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Author Topic: Cubs in '22  (Read 44057 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #75 on: October 04, 2021, 11:29:39 am »
Quote from: craig on October 01, 2021, 10:14:42 pm
Tyler Chatwood was three.  There's advantage in getting some extra control if you're signing a guy your scouts think is going to be better in future.  Not sure if the Cubs will find guys like that, or if they do whether the guy they think might be a breakout guy will be, or will be more Chatwood. 

I was listening to Sharma/Mooney/Taylor's podcast and they put into a better explanation of what I was thinking.  The Cubs aren't going to really be competing in the next 2 years.  They are going to try and field a better team, but I don't think they are going to want to sign a free agent to high dollar 3+ year deals.  The best years of that contract is going to be where the Cubs need it the least.  Correa is probalbly the only guy that could make sense age wise, but he has injury issues and may not stay at SS long term.

They should be able to get somebody like Noah Syndergaard for a 1-2 year deal with a high AAV.  Then try a find a another decent started with the same type of deal.  Then look at guys like Fulmer to compete with Thompson/Steele/Mills to round out the rotation.  Most likely the team gets blown up again at the deadline, but it might generate enough interest on for them to sell some tickets.  Target a guy like Conforto and offense and will in some holes.  I could see they Cubs spending a lot of money and generating buzz, it just isn't going to be guys that are going to guaranteed dollars when the Next Great Cubs Team (TM) is around.

They need to try and find the next Gausman or Ray, talented but flawed guys.  Hopefully they can, but finding the next Chatwood is a much more likely.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2021, 11:37:38 am by CUBluejays »
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JR

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #76 on: October 04, 2021, 11:36:44 am »
I still wish we would make a play to re-sign Bryant or Baez, but that's probably a pipe dream at this point.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #77 on: October 04, 2021, 11:55:59 am »
Quote from: JR on October 04, 2021, 11:36:44 am
I still wish we would make a play to re-sign Bryant or Baez, but that's probably a pipe dream at this point.

Baez is somebody I could see not being able to get a big dollar, multiyear deal.  So he could end up getting a pillow contract and the Cubs have $$$ and an opening at SS.  If you listen to Kevin Goldstein talk about it him, he may not have much of a market.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #78 on: October 04, 2021, 12:18:12 pm »
I agree that Baez is probably the most likely of the three to be resigned.  The rumors were that the Mets were the only team with a lot of interest in him, and they might not want him for a multi year deal.  I wouldn't object to them signing him for a multi year contract, if the AAV was somewhere below 20 million per year.

Regardless, I hope they sign one long term offensive player to act as an anchor, and spend whatever is left over for the best starting pitcher they can get.  I think they have enough offensive potential in the minors, so depending upon how they progress, strengthen the starting staff each year.  Rinse and repeat.

I hope they also resign Contreras next summer, if they can fit it into their budget.  If not, trade him at the deadline.

Brennen Davis might be with the team next year.  At the very least, they should have a much better idea of whether or not he can be an impact player.  With the exception of shortstop, they seem to be adequate in the infield, until a better player comes along.  I'm sure that Happ will be in left field next year, for better or worse, and if Hoerner is moved to center, their outfield will also be set, until an opportunistic improvement is made, so the starting staff is the place to put their money.

If PCA turns out to be as good and as ready as some seem to think, that might put Happ on the market right around the trade deadline.  If he is on one of his hot streaks, he could bring back a pretty good haul.  Maybe the Reds would like a home town product that hits well in their park.
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JR

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #79 on: October 04, 2021, 12:24:12 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 04, 2021, 11:55:59 am
Baez is somebody I could see not being able to get a big dollar, multiyear deal.  So he could end up getting a pillow contract and the Cubs have $$$ and an opening at SS.  If you listen to Kevin Goldstein talk about it him, he may not have much of a market.

Seems like you could at least count the Mets and their deep pockets out as a bidder, so that would help bring his market down at least a little bit.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #80 on: October 04, 2021, 12:58:13 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 04, 2021, 11:29:39 am
I was listening to Sharma/Mooney/Taylor's podcast and they put into a better explanation of what I was thinking.  The Cubs aren't going to really be competing in the next 2 years.  They are going to try and field a better team, but I don't think they are going to want to sign a free agent to high dollar 3+ year deals.  ....
They should be able to get somebody like Noah Syndergaard for a 1-2 year deal with a high AAV.  ....
They need to try and find the next Gausman or Ray, talented but flawed guys.  Hopefully they can, but finding the next Chatwood is a much more likely.

Thanks, blue.  This thinking makes sense.  I think a key on the ≥3 years bit is the "high dollar" factor.  For sure, it wouldn't make sense to do a Lester-type deal now, for guys who are already established stars and are north of 30-years-old. But more modest ≥3+ deals for younger guys who for whatever reason you think have NOT hit their peak yet, that's different.  To do a Chatwood-type deal, it wasn't a budget-buster, and there was a chance to get a breakout guy. Talented-but-flawed.  I'd like to get 3-4 years on a guy like that so that *IF* they hit, the guy can be a player when they ARE competing.  Gausman, Ray.  I wish last winter they'd signed DeSclafini (sp?) to a 3-year-deal-with-club-option. 


Ron and birdbath have mentioned being way down on the season-tickets list; now they've flown up because demand is way down.  I don't imagine after the second half of this season, that Rickets wants to really plan the next two years with nothing but Volstad and Maholm and Feldman type guys like Theo and hoyer did in 2012 and 2013.  13/14 they also signed Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel. 


I'd guess they'd be shooting at some guys more in the perceived Jackson-Chatwood talented-but-flawed category, who were perceived as higher-ceiling than Maholm and Feldman. 



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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #81 on: October 04, 2021, 01:18:00 pm »
The problem with doing it this year is the 2 best years of the contract are going to be wasted on what are really non-cometativr years.

Look at Lester for example his first 2 years he was a 5 fWAR pitcher. Year 3 was 3 fWAR, then 1.8, 2.7.

You want the most money available to fill holes when The Next Hreat Cubs Team (TM) is taking the field. Maybe if things work out next year it will make more sense. Maybe they sign Willson to an extension to help sell tickets. The Cubs choose a path and they need to stick with it.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2021, 02:36:01 pm by CUBluejays »
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #82 on: October 04, 2021, 01:20:53 pm »
The only QO guy I could see Cubs willing to sign and give up that high 2nd round pick is Correa (probably Seager too but don’t see him leaving LA).

Correa will play almost all of 2022 at age 27 (9/22 birthdate). (NY media seem to think Conforto getting a QO, so he’s likely out).

SS is, of course, a big deal and Correa probably stays a SS a very long time n/w his size, as Cal did for so long. These guys are just natural SSs. Think that Cubs will be loath to lose that pick (assuming new cba keeps that in place, at least for 2022).

But, hard to argue that Correa isn’t worth a 2nd round pick. Think Cubs would seriously consider a long-term deal for a player of his caliber, even with the rebuild.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #83 on: October 04, 2021, 01:25:14 pm »
By the way, Cubs not only pick #7 in the draft, but also pick #7 in Rule 5 draft. So, possible might take a flier on somebody.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #84 on: October 04, 2021, 03:44:29 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 04, 2021, 01:18:00 pm
The problem with doing it this year is the 2 best years of the contract are going to be wasted on what are really non-cometativr years.

Look at Lester for example his first 2 years he was a 5 fWAR pitcher. Year 3 was 3 fWAR, then 1.8, 2.7. ...

I agreed that you don't sign an old Lester who was a huge-ticket and who was guaranteed big dollars through ages 36-37.  Like you said, the best 2 years were going to be the first two years. 

But that wouldn't necessarily apply to a Chatwood type.  A not-so-old guy who hadn't-hit-his-peak yet. 

Ted Lilly was 30 when Hendry signed him.  He pitched four solid seasons with the Cubs.  His 3rd year was his best, an all-star season, and his 4th was still solid.  There was no age-based decline.  He was never as good as Lester, so his contract wasn't Lesteresquely humungous; Lilly's never became a big burden, and wouldn't have been so even had he declined by years 3 or 4.  He hadn't pitched his best baseball when he was signed, and his best years were ahead.  Hendry did not regret his 3rd and 4th years of salary. 

I'm saying that the Cubs could be willing to offer some 3-4 year deals, for guys who won't be very old on the back end; for guys who haven't become stars yet; for guys who whose contracts won't be Lesteresque in size or duration.  If they take one or two 3- or 4-year shots on somebody like Lilly (a success) or Chatwood (a fail), I would be neither surprised or disgusted. 
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Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #85 on: October 04, 2021, 03:54:40 pm »
Steven Matz is 31, but has low mileage...
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ben

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #86 on: October 04, 2021, 05:24:55 pm »
NO doubt, it's about pitching!  Fantastic for the Cubs in 2016 (and latter half of '15 with Jake A), terrible this season (and most)!

It sure could help if Marquez comes back healthy and focused next season. 

He's probably a reliever next season IF he makes the bigs, and that's only IF he has command.  But he's got the upside we're looking for. 

Too bad only about 1 in 3 of those guys tend to come anywhere close to hitting their projected ceilings.

Giants seem to figure out that complex equation better than any team and have for a long time.
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method

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #87 on: October 04, 2021, 05:48:29 pm »
Should target pitchers at organizations that constantly fail at developing them. Go get John Means and Zac Gallen. cost might not be crazy then tie them up.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #88 on: October 04, 2021, 10:44:34 pm »
Quote from: method on October 04, 2021, 05:48:29 pm
Should target pitchers at organizations that constantly fail at developing them.

Doesn't that end with the Cubs targeting their own system?
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #89 on: October 04, 2021, 11:32:29 pm »
Quote from: craig on October 04, 2021, 03:44:29 pm
I agreed that you don't sign an old Lester who was a huge-ticket and who was guaranteed big dollars through ages 36-37.  Like you said, the best 2 years were going to be the first two years. 

But that wouldn't necessarily apply to a Chatwood type.  A not-so-old guy who hadn't-hit-his-peak yet. 

Ted Lilly was 30 when Hendry signed him.  He pitched four solid seasons with the Cubs.  His 3rd year was his best, an all-star season, and his 4th was still solid.  There was no age-based decline.  He was never as good as Lester, so his contract wasn't Lesteresquely humungous; Lilly's never became a big burden, and wouldn't have been so even had he declined by years 3 or 4.  He hadn't pitched his best baseball when he was signed, and his best years were ahead.  Hendry did not regret his 3rd and 4th years of salary. 

I'm saying that the Cubs could be willing to offer some 3-4 year deals, for guys who won't be very old on the back end; for guys who haven't become stars yet; for guys who whose contracts won't be Lesteresque in size or duration.  If they take one or two 3- or 4-year shots on somebody like Lilly (a success) or Chatwood (a fail), I would be neither surprised or disgusted. 


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

If I’m Jed a Hoyer I’m trying to get Jon Gray and Noah Synderguard on a 1 year prove it deal with a high AAV. The pitching class just isn’t that good. Synderguard, Hendricks, Gray, Mills/Steele/Thompson/free agent flawed guys could be a fun rotation. Pixie Dust the bullpen and add a hitter or 2 and you have a team that could be not awful or have some decent trade chips at deadline.

Rodriguez is probably the only guy I would go multiple years on, but I’d be really nervous about it. He probably gets a decent contract too.

I want the Cubs to have the ability to add Lester, Zobrist and Lackey level players when they are good again and I want a clean balance sheet and spots to be able to put them into. 

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