Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 33885 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2445 on: June 30, 2020, 09:27:59 am »
Sharma & Mooney have a piece on The Athletic that analyzes the makeup of the new rosters.

https://theathletic.com/1899264/2020/06/29/ready-or-not-the-cubs-roster-and-return-to-play-plans-are-taking-shape/

Ron

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Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2447 on: June 30, 2020, 10:12:06 am »
I think I disagree. I think I would prefer Caratini getting regular AB's as DH, and Contreras DH'ing on days that Caratini catches...

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2448 on: June 30, 2020, 10:50:56 am »
I agree, Dave.  DH opens AB for somebody.

I'd rather give most of those AB to a professional hitter like caratani, rather than to Souza or Almora. 

And *if* Caratini is part of your normal 9-man lineup, then flipping Contreras to DH once in a while to keep him fresh wouldn't need to shake up the batting lineup. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2449 on: June 30, 2020, 09:09:40 pm »
Dumb long-range questions:
1.  How does this season work for service time and free agency?  Bryant, etc.; this will still be a full season towards free agency, whether they get in 60 games or not? 

2.  How about luxury tax?  Much winter talk about the lux line, but then they unexpectedly chose to pay Quintana and go over the line after all.  Given that they're now only paying ≤40% of their anticipated budget, does that basically put EVERYBODY under the line, so that won't be a factor? 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2450 on: July 01, 2020, 12:56:16 am »
Dumb long-range questions:
1.  How does this season work for service time and free agency?  Bryant, etc.; this will still be a full season towards free agency, whether they get in 60 games or not? 

2.  How about luxury tax?  Much winter talk about the lux line, but then they unexpectedly chose to pay Quintana and go over the line after all.  Given that they're now only paying ≤40% of their anticipated budget, does that basically put EVERYBODY under the line, so that won't be a factor? 

March agreement addressed this.

1. Full year service time (unless player opts not to play and is not in a special health risk category).

2. Luxury tax still based on full season payroll but any tax to be paid pro-rated

JR

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2451 on: July 01, 2020, 10:37:43 am »
Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy contracted the coronavirus earlier this spring but has since recovered.  Definitely sounds like he had a rough experience with it though.  He's just 38 years old.

Quote
Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy told Mully And Haugh of Chicago's 670 The Score that he was diagnosed with COVID-19 this spring.

Hottovy has since recovered and will apparently be present for the Cubs' first scheduled workout on Friday at Wrigley Field. "I had the virus," he said. "I got crushed ... It took me 30 days to test negative." The 38-year-old former minor and major league pitcher added that he ran a 100-plus-degree fever for six straight days and ultimately lost 18 pounds. He considered sitting out of MLB's planned 60-game season but now feels that he can be a sounding board for players and their families as to how to operate during this pandemic.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2020, 11:06:08 am by JR »
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2452 on: July 01, 2020, 12:58:25 pm »
...
2. Luxury tax still based on full season payroll but any tax to be paid pro-rated

So, that means we'll be in 3-time-over penalty, correct? 

Which means what in terms of draft-pick penalty? 
1.  If we sign any compensation-caliber free agent, we lose our first round draft pick?
2.  And if we again stay off from comp-caliber free agent, then our first-round pick moves back 10 picks? 

And in terms of financial penalties, for next season we'll be paying 50% penalty for any dollars beyond the lux line? 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2453 on: July 01, 2020, 01:01:17 pm »
Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy contracted the coronavirus earlier this spring but has since recovered.  Definitely sounds like he had a rough experience with it though.  He's just 38 years old.


This is considered a "mild" case. 
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Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2454 on: July 01, 2020, 01:04:43 pm »
This is considered a "mild" case. 
There are also lasting lung problems that can hit you later in life.  A recovery does not mean you are free of the scourge.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2455 on: July 01, 2020, 01:08:53 pm »
There are also lasting lung problems that can hit you later in life.  A recovery does not mean you are free of the scourge.

I don't know living with pulmonary fibrosis seems like a fun to live the rest of your life.  Imagine breathing through a straw everyday and being more prone to infections.

People have also ended up with neurologic problems like strokes, blood clots, dilated cardiomyopathy (think heart failure).  There was a reason I wasn't sleeping for the first month of this. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2456 on: July 01, 2020, 01:09:26 pm »
So, that means we'll be in 3-time-over penalty, correct? 


No, Cubs were not over in 2018.

Over in 2019.

I suppose they could still get under in 2020 if things go bad.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2457 on: July 01, 2020, 01:47:56 pm »
No, Cubs were not over in 2018.   Over in 2019.

I suppose they could still get under in 2020 if things go bad.

Thanks.   So next year's draft pick won't be compromised.  That's potentially helpful.  In such a short season, things could be pretty unpredictable.  I don't anticpate the Cubs taking 12th place or anything in the NL, but with such a short season, it wouldn't really be that hard.  Maybe they'll end up with a top-10 pick next year? 

I think it's going to be hard to get under "if things go bad". 

Spotrac has a really detailed competitive balance tax total.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/
*It lists the Cubs at $8.6 million over the cap. 
*Even if you give up and trade guys after only 20 games, it would take at least 3 big-ticket dumps to unload $8.6 in salary: 
-40 games: Quintana: $2.6M,  Kimbrel:  $3.54,  Chatwood:  $3.13

I wonder how they'll calculate lux tax:  30 games is half of a 60-game season, but 18.5% of 162.  If you trade Quintana after 30 games, would the Cubs be only liable for 50% of his full-season lux line, because 30 games is half of the actual season?  Or if they trade him after 30 games, are they still liable for over 80% of his lux line? 

Or if they got somebody to take Q right now, might they be fully relieved of his full $10.5 line, because he played the full season elsewhere?  Or would the Cubs still be liable for the 102 unplayed games, and he'd still count as $6.6 against their lux line? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2458 on: July 01, 2020, 02:21:08 pm »
Lux line 2021: 
1.  For 2020, at $216.6, over the $208 line by $8.6
2.  2021, lux line will rise by only $2, from $208 to $210.  So basically presently we'd be $6.6 over that.
3.  Possible lux reductions:
Lester:  25.8
Chatwood:  12.7
Q:  10.5
Descalso:  2.5
Brad Brach:  1.1

Basically those 5 guys would take $52.6 off from what we've got now.  With the cap going up by a couple, in a sense we'd be $54.6 better than now.  Given that we're $8.6 over now, that would put us about $46 under. 

My guess is that salary raises for Bryant and Baez and those guys will gobble up a bunch of that $46.  But that with the state of the economy, with possibly uncertainty about whether Covid will continue to reduce fan attendance and revenue next year, and after the big losses the Cubs will experience this year, my guess is the Cubs will probably elect to NOT go over the lux line again this winter.  Even if that means going into next season with Mills, Alzolay or whomever, and a reduced-contract Chatwood as rotation guys. 

Just can't imagine they're going to want to shoot into 3-tax penalty, draft-pick pushback, etc. after the financial burn they'll be experiencing this season. 

Bennett

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