Author Topic: Cubs in '21  (Read 53841 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #150 on: November 24, 2020, 10:55:39 am »
I get it through my Apple podcast app, but here is a link.

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/podcasts/cubs-weekly-podcast/

davep

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #151 on: November 24, 2020, 04:48:18 pm »
Whenever  look at Robles, I am reminded of Jerome Walton.  Great defense, good contact, good speed on bases, not a lot or power.

And after a good start, increased weight, lost step, less contact.

Different people, but I always worry about a high speed CF that gains weight when still young.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #152 on: November 24, 2020, 05:41:12 pm »
Robles has flashed way more power than Walton at every level, including the majors.  He may yet turn out to be a bust but there's no real comp there.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #153 on: November 24, 2020, 06:53:18 pm »
Their OPSs were virtually identical in the minors, and not much difference in the majors.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #154 on: November 24, 2020, 07:41:16 pm »
Robles has 23 HR in 797 MLB ABs.  Walton had 25 HRs in 1593 ABs.  Robles is the same age now that Walton was when he broke into the majors.  Robles is a lottery ticket, but Walton is no comp.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #155 on: November 24, 2020, 08:13:42 pm »
Maybe a better comp would be Corey Patterson with less speed and power and more strike outs.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #156 on: November 24, 2020, 08:38:22 pm »
Maybe a better comp would be Corey Patterson with less speed and power and more strike outs.

Yikes!

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #157 on: November 24, 2020, 10:00:57 pm »
Except that Robles has a lower K-rate at both the minors and the majors than Patterson at this stage of their relative careers, as well as a higher OPS at both levels despite significantly more big league ABs at a younger age.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #158 on: November 25, 2020, 08:29:17 am »
Except that Robles has a lower K-rate at both the minors and the majors than Patterson at this stage of their relative careers, as well as a higher OPS at both levels despite significantly more big league ABs at a younger age.

Corey Patterson through his age 23 season in the majors
1167 PA, 22.8% K%, .712 OPS, 2.6 fWAR
Robles
899 PA, 23.5% K%, .727 OPS, 2.5 fWAR

Patterson started minor league ball at 19 in the Midwest league.
.949 OPS (Robles at 19 in A ball .864 OPS)
AA at 20 .829 OPS  (Robles .883. after getting to play 1/2 the year at A+ ball.)  Patterson had 47 PA in the majors vs Robles 27 PA
AAA at 21 .694 OPS in 403 (Robles .742 in 181 PA), Patterson had 145 PA in the majors vs 66 PA for Robles.

I think the comp is just fine.


« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 10:09:43 am by CUBluejays »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #159 on: November 25, 2020, 12:24:04 pm »
The comp is good in terms of both mlb, and minor-league OPS. 

Minor-league K-rate maybe more favorable for Robles?  deeg mentioned minor-league K-rate, and I think Robles in minors was a shade lower?  Plus in a world where K-rates are higher now, even in the minors, compared to 20 years ago? 

Obviously Corey ended up busting. 

It's interesting to consider whether today's scouts and analytics might have anticipated that better; was his strong scouting reputation based on "old school" perspectives, and smart modern scouts wouldn't have projected him so favorably?  Or could perhaps modern hit-labs have helped him to improve and succeed? 

I'm guessing probably not.  Modern guys still project age-based improvement.  Corey just never did improve.  He never seemed to get any better than he was as a teenager in Lansing.  As he promoted to higher competition, he was unable to keep up.  And once in the majors, he never really improved there either.

I guess I'm kinda thinking that even though Corey busted, I'd be shocked if the Cubs were able to trade Bryant's expiring 1-year salary for a prospect with as much perceived ceiling and scouting favor as Corey had back at age 23.  Sometimes prospects like that make some improvements and adjustments and become really good major-leaguers. 



CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #160 on: November 25, 2020, 12:42:58 pm »
The comp is good in terms of both mlb, and minor-league OPS. 

Minor-league K-rate maybe more favorable for Robles?  deeg mentioned minor-league K-rate, and I think Robles in minors was a shade lower?  Plus in a world where K-rates are higher now, even in the minors, compared to 20 years ago? 

Obviously Corey ended up busting. 

It's interesting to consider whether today's scouts and analytics might have anticipated that better; was his strong scouting reputation based on "old school" perspectives, and smart modern scouts wouldn't have projected him so favorably?  Or could perhaps modern hit-labs have helped him to improve and succeed? 

I'm guessing probably not.  Modern guys still project age-based improvement.  Corey just never did improve.  He never seemed to get any better than he was as a teenager in Lansing.  As he promoted to higher competition, he was unable to keep up.  And once in the majors, he never really improved there either.

I guess I'm kinda thinking that even though Corey busted, I'd be shocked if the Cubs were able to trade Bryant's expiring 1-year salary for a prospect with as much perceived ceiling and scouting favor as Corey had back at age 23.  Sometimes prospects like that make some improvements and adjustments and become really good major-leaguers. 




Corey was promoted pretty aggressively in his minor league career and I'm sure that hurt him.  He went A ball, AA to majors, AAA majors.  Development curves are pretty flat now, so bascially the early 20's are going to be your best years and then decline hits around 27 or so.

Corey wasn't really a bust though.  He ranks 21 on rWAR for #3 picks, he is an above average result.  He just didn't become a star. In 2003 he had 2.5 fWAR and a .839 OPS in 83 games.  2004 he had a 5 fWAR season and a .771 OPS.  He ended up with 10.9 fWAR for his career.  He offense got lost in the steroid era.  He was solid, just not a super star.  I think that is pretty comparable to what Robles will be.  He's a solid player, but you can get maybe a slightly less talented version of him as a free agent pretty cheaply.  You could also make it a guy with contact and that will help to diversify the offense more than what Robles adds. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #161 on: November 25, 2020, 03:30:02 pm »
Corey Patterson through his age 23 season in the majors
1167 PA, 22.8% K%, .712 OPS, 2.6 fWAR
Robles
899 PA, 23.5% K%, .727 OPS, 2.5 fWAR

Patterson started minor league ball at 19 in the Midwest league.
.949 OPS (Robles at 19 in A ball .864 OPS)
AA at 20 .829 OPS  (Robles .883. after getting to play 1/2 the year at A+ ball.)  Patterson had 47 PA in the majors vs Robles 27 PA
AAA at 21 .694 OPS in 403 (Robles .742 in 181 PA), Patterson had 145 PA in the majors vs 66 PA for Robles.

I think the comp is just fine.

It depends...because if we use bWAR, you get a very different outcome and a poor comp.

Robles has 4 career bWAR thru age 23 season and Patterson 1.8 WAR...and Patterson had 25% more PAs. Also, Robles had a 4 WAR season already—all-star caliber by this metric.

But, the biggest difference is NOW we know how Patterson turned out. We DON’T know about Robles future. After Patterson’s age 23 season, most were still enthusiastic how Patterson might turn out and were happy to have him. He was a significant asset. Hindsight is 20-20, as the saying goes.

And, yes, Craig is right depending how one defines being a “bust.” Was Patterson a “complete failure?” No, he had the equivalent of five average seasons and a lot of disappointment.

Was Corey Patterson a “significant disappointment”? Of course he was. Nobody is looking for that for a #3 pick. If you ask everybody involved in drafting Patterson plus 100 knowledgable Cubs fans, nobody is going to say, “oh, he was an average #3 draft pick and that’s fine by me.”

Robles has different issues than Patterson did back then, even assuming a comp for sake of discussion. Can Robles incorporate the added muscle into his pre-2020 game going forward? Or, can he slim down? Was a 60-game season a poor indicator, especially with a late start to the season? Is he a 4 bWAR player again? Or, is 2020 his real game?

These are mostly scouting assessments.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #162 on: November 25, 2020, 03:45:41 pm »
Robles has 23 HR in 797 MLB ABs.  Walton had 25 HRs in 1593 ABs.  Robles is the same age now that Walton was when he broke into the majors.  Robles is a lottery ticket, but Walton is no comp.

Home runs are not the only measure of power.

Dihard

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #163 on: November 25, 2020, 08:35:00 pm »
The talk of Corey Patterson makes me think of watching him get mercilessly booed after a particularly bad strikeout, something that was certainly not an uncommon occurrence. The thing that made it noteworthy, though, was that it was in a game (at Coors) where the Cubs weren’t the home team.

Ouch.


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guest405

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #164 on: November 26, 2020, 07:12:14 am »
CP was gonna be a stallion until he hurt his knee.