Author Topic: Cubs in '22  (Read 41816 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2265 on: October 15, 2022, 11:53:33 pm »
Thanks for clarification on fangraphs defensive ratings, that they are not relative to position but are relative to all baseball players.  Embarrassing, I should have know that!  So, the synopsis seems to be that Abreu has been decent defensively,

The Cubs payroll has lots of space.  I agree with reb, the cost for a guy like Abreu for a 2-years-guaranteed deal is too small to impact a Correa/Bogaerts/Turner pursuit.  If you go after a big-ticket like that, you go as hard as you choose to go, and an Abreu-level guy has zero to do with it. I think they could fit Bogaerts, Abreu, Senga, David Robertson, and some Damon Buford for CF, and some backup catcher. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2266 on: October 16, 2022, 02:30:31 am »
So, 87-win team will be playing 89-win team in the NLCS.

Let me suggest that notion itís not worth trying to put together a  87/89 win Cubs team in 2023 that can win a weak NL Central isnít looking too persuasive today.

Those 100+ win Dodgers, Braves, MetsÖÖ.GONE.

And I can tell you why this happened:

Thatís Baseball!


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2267 on: October 16, 2022, 07:47:53 am »
Thanks for clarification on fangraphs defensive ratings, that they are not relative to position but are relative to all baseball players.  Embarrassing, I should have know that!  So, the synopsis seems to be that Abreu has been decent defensively,

The Cubs payroll has lots of space.  I agree with reb, the cost for a guy like Abreu for a 2-years-guaranteed deal is too small to impact a Correa/Bogaerts/Turner pursuit.  If you go after a big-ticket like that, you go as hard as you choose to go, and an Abreu-level guy has zero to do with it. I think they could fit Bogaerts, Abreu, Senga, David Robertson, and some Damon Buford for CF, and some backup catcher. 

The defensive value is what goes into the WAR calculation. So a 1B starts off at -12.5 runs and a DH at -17.5 runs. If you wanted to look at how the defense rates OOA, URZ/150, DRS in some combination is probably the best way.

Abreu, outside of 2014, has been slightly negative to slightly positive on defense by DRS.  He -12 for his career but -10 came in 2014. UZR/150 has him -2.3 for his career.  OOA has him at -10 since 2016. So the metrics have him slightly negative, but they bounce around.

For a comparison Rizzo is 68 DRS, 3.6 UZR/150, 22 (since 2016) OOA for his career.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2022, 07:58:06 am by CUBluejays »
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2268 on: October 16, 2022, 08:22:34 am »
Thanks, Blue helpful to know. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2269 on: October 16, 2022, 08:26:43 am »
So, 87-win team will be playing 89-win team in the NLCS.
...

Will be interesting over time to see how the new playoff format rolls.  Hoyer's comment was that teams playing the 3-game wildcard series would be tired, and that the rest for the bye teams would be really advantageous.  But I often wonder if resting and getting out of rhythm doesn't really necessarily help baseball hitters?  And if getting tired is really a think for guys who are living all their lives to get into playoffs and the adrenalin is riding high?  Or maybe it's totally random, just baseball. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2270 on: October 16, 2022, 08:52:19 am »
Machado, Soto, HarperÖ.  Still a lot of super-stars in the NLCS.

Get the super-stars and build a good team around them.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2271 on: October 16, 2022, 09:28:52 am »
Maybe the Padres would like to let Tatis go for cheap.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2272 on: October 16, 2022, 09:56:16 am »
It would fun to try and come up with what Tatisís value is. Amazing talent with steroid and injury issues plus a huge contract and some off the field judgment issues (motorcycle accident, reporting injuries).


Ron

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2273 on: October 16, 2022, 10:33:40 am »
It would fun to try and come up with what Tatisís value is. Amazing talent with steroid and injury issues plus a huge contract and some off the field judgment issues (motorcycle accident, reporting injuries).



He would fit right in with the sort of personal characteristics that the Cubs say they prioritize. (Not)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2274 on: October 16, 2022, 11:26:43 am »
I mean the Padres are unlikely to want to trade him at low value if they believe in him and if they did want to trade him it should be a red flag. That said it would be more of a Theo to trade for him. Hoyer doesnít seem to be someone who wants to take a big risk.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2275 on: October 16, 2022, 12:16:42 pm »
When we think of the 2016 Champs, most of us think of the "kids": Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant.  Often forgotten is how Theo used the age-old plan of mixing youth with veterans who could provide leadership and experience.   First was Lester, who encouraged bringing Ross aboard.  Heyward came along in there somewhere as did Floyd.  Strop and Lackey were important, and Chapman at the end.  More kids: Schwarber, Contreras, Arrieta.  And the final nail in the construction: Zobrist.

That's why I hope Hoyer looks over the crop and brings in missing pieces not just superstars.  The Padres have been looking to get rid of Wil Myers for years.  Sure Red Sox would like to unload Hosmer.  Not both, for gawdsakes, just one.  Playoff experience, first basemen, probably would require a fifth outfielder and pick up some of their salary.  Cheaper than one might think.   That sort of thing.   As I suggested earlier, look to trade for people like Bellinger...people who could still rebound and be another "star" some of you are looking for.  Again, for Dodgers, could be a salary dump.   That's all I'm suggesting.   We don't need superstars, necessarily sucking away our assets.  Correa, maybe.  Abreu, hell no.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2276 on: October 16, 2022, 12:41:28 pm »
I agree completely with your reasoning, but only partially with your conclusion.

I would rather not sign Correa at this point.  But Abreu seems to be the kind of veteran piece that would fit right in, especially if he were rather inexpensive.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2277 on: October 16, 2022, 01:48:26 pm »
Per North Side bound, I believe they quoted Hawkins as saying the following yesterday on The Score: 
Quote
To really unpack the depth question, itís interesting looking back at where the Cubs came from. What happened in that run leading up to 16 was that it was unheard of to have that many heralded prospects all who made significant impacts to an organization. I have not seen that outside of that one time. Everywhere else, all other 29 teams, they donít know; they donít know whoís going to make an impact at the major league level. No one knew that Jose Ramirez was going to be Jose Ramirez. People thought Shane Bieber was good. Did they think he was a Cy Young winner? Absolutely not. And then you can look at the Cubs and guys like Kyle Hendricks who wasnít even on a top 30 list going into the season that he made a really large impact on the Cubs in 2014 or 2015.


that doesn't read full tank to me.