Author Topic: Cubs in '21  (Read 53829 times)

guest405

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #45 on: October 09, 2020, 10:40:11 pm »
Agree Dave.

I thought about Happ after I made the post.

I think I like Happ more than most.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2020, 10:57:33 pm »
I finally found time to listen to Theo's post-season press conference. 

He didn't talk that much about many specific players. 

He wasn't aware of any surgeries or procedures upcoming.  Wick seemed to be about the only guy with an injury, and Theo didn't understand that to be very lasting, so should be fine for the spring. 

Based on his comments, he appears to be assuming Mills and Alzolay in the rotation.  Spoke pretty positively about Mills potential to be a long-term starter. 

Said they will be looking for some rotation depth; I believe he referenced depth from "outside". 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #47 on: October 09, 2020, 11:18:15 pm »
As Dave noted earlier, AZ Phil writes that Schwarber is a virtual lock to be non-tendered if not traded by end of November.

With the financial picture so unsettled throughout MLB, all bets are off regarding contracts and payroll.  Cubs one of many clubs, if not all clubs, in that position.

Schwarber is an interesting case.  He was really awful in 2020, so definitely in danger. But, I think it's kind of hard to evaluate him overall as a contributor.  Maybe his salary is determinative of his status anyway.

Look at the competing WAR methodologies.  Schwarber has 2108 career PAs.  Add a couple hundred more PAs and it's about four full seasons of play for a regular.

fWAR has Schwarber at 9.5 career fWAR but bWAR has Schwarber at a paltry career 5.1 bWAR.  That's a really big difference, probably mostly about different defensive value. 

In any case, give Schwarber those additional 200 PAs and fWAR would have him as a slightly above average regular but bWAR would have him as a below average regular.

Maybe he's just not a good fit here anymore because of so many PAs of his that end without a ball in play but this year was a terrible disappointment after his excellent 2nd half in 2019.   

craig

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #48 on: October 10, 2020, 10:12:28 am »
Does the Cubs front office care about including a lefty in the rotation?  I don't know.  Last year we had three, Q-Hamels-Lester.  But with Darvish-Hendricks-Mills-Alzolay, those are all righties.  They may not care, but I was just curious. 

I don't.  I think each game is self-standing, and whether a lefty or a righty started yesterday has no impact on today. 

For much of my youth as a Cubs fan, they didn't successfully develop good young LH starters, but it seemed common premise by Cubs GMs that they wanted a lefty rotation guy.  So it seems like for many years they'd try to bring in some experienced low-stuff veteran lefty, most of whom were relatively ineffective. 

I wonder this because *IF* Theo does want a veteran low-stuff finesse lefty, I wonder if he might not actually be interested in bringing Quintana back?  Not sure anybody in baseball loves Q as much as Theo does.  Not necessarily many other teams wanting/needing a 5th starter as badly as Theo does, either, with so few in-house candidates. 

Given Covid finances, Q's decline in stuff, Q's health issues over recent years, and given Q's actual lack of success over the last couple of years, I can't imagine there's going to be a huge market demand for what Q supplies.  So, maybe Q is a guy who you could sign for a really modest short-term deal to fill the back spot in the rotation? 

Theo referenced looking for more "depth" for the rotation, and I think he referenced from outside the organization.  Maybe that means Q wouldn't fit with that.  But might also be that "depth" is for 6th/7th man type guys.  Theo made no specific reference to getting 5th starter from outside the rotation, just "depth".  So who knows.  Maybe Theo's thought is you add some depth guys, bring in whatever minor league free agents, pitch lab them, and let Ross just choose and let the best man win.  Maybe that's Colin Rea, maybe it's Tyson Miller, maybe it's some guy coming back from injury looking for a restart, like Paul Maholm back in the day.  Maybe Cory Abbott or Brailyn Marquez end up winning that spot, who knows. 

Cubs have had little competition for rotation spots or main starting spots in recent years.  "Competition" often means "we don't have anybody good enough to command the spot", so I'm not sure I want to wish for it.  But it might be fun, in camp at least, to have some competition and have the fun of hoping some unproven guy is actually decent. 


davep

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2020, 10:24:29 am »
ArizonaPhil speculated that the Front Office may try to bring back Quintana for 8 million per year, or another lefty for a similar price.  Like you, I am not convinced that a left handed starter is that important, since most starters work on a five day rotation, and it is difficult to match a specific lefty against a specific team that seems to have a weakness in that direction.

In addition, since starters seldom pitch more than about half a game, it probably isn't as important as when they were expected to go 8 or 9 innings.

But I feel the same way about relievers.  When facing a left handed hitter, I would much rather have a good right hander than a mediocre left hander on the mound.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #50 on: October 10, 2020, 12:22:29 pm »
ArizonaPhil speculated that the Front Office may try to bring back Quintana for 8 million per year, or another lefty for a similar price.  ...

Theo loves Q, so maybe he'd spend that much.  But I'd think you'd not need to spend nearly that much for him. 

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #51 on: October 10, 2020, 01:58:30 pm »
I'm not so sure that Theo "loves Q." I think he's acknowledged that Quintana has not produced the way he was expected to at the time of the trade, and beyond that, he's not about to criticize his players in public.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #52 on: October 10, 2020, 07:22:10 pm »
I love Theo, and what he did getting the Cubs to the top in 2016 was obviously great.  But in viewing his moves since then as a collective body of work, is there any way to judge it as anything but pretty much a disaster?  If Hoyer means more of the same, I'm not sure I want him handed Theo's job on a silver platter.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2020, 10:02:45 am »
I can't remember if it was Sharma or Mooney, but they brought up the point that the FO was retooled last year along with the player development changes.  Unless their was something that changed in 2020 for the Ricketts family Hoyer is getting Theo's job.  If you weren't looking to keep Hoyer, you wouldn't let them redo everything in 2019. 

They did say that there wasn't an obvious choice for the GM role in the Cubs org when Harris left and all the guys that the D-Backs took.  Maybe the can bring Porter back or they go outside the Theo tree to bring in some different voices.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2020, 11:35:38 pm »
Cubs will pick at #21 in the 2021 draft.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #55 on: October 16, 2020, 02:50:38 pm »
So, AZ Phil says virtual lock that Schwarber will be non-tendered, if not traded.

But, Sharma/Mooney think Schwarber likely will be tendered and that now is not the time to be traded. Will be interesting to see who turns out to be correct.

Sharma/Mooney:

Schwarber is widely respected as a hard worker and a good dude in the clubhouse and one of the most clutch postseason hitters in franchise history. That means the Cubs will likely tender a contract and Schwarber will get a final year in the arbitration system. It’s unclear if there ever was an ideal time to move Schwarber — given all the extreme highs and lows in his career — but it definitely isn’t now (after posting a .701 OPS in 59 games).

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #56 on: October 16, 2020, 03:17:33 pm »
It’s unclear if there ever was an ideal time to move Schwarber — given all the extreme highs and lows in his career — but it definitely isn’t now (after posting a .701 OPS in 59 games).

This is such a bad position to take, IMO. Almora, Russell, Montgomery, and Edwards all had pretty good value after 2017, and still had some (but less) value after 2018. But there wasn't an "ideal time" to move any of them. So the front office just kept on holding out hope that the time would come. But it never came, and instead of getting 75% of the return they wanted, all those guys eventually combined to give the Cubs one week of Martin Maldonado as a backup catcher, then a couple months of Tony Kemp.

At some point, you have to accept that value isn't coming back and you have to just accept whatever other teams are offering. And if you can't trade him, I'm pretty sure it won't be hard for a "cash strapped" team to replace a .701 OPS on far less than $8 million in the COVID-offseason free agent market.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #57 on: October 16, 2020, 04:16:48 pm »
Yeah, I kind of agree, br.  There's never really an ideal time to trade somebody, it seems.  Big-spending team like the Cubs never wants to trade guys when they're good.  And then they never want to trade guys after they've had bad years and their market is down.  If you don't want to trade down-value guys, and you don't want to trade good performers, who exactly is that you ever want to trade? 

From a different perspective, the ideal time to trade people is if your scouting is smart enough to know that a guy's present market value is higher than his future performance will justify.  You'll get more value by trading him now than by keeping him.  Theo has consistently over-valued his personnel, demanding more value in trade than other GM's are willing to pay, or than the players have subsequently produced on the field.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #58 on: October 16, 2020, 05:33:04 pm »
So, AZ Phil says virtual lock that Schwarber will be non-tendered, if not traded.

But, Sharma/Mooney think Schwarber likely will be tendered and that now is not the time to be traded. Will be interesting to see who turns out to be correct.

Sharma/Mooney:

Schwarber is widely respected as a hard worker and a good dude in the clubhouse and one of the most clutch postseason hitters in franchise history. That means the Cubs will likely tender a contract and Schwarber will get a final year in the arbitration system. It’s unclear if there ever was an ideal time to move Schwarber — given all the extreme highs and lows in his career — but it definitely isn’t now (after posting a .701 OPS in 59 games).

The fact that this is not the ideal time does not mean it's not the necessary time, given the realistic options. I did not read this statement by Sharma or Mooney (whomever wrote it) as a prediction that Schwarber won't be traded. I would be very surprised if they don't attempt to do so (though if he isn't traded, I suppose we'll never know whether they tried).

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #59 on: October 16, 2020, 06:08:09 pm »
Apparently, Cubs have seen enough and have decided today to get this guy ON OUR SIDE, for a change.

From Cubs transaction page at MLB.com:

Chicago Cubs signed free agent LHP Angel Hernandez to a minor league contract