Thanks for good discussion on SP and FA. SP is hard to figure. Thoughts:
1. As reb said, "Obviously, Cubs will be making a priority to get as close as possible to acquiring a top-end SP. ...Trying is one thing. Achieving it another." Agree completely. Competition will be tough! Who knows if any high-end guys would take an offer to join a Cubs lottery team?
2. Curt's WAR-list: not that many guys who are currently good who might become available. Who knows how many will hit the market? And all the top guys are in their 30's, many some years is. How many good years do good-now guys have left?
3. Sometimes special guys withstand age better than normal guys. (Verlander....). Is deGrom one of those? He's missed a lot of time .....
4. I assume they'll want to resign Smily.
5. I'm interested in Senga. At 29, he's not young, but not ancient? He might be as happy to sign with us as with other teams? Maybe with Suzuki already here, he'd almost feel more comfortable with the Cubs? *If* he turned out to be good, you could keep him for a while. I doubt he'll cost as much as the top American stars. But, yeah, whether he's good enough to be worth pursuing, I have no idea? Maybe his upside is little better than Assad, beats me?
6. The Cubs hot finish hasn't helped the tank or draft. But I wonder if it might facilitate some top guys to be willing to consider the Cubs? Nola's Phillies just got swept by the Cubs, and the Mets too; maybe that make Nola and Degrom more willing to consider a Cubs offer?
7. With Curt, if you don't get a pretty good one, why bother? To guarantee a multi-year deal to a guy who might be no better than our young guys, what's the point? And once you give multi-year guarantee, that guy stays in the rotation even if you've got better younger guys.
8. Hendricks will be guaranteed a rotation spot, but I wonder how likely he is to be as good as our #5 guy? He's been a 4.8 ERA guy last year and this. It may be that on merit, he's not going to be as good as our other #5 options?
9. *IF* you re-sign Smily, and add Hendricks back, and add Senga or some other FA, that gives you four vets in FA, Stroman, Smily, and Hendricks. Steele and Wesenski for spots 5+6. Maybe Smily is NOT a guy you want to re-sign? Maybe 4 vets is too much? Perhaps you go after the good guy, and if you get your target you just say thanks to Smily and let him go?
10. The scenario of having a bundle of starter-capable guys in relief intrigues me. We've seen Keegan in relief, and he's been super valuable there. (For winning that is, not for tanking...). I can't ever recall having a surplus of competent starters. Given how rarely our starters pitch deep, and given the DH, the prospect of having several 3-4 inning guys like Keegan in the bullpen might actually be pretty neat?
11. Having a surplus is beyond memory. But there could be some power in having some surplus for trade, sooner or later?
12. Injuries happen, especially with guys like Hendricks, Smily, DeGrom... *IF* you had all three plus Stroman, the odds probably aren't great that you'll often have all four vets pitching healthy at the same time?
11.