectation of what he'd do the next couple of years, I'd take it.

If Shogo is asking for $15/3, and hasn't gotten it yet, that would suggest that neither Shogo's agent nor Theo nor any baseball GM's believe Davenport's .298/.368/.411 translation. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #854 on: November 18, 2019, 05:59:52 pm »
I think it's way too early in the offseason to make that conclusion. The free agent market moves very, very slowly now. Only one major free agent has signed, and he used his qualifying offer as leverage to set a deadline for 29 teams.

No team is just going to immediately say yes to his agent's first offer even if they're ultimately willing to pay that price.