Author Topic: Cubs in '22  (Read 43855 times)

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2070 on: October 02, 2022, 03:15:30 am »
Obviously, Cubs will be making a priority to get as close as possible to acquiring a top-end SP. Every beat writer says that. It’s a non-issue. Yes, they will.

Trying is one thing. Achieving it another.

Would also make sense to bring back Smiley. And, Hendricks will get a spot if he’s physically able to go. Steele and Stroman of course. Everybody else will be competing for one of the remaining roster spots.

Then, season will start and as with vast majority of clubs, some SP spots will go haywire, what with injuries and the like—and you can throw out your best laid plans and work around what’s left.

As to Sampson, he has a .228 BABIP in his 6 most recent starts. I might compare him to 2009 Randy Wells who had a similar ERA/FIP as Sampson does. Then, in 2010, with virtually identical FIP as 2009, Wells’ ERA went up by over a run. Maybe Sampson can keep Cubs in games with a decent ERA but, for me, he’s a guy in that mix when other guys get hurt, probably a multi-inning reliever. Or, that could he all wrong and he’ll continue to be a “that’s baseball!” quality starter. Who knows?

davep

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2071 on: October 02, 2022, 08:43:45 am »
How many free agents do we think the Cubs will sign to major league deals this offseason?

2 SP
2 RP
1 OF
1 IF
1 C

Something like that?  Certainly no more than that, right?

"Free Agents" is a generic term where the quantity probably doesn't mean much.  I expect that the Cubs will sign at least 4 or 5 relief pitchers and 3 or 4 starting pitchers, most of which of "long shot" variety to be used as "Iowa express" pitchers.

But of significant free agents, I expect (hope) that they will sign one starter with credentials enough to be a presumed rotation starter, and at least one offensive player, probably (hopefully) a shortstop/third baseman, also of the higher tier of free agents.  Beyond that, they will obviously need a backup catcher at least to store at Iowa, and perhaps a closer that can be used as trade bait if someone from the farm emerges.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2072 on: October 02, 2022, 10:09:18 am »
"To move any of them you have to have a Cy Young type"
Okay, concede I misspoke there.   My point is that when you look at the potential FA pitchers, when you eliminate the old, the often injured, and the career year guys, you don't have a field much better than what we have.

Ron

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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2074 on: October 02, 2022, 08:13:20 pm »
Thanks for good discussion on SP and FA.  SP is hard to figure.  Thoughts:

1.  As reb said, "Obviously, Cubs will be making a priority to get as close as possible to acquiring a top-end SP. ...Trying is one thing.  Achieving it another."  Agree completely.  Competition will be tough!  Who knows if any high-end guys would take an offer to join a Cubs lottery team? 

2. Curt's WAR-list: not that many guys who are currently good who might become available.  Who knows how many will hit the market?  And all the top guys are in their 30's, many some years is.  How many good years do good-now guys have left? 

3.  Sometimes special guys withstand age better than normal guys.  (Verlander....). Is deGrom one of those?  He's missed a lot of time .....

4.  I assume they'll want to resign Smily. 

5.  I'm interested in Senga.  At 29, he's not young, but not ancient?  He might be as happy to sign with us as with other teams?  Maybe with Suzuki already here, he'd almost feel more comfortable with the Cubs?  *If* he turned out to be good, you could keep him for a while.  I doubt he'll cost as much as the top American stars.  But, yeah, whether he's good enough to be worth pursuing, I have no idea?  Maybe his upside is little better than Assad, beats me? 

6.  The Cubs hot finish hasn't helped the tank or draft.  But I wonder if it might facilitate some top guys to be willing to consider the Cubs?  Nola's Phillies just got swept by the Cubs, and the Mets too; maybe that make Nola and Degrom more willing to consider a Cubs offer?   

7.  With Curt, if you don't get a pretty good one, why bother?  To guarantee a multi-year deal to a guy who might be no better than our young guys, what's the point?  And once you give multi-year guarantee, that guy stays in the rotation even if you've got better younger guys. 

8.  Hendricks will be guaranteed a rotation spot, but I wonder how likely he is to be as good as our #5 guy?  He's been a 4.8 ERA guy last year and this.  It may be that on merit, he's not going to be as good as our other #5 options? 

9.  *IF* you re-sign Smily, and add Hendricks back, and add Senga or some other FA, that gives you four vets in FA, Stroman, Smily, and Hendricks.  Steele and Wesenski for spots 5+6.  Maybe Smily is NOT a guy you want to re-sign?  Maybe 4 vets is too much?   Perhaps you go after the good guy, and if you get your target you just say thanks to Smily and let him go? 

10.  The scenario of having a bundle of starter-capable guys in relief intrigues me.  We've seen Keegan in relief, and he's been super valuable there.  (For winning that is, not for tanking...).   I can't ever recall having a surplus of competent starters.  Given how rarely our starters pitch deep, and given the DH, the prospect of having several 3-4 inning guys like Keegan in the bullpen might actually be pretty neat? 

11.  Having a surplus is beyond memory.  But there could be some power in having some surplus for trade, sooner or later? 

12.  Injuries happen, especially with guys like Hendricks, Smily, DeGrom...  *IF* you had all three plus Stroman, the odds probably aren't great that you'll often have all four vets pitching healthy at the same time? 

11.

Tuffy

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2075 on: October 03, 2022, 01:50:17 am »
If the Cubs can win one of the next three games, they will have a .500 record for the second half of the season (since July 6).  They have already clinched a winning record since the All-Star break.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2076 on: October 03, 2022, 08:10:39 am »
How many free agents do we think the Cubs will sign to major league deals this offseason?

2 SP
2 RP
1 OF
1 IF
1 C...

OF and C, 1 each obviously. 

Want OF to play CF.  But a low-price, short-commitment roster-filler.  Roster-filler to PCA, kinda like havin Damon Buford when Corey Patterson was on the farm.  Shouldn't move the budget much. 

C, I'm assuming some low price backup, right?  That's the strong presumption.  I'm not totally sure, though?  Maybe they'd like to add a guy who they do like, and who might be younger than Gomes?  Won't be big ticket, but last year they valued backup catcher enough to go $6-per on Gomes, so it's conceivable they might again go with somebody a little more valued than a <$3M type backup?  Contreras has obviously been thoroughly discussed.  The Cubs don't want Willson as long-term primary catcher; Willson will want to be where he is wanted; so presumably it's over.  Still, it would be be disappointing if the Cubs didn't at least make qualifying offer to try to get the pick.  As reb has noted, it may not be impossible that Willson won't even be wanted on the market enough to beat the $19/1.  *IF* you ended up taking Willson back at $19, that would be a bigger ticket than I'd assume. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2077 on: October 03, 2022, 08:23:24 am »
Jeff, you project 1 for infield, and common discussion has presumed Cubs after a pricey SS.  As reb noted for top pitchers, "Trying is one thing.  Achieving it another."  That's true for SS as well. 

Still, between pitcher and infield, I'd think they could be financially wiling to pursue at least two big tickets. 

Or, perhaps even three? 
*Hoerner is basically the only existing infielder that I want as a preferred starter on a contender.
*Not sure there are any available.  But man a 3B who could make more contact than Wisdom would sure be nice. 
*And it's unclear how committed they want to be for Mervis.  I love the hypothetical of Mervis turning into a Goldbach or something great.  But, there is a DH, too.  Might there be interest in signing somebody who won't cost a zillion for 1B/DH?  *IF* Mervis both makes the team and actually does hit, he could still share 1B/DH time in some fashion.  Obviously I'd love for him to be fine at 1B, both bat and glove.  But glove-wise, I'm not sure? 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2078 on: October 03, 2022, 08:49:24 am »
I’d say Suzuki also has a pretty good chance of being a contender-level starter with a season of adjustment under his belt.

But yeah, the Cubs just need hitters, period, no matter where they play.  Both corner IF spots and the DH are pretty much wide open.  Maybe Mervis or Davis or Canario can contribute next year, maybe not.  But there are so many holes in the lineup that blocking anybody is the last thing they should be worried about.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2079 on: October 03, 2022, 10:56:04 am »
Craig, the purpose of my question was to try to figure out how full the 40-man roster can be when they set it for the Rule 5 draft.

My overly simplified logic is:

(Current 40-man) - (Casualties) + (Minor league adds) + (Slots for free agents with major league deals) = 40

Of course, trades, additional cuts, waiver claims, etc. after the Rule 5 deadline can change this arithmetic.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2080 on: October 03, 2022, 11:53:28 am »
Hoyer was asked Saturday about new shift-rules.  He commented that it may increase the importance of 1B defense and range.  I'm not sure I tracked it well? 
1.  I think the idea is that versus lefties, if you can't shift with 3 defenders on the right, that you'll need your 1B to be able to handle more? 
2.  And versus pull righties, the 2B may still slide over as far as the rules permit, again leaving a wide slice of the right side for the 1B.  (This obviously wouldn't be any more extreme than applies now, right?).

Whatever the thinking, Hoyer was talking defense and athleticism for 1B.  Not sure whether Mervis has either?  Or, maybe he's getting better constantly and will actually turn out just fine?  Beats me.  But how the Cubs think about that may impact how they make their decisions. 

In the Hendry era, the Cubs often signed roster-fill guys when highly-rated prospects were supposedly coming along.  Damon Buford for Corey. Mark Grudzialanek ahead of Bobby Hill?  Eric Karros was added the winter after Heeseop Choi had already debuted. 

I'm kinda guessing they'd like to add a Karros-esque guy?   *IF* Mervis succeeds, and Karros too, there are plenty of DH AB's to share.  *IF* they want Mervis to show he can bounce back and do it again for a month or two at Iowa, that could work then, too.  If Mervis flops, you'd maybe have an anti-awful alternative? 


CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2081 on: October 03, 2022, 12:15:21 pm »
Not much in that batch either:

FIRST BASEMEN

José Abreu (36 years old, 6.1 WAR)
Anthony Rizzo (32, 4.6) -- Can opt out
Josh Bell (30, 4.2)
Brandon Belt (35, 3.4)
Yuli Gurriel (39, 2.4)
Jesús Aguilar (33, 1.0) -- Mutual option
Eric Hosmer (33, 0.8) -- Can opt out
Carlos Santana (37, 0.2)
Miguel Sanó (30, 0.0) -- Club option
Yoshi Tsutsugo (30, -1.5)

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2082 on: October 03, 2022, 01:05:31 pm »
One guy many of you mention for next year is Steele.   Some of you like peripherals...his aren't great.   In spite of his success, Ross often pulled him after 4 or 5 because he was already nearing 100 pitches.  He really struggles to go deep into games.  So let's not be fooled by traditional records there.  He needs work in the lab.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2083 on: October 03, 2022, 01:30:50 pm »
What don't you like about Steele's peripherals?

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2084 on: October 03, 2022, 03:55:04 pm »