Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49133 times)

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1305 on: December 12, 2019, 11:18:02 pm »
Go with your preferred trade.  Fried, Anderson and Waters.  Are they better in 2020?  2021?

I HATE the notion of trading Bryant this off- season. 

For me, I’d like to keep Bryant the next two seasons and try really hard to re-sign him when he hits free agency.

But, Cubs seem to be in a different place. It’s a unique situation they are facing with basically the virtual core of the club hits free agency around the same time. Don’t think that has ever happened, anywhere.

So, highly unusual circumstances make for difficult decisions.

Theo now talks about balancing near-term with long-term interests—not exactly a startling idea— but actually kind of  startling when we ponder what it could mean, as in trading Bryant and more.

If Theo could get all of Fried, Waters, Anderson—he’s going to do that. He won’t get that but he would take that in two seconds if he could, given the apparent current strategy above.

Would that make Cubs better in 2020?  Unlikely——maybe in 2021 when Waters and Anderson more ready.

In any case, will be interesting how this plays out. Naturally, full of gloom and doom here—-the most predictable thing about the whole situation.

Looks like Jesse Rogers prediction about Bryant getting traded at Winter meetings turned out wrong. Beats me how anybody actually expects Bryant to be traded before the grievance is resolved.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1306 on: December 12, 2019, 11:35:26 pm »
Legal stuff like grievances usually take a long, long time?  Is there any reason to expect Bryant's to be resolved in time to clarify his status?  I have no idea, but don't thinks like that often take 6 months or more to get processed? 

I'm just wondering, because *IF* a trading team really thinks the grievance might have a chance, and is going to wait until that's resolved, might that not perhaps erase the whole discussion and preclude any Bryant trade from this offseason? 

Or is there already some scheduled date for that to be considered and judged? 
 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1307 on: December 12, 2019, 11:37:44 pm »
Best guess is 2-3 weeks, but why it took this long to even get heard is beyond me.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1308 on: December 13, 2019, 12:01:14 am »
The Bryant grievance was timely filed in 2015.

Thereafter, the parties evidently felt it was in their mutual interest to just hold it in abeyance.

We can speculate why: maybe the grievance could have become moot by a contract extension; maybe neither side wanted to risk bad feelings by having a winner/loser earlier in the relationship; maybe the union wanted to see if other cases emerged. Take your guess.

Because arbitration is a private, non-judicial process, the parties can do whatever they want by mutual agreement. A court would be unlikely to allow this, for the above reasons, as a judge generally wants to move stuff off his/her docket. Delays happen for other reasons.

I guess the parties finally reached the point that a resolution became necessary. Seems like it will come before there’s any practical problems with the delay. Expectation is before end of the year, so no big deal waiting this long.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1309 on: December 13, 2019, 07:35:02 am »
When will the Kris Bryant grievance be resolved?

When will there be a replacement for the current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA that expires on December 21, 2021?

Same answer to both questions.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1310 on: December 13, 2019, 09:00:36 am »
In the Kris Bryant saga, I consider several things.  1. Theo's remarks about leadership and accountability.  Of all the positives about Bryant, I've never heard him described as a leader.  He seems to be very quiet and in Rizzo and Baez' shadows.  2. There have been numerous accounts that the Cubs lineup is flawed; too many of the same kind of hitters.  You need to break that up by shifting some people to other teams.  Bryant is one that makes sense.

What to do?  The Cubs need to get aggressive.  Go out and sign Donaldson.  3B would be double-covered.  If the move makes Bryant harder to move, he goes to the outfield.  It opens up trading a whole host of people from Schwarber to Bode to Happ to Contreras to Bryant without weakening the team.  Of course the Cubs won't do that because no one in the front office knows how to play chess.  Cashman knows how to play chess.  The dummy in St. Louis knows how to play.  The Reds GM is proving to be proficient.  But in Chicago, we cry about salary limitations instead of looking at all the puzzle pieces.  JMO

Sign the Japanese outfielder and another pitcher: Ryu, preferably over Bumgartner (not a quality, quality guy) or Kuechel, but someone who can eat innings.

Get into a position to trade from power instead of weakness.  We have a great nucleus, stop acting so damn helpless.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1311 on: December 13, 2019, 10:28:12 am »
I agree that Bryant hasn't shown obvious leadership qualities.  But I don't agree that he is the kind of hitter that is emblematic of the Cubs' hitting woes.  In particular, he's not a big K guy, has a career OBP of .385, and is a fine baserunner.  Unless you're blowing the team up, you have to keep him unless you get a massive return.
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method

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1312 on: December 13, 2019, 10:28:46 am »
Bidding for Donaldson is getting hotter. Rangers tapped out as its past their budget constraints. So i doubt cash strapped Cubs are in the hunt for him.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1313 on: December 13, 2019, 10:53:23 am »
I have not heard what Donaldson is likely to go for, but unless the Front Office has been just blowing smoke, they aren't likely to go after a big cost, long contract player, and are twice as unlikely without the trade of Bryant's salary.  Schwarber, Bote, Happ or even Contreras will not give them the salary relief they would need.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1314 on: December 13, 2019, 11:03:49 am »
Michael Ernst's depth chart


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1315 on: December 13, 2019, 11:39:10 am »
The salary relief that the Ricketts want, not need. The Cubs revenue is up a ton since they bought the team. They could support a higher payroll than last year and still make money.

The Cubs hitters are prone to outside sliders and high fastballs. Bryant never had a problem with breaking balls and he has worked and improved against the high fastball. Bryant was one of the few Cubs that had an above average or near league average contact rate. Trading him and replacing him with Bote will make the problem worse not better.

If this is a baseball move about the offense and contact Contreras and Baez are the guys you replace. This is simply that the Ricketts family doesn’t want to pay Bryant/Rizzo/Baez so one has to go and they don’t want to give the other owners a few extra million.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1316 on: December 13, 2019, 12:13:50 pm »
P2 and CBJ, nobody saying that Bryant's bag is theissue.  The issue is the lineup.  To change the lineup, some heart wrenching and tough choices need to be made.

Taking another big contract or two is not that challenging if you focus on making trades before March.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1317 on: December 13, 2019, 12:25:54 pm »
The salary relief that the Ricketts want, not need. The Cubs revenue is up a ton since they bought the team. They could support a higher payroll than last year and still make money.

The Cubs hitters are prone to outside sliders and high fastballs. Bryant never had a problem with breaking balls and he has worked and improved against the high fastball. Bryant was one of the few Cubs that had an above average or near league average contact rate. Trading him and replacing him with Bote will make the problem worse not better.

If this is a baseball move about the offense and contact Contreras and Baez are the guys you replace. This is simply that the Ricketts family doesn’t want to pay Bryant/Rizzo/Baez so one has to go and they don’t want to give the other owners a few extra million.

I am not familiar with their income or expenses to make that judgement.  If you are, perhaps you can fill in the necessary details.

How much has their total income increased since the purchase?
How much has their total player salaries increased since the purchase?
How much has their total Front Office costs increased since the purchase?
How much has their Scouting department costs increased since the purchase?
How much has their total minor league salary and administrative costs increased, taking into account the two extra minor league teams?
How much have interest and depreciation costs increased due to the one billion dollar renovation of Wrigley Field.

If you clear up these details, we can easily make an informed judgement on whether or not they can "afford" to pay more.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1318 on: December 13, 2019, 12:33:24 pm »
Cubs Revenue Via Forbes
2002 $131 
2007 $197
2008 $239
2009 $246
2010 $258
2011 $266
2012 $274
2013 $266
2014 $302
2015 $340
2016 $434
2017 $457
2018 $452

Cubs Player Expenses via Forbes
2002 $81
2007 $115
2008 $140
2009 $151
2010 $157
2011 $162
2012 $137
2013 $129
2014 $111
2015 $154
2016 $189
2017 $186
2018 $195

So pre-Ricketts the Cubs were spending 58-62% of revenue on the Cubs (WGN was hiding money so it was likely a lower percentage for the Tribune).
2008-2013 it was 58%, 61%, 61%, 50%, 48.4%
2014- 36%
2015- 45.2%
2016- 43.5%
2017- 40.7%
2018- 43.1%

So Revenues have jumped jumped $213 million since the Rickett's bought the team and salary has increased $50 million*.  The FO, Scouting department, and especially minor league pay (Most minor leaguers make $8-10,000/year) are rounding errors.

*Revenue doesn't include RSN profits, BAMTech money, rooftops, Rickettsville etc so the percentages are lower.
« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 12:43:59 pm by CUBluejays »

davep

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #1319 on: December 13, 2019, 12:41:58 pm »
They have increased administrative expenses drastically, as well as interest and depreciation expense due to renovation.  And in spite of that, they had the third highest player payroll last year.  Much as we would like it, no team functions without a reasonable budget that allows them to balance current needs with future needs.