Which of the current 60-day IL guys do we think are going to survive the 40-man roster manipulations leading up to the Rule 5 draft?
Kyle Hendricks - yes, for sure
Codi Heuer - ? will they carry him through his rehab? (arb eligible for 2023, but not in a position to get much of a raise)
Alec Mills - out of options, so probably not
Ethan Roberts - ? will they carry him through his rehab?
Alexander Vizcaíno - ? never did report to the team this season
Brad Wieck - out of options, so probably not
Jason Heyward - no, for sure
Rafael Ortega - out of options, so probably not
Hendricks and Heuer. Maybe Roberts.
1. Heuer had his surgery in March, and is already doing some light throwing.
https://cubsinsider.com/2022/09/06/reliever-codi-heuer-already-throwing-again-6-months-after-tj-surgery/ I think he could be back early or by start of season.
2. If one of Heuer-Hendricks-Roberts was to get de-rostered, it would be Roberts. 1st, Roberts had his surgery in June, so he's probably not going to be pitching at big-league level never season. 2nd, I'm not sure his pitching value is that high that it would be horrible to risk losing him? Is the post-surgery Roberts really going to be meaningfully better than the other collection of relievers the Cubs have moving up the pipeline? 3rd, there's a pretty good chance that if we de-roster him, the league will be fine to let us keep him and let us rehab him. Still, I think healthy Roberts looked like he was going to be useful, so I'd like to keep him. Plus, I think it might send a good message to other prospects that the team sticks with you even through injury? He was a control guy, and given that we've got lots of good-stuff-wildmen relievers, a control guy could be really refreshing.
Hoyer might actually like to have a 60-day sitting on his 40? For example, Roberts spot could then be used for Mervis, or some non-roster pitcher who pitches his way onto the staff.