Corey Patterson through his age 23 season in the majors
1167 PA, 22.8% K%, .712 OPS, 2.6 fWAR
Robles
899 PA, 23.5% K%, .727 OPS, 2.5 fWAR
Patterson started minor league ball at 19 in the Midwest league.
.949 OPS (Robles at 19 in A ball .864 OPS)
AA at 20 .829 OPS (Robles .883. after getting to play 1/2 the year at A+ ball.) Patterson had 47 PA in the majors vs Robles 27 PA
AAA at 21 .694 OPS in 403 (Robles .742 in 181 PA), Patterson had 145 PA in the majors vs 66 PA for Robles.
I think the comp is just fine.
It depends...because if we use bWAR, you get a very different outcome and a poor comp.
Robles has 4 career bWAR thru age 23 season and Patterson 1.8 WAR...and Patterson had 25% more PAs. Also, Robles had a 4 WAR season already—all-star caliber by this metric.
But, the biggest difference is NOW we know how Patterson turned out. We DON’T know about Robles future. After Patterson’s age 23 season, most were still enthusiastic how Patterson might turn out and were happy to have him. He was a significant asset. Hindsight is 20-20, as the saying goes.
And, yes, Craig is right depending how one defines being a “bust.” Was Patterson a “complete failure?” No, he had the equivalent of five average seasons and a lot of disappointment.
Was Corey Patterson a “significant disappointment”? Of course he was. Nobody is looking for that for a #3 pick. If you ask everybody involved in drafting Patterson plus 100 knowledgable Cubs fans, nobody is going to say, “oh, he was an average #3 draft pick and that’s fine by me.”
Robles has different issues than Patterson did back then, even assuming a comp for sake of discussion. Can Robles incorporate the added muscle into his pre-2020 game going forward? Or, can he slim down? Was a 60-game season a poor indicator, especially with a late start to the season? Is he a 4 bWAR player again? Or, is 2020 his real game?
These are mostly scouting assessments.