Author Topic: Cubs in '22  (Read 43808 times)

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2010 on: September 27, 2022, 06:38:12 pm »
"different", I believe CBJ meant to say.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2011 on: September 27, 2022, 07:55:18 pm »
What? One that can’t hit or throw?

Tuffy

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2012 on: September 27, 2022, 08:01:55 pm »
I can't believe how they're treating Contreras.  I've never liked the catcher-worship that seems to be on the rise in baseball, but he's the kind of guy you build a team around.
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Tuffy

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2013 on: September 27, 2022, 08:16:55 pm »
Here's an oddity: Cubs pitchers have issued 19 intentional walks, but the six pitchers who have thrown the most innings have not issued any of them.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2014 on: September 27, 2022, 08:29:12 pm »
Damn phone autocorrect, yes a different type of catcher. More like Gomes.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2015 on: September 27, 2022, 11:06:31 pm »
Obviously, Sharma is very skeptical that Cubs will do much to retain Contreras long-term, but Sharma doesn't actually say Cubs won't offer him a multi-year deal. 

Says Contreras shouldn't be priority #1 in relation to a big bat at another position or a top notch SP. And, strongly implies Cubs won't get into a big dollars competition to retain him for a contract that he "deserves."

But, what if the Contreras market is tepid?  Don't think Sharma is saying Cubs won't offer him a multi-year deal at the "right" price, that is, the Cubs price.  So, kind of depends on the market out there.  If Cubs don't like his catching, can use him in different ways--if the price is right.

If Cubs intend to offer him a QO, as seems likely, that's already a $19 or so base salary for year one.  He might not get anywhere near that per season in a 3-year deal, anywhere.  Who knows?  Perhaps the lack of trade interest at the deadline is prescient. So, room to haggle.  What seems clear from Sharma's piece is that Cubs are not going to do a Sal Perez/Grandal type of deal with Contreras.  But, what if nobody else does either?
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2016 on: September 28, 2022, 09:11:13 am »
Man, Reb really wants to believe there is a real chance Contreras will get a deal with the Cubs.   ;)


https://theathletic.com/3636089/2022/09/27/cubs-willson-contreras-possible-farewell-wrigley-field/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

I'm thinking we should get used to the idea of him being gone.  But what do I know?
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 09:28:17 am by Ron »

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2017 on: September 28, 2022, 10:00:53 am »
With regards to the issue of Willson's game calling, it does seem on the surface that the starting pitching results have been better without Willson behind the plate (at least recently).  Don't know if the data would back this up over the course of the season(s).

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2018 on: September 28, 2022, 10:08:42 am »
With regards to the issue of Willson's game calling, it does seem on the surface that the starting pitching results have been better without Willson behind the plate (at least recently).  Don't know if the data would back this up over the course of the season(s).

Sahadev Sharma on Yan Gomes


If you're curious what the Cubs may be looking for in a catcher going forward, I think this piece on Yan Gomes that I wrote the other day sums up the qualities many teams now look for in their backstop. Offense is secondary at the position:

https://theathletic.com/3605032/2022/09/19/yan-gomes-cubs-catcher/
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 10:12:57 am by Bennett »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2019 on: September 28, 2022, 10:47:09 am »
Agree with those thoughts, reb.  A couple thoughts, some redundant to yours:

1.  I agree with Ron, of course Contreras will probably go. 

2. Reb, I wasn't certain how much was Sharma's view, versus an accurate reflection of the Cubs view?  He thinks he knows the Cubs mind, and probably he's right; but does he know?  Might he be wrong?  "In general, it just sounds like the Cubs are going in a different direction with catching. They want the game manager, the catcher who puts all his energy on the pitching staff and game planning, and any offense is a bonus."  *"The reality is, Contreras isn’t the type of catcher they want.... It’s just not the direction the Cubs are going with the position."

3.  Sharma frames his discussion from an exaggerated question.  "Shouldn't [Contreras] be the #1 priority?".  Well duh, obviously not.  But comping a guy who might perhaps be available for $19/1 or $45/3 versus some SS who might cost $300 or whatever is a kind of silly framework.  Given that the Cubs have a lot of money, they can sign a SS and a pitcher and Contreras besides.  And obviously you don't always get what you want.  Saying "there are SS's, and the cubs would like one", doesn't mean other teams won't want SS too, and that the couple of good SS's won't prefer to sign with other teams that have some offense. 

4.  I think Sharma is unrealistic in his optimism for offense.  He thinks adding one SS bat upgrade and going with a full-time bad-hitting defensive catcher, that the offense is going to be above-average?  I don't think so.  Scoring is a huge challenge now, and looking forward. 

5.  I also think Sharma might be a little extreme in allusion to Contreras catching "once a week".  Gomes will turn 36 next year.   Does Sharma think he's going to be a 6-games-a-week guy next year?  I suspect that's expecting too much from him.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2020 on: September 28, 2022, 11:17:08 am »
I don't think that the Cubs will have a top tier offense next season.  But at the same time, I believe that it is likely to be much better than it has been this year.

Although no rookie is certain to succeed, especially his first year, I would still place my bet that Mervis would perform offensively at a higher rate than Rivas et al has this year.  And with Davis and Canario as potential CFs, I would also expect a higher level of perfomance than Ortega/Hermasillo had this year.  Finally, I think it is highly likely that they will bring in a free agent that will play either shortstop, moving Hoerner to second, or bring in a third baseman.  And the future does not end after 2023.  Offense is still a strong point for the system's future, with PCA, Cassie, Alcontara all reaching AA/AAA next season and knocking at the door for 2024.

I hope they re-sign Contreras.  I think that getting good offense from a catcher who's defense is acceptable, is a big plus.  And I think that his defense is more than acceptable.

I still think that the Cubs will sign a better-than-average pitcher and a better than average shortstop/third baseman this off season, and that they will be a much better team next season.  As good as the Cardinals?  No.  As good as the Brewers.  Very probably.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2021 on: September 28, 2022, 12:12:22 pm »
With regards to the issue of Willson's game calling, it does seem on the surface that the starting pitching results have been better without Willson behind the plate (at least recently).  Don't know if the data would back this up over the course of the season(s).

Let’s put Contreras-resign with Cubs aside for a moment and just focus on the topic of catchers working with a pitching staff.

Working with the staff is one of the few non-quantifiable components of baseball still out there. For sake of discussion, let’s assume that Contreras is deficient there. And, let’s assume Sharma is right about Cubs disinterest in Contreras.

Doesn’t it say a lot about catchers working with a pitching staff that this component seems to trump all the other good things that Contreras does?  He hits; he’s a good mechanical catcher; he throws well; he’s a good clubhouse guy; he’s coming off a good season.

Pretty much everything he does is really good but the “working with pitching staff” is the death knell, apparently.

So, when we evaluate catchers generally, perhaps this should be viewed at the top of the heap? If you’re not good at this, your value is greatly diminished, notwithstanding framing, hitting, etc.

Because, look at the Contreras situation. Can’t really quantify, but it makes all the difference in the world.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2022 on: September 28, 2022, 12:45:46 pm »
232/259/360

That’s the catcher we want…

Oy vey!

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2023 on: September 28, 2022, 01:00:41 pm »
232/259/360

That’s the catcher we want…

Oy vey!

Gomes is kind of similar to the Indians long-time catcher Jim Hegan, a highly regarded catcher with a career slash line of    .228   .295   .344.  Had 5 career WAR and was around close to 20 years.

Many other guys like this in baseball history. Clubs have loved these guys forever. Even in these days of analytics that probably don’t measure their worth—whatever it is—they seem to find a home.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2024 on: September 28, 2022, 01:05:25 pm »
"If you're curious what the Cubs may be looking for in a catcher going forward, I think this piece on Yan Gomes that I wrote the other day sums up the qualities many teams now look for in their backstop." 

I think there are kinda 5 areas of defensive catching.  Catching-throwing-fielding are three.  (By catching, I'm thinking preventing wild pitches and passed balls; throwing preventing stolen bases; fielding preventing infield hits and successful sac bunts.). The more important two are pitch-framing and "working with pitchers", which involves calling pitches, game-planning, etc.. 

I wonder how important/essential the latter will be moving forward?
1.  When robo-umps arrive, that should obviate the pitch-framing factor, no?  If a catcher's glove sweeps outside on the catch inside of pulling into the heart, who cares?  So long as he's catching the ball and not compromising his catching or throwing?  How soon might robo-umps happen?

2.  Handling pitchers.  So, Gomes noticed Smily tick, and adjust game-plan mid-stream based on what he's seeing from Smily's game-to-game stuff and hitter responses.  With modern video and communication technology...  Can't you get pretty good video so that coach-Yan can see ticks, and see how hitters are responding?  Does it HAVE to be the live catcher behind the plate doing that?  Or could coach Yan see and respond to those things from the bench, the things that catcher-Yan is processing now?  The Cubs obviously aren't cutting-edge enough to fully maximize communication technology.  But won't many smart teams soon be using PitchCom technology? 

Won't progressive smart teams soon have their video and whatever technology watching each pitch (and each better) from the bench?  Noticing tics?  Noticing that today's cutter or curve isn't cutting or curving as well as normal, so maybe we should use it less?  And making pitch calls from the bench?  Why does the behind-the-plate catcher need to do all of that if PitchCom can do all of that from the bench? 

If in future a coach Yan can do from bench what catcher-Yan does now, in future will the smart teams still prioritize pitch-framing and pitch-calling catchers, when robo-umps and bench coaches can control those things? 

I guess I'm kinda wondering whether, as we project in the 2024-2028 contention window, whether it's strategic to focus on targeting 2010-2022-era priorities from catchers? 

Or will there continue to be lots of things that the behind-the-plate catcher can do and see and communicate, important things that bench-available technology simply cannot see and do and communicate?  Maybe so, I'm sincerely asking!  What are the intangible "working with pitchers" qualities that a catcher contributes that bench-coach-Yan won't be able to do from the bench? 
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 01:09:16 pm by craig »