Author Topic: Cubs in '22  (Read 41841 times)

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2040 on: September 29, 2022, 01:09:36 pm »
Just spend 400M on Judge and you can punt a lot.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2041 on: September 29, 2022, 01:45:51 pm »
Some of the discussion around prioritizing the defensive strengths of catchers (Gomes or otherwise) in managing a game and working with pitchers , the question has been raised whether utilizing technology would affect that. I don't see how technology would have any effect on that talent.


My impression is that these skill consists of qualities like understanding specific batters' strength and weaknesses, even as they are manifested within a current game; understanding how to assist the pitcher not only in the pitcher's mechanics but very much in the mental side as well. And as the catcher has the unique perspective of seeing the entire field, the catcher can become in essence a field manager as well. Seems like these were specific roles that Ross played for example. Lester used to say that Ross knew how to get the best out of him, and Ross talked about knowing when to get in Lester's face and when not to. 


I would be interested in others here who are way more knowledgeable of the nuances of the game and of the role of catchers would address this.  Thanks in advance to anyone who does so.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2042 on: September 29, 2022, 04:59:26 pm »
If Contreras ends up signing with Cardinalsóa club with a long history of catching adept with working with pitchersówill kind of blow up theory that catching offense on way out in relation to handling pitchers.

Of course, if youíre lucky enough to have a catcher who can hit, clubs generally like that too. Top four clubs for catching offense-using wRC+ are current playoff teams: Braves, Phils, Jays, Dodgers. (Cubs are #5).

And, majority of catching offense bottom feeders (pirates, Reds, Angels, DBacks, Rockies), are also-rans.

Also, keep in mind that while Astros passed on Contreras at trade deadline, they did upgrade catching offense by acquiring Vazquez from Boston.

So, this subject is a developing question that needs a lot more evidence before any conclusions can be reached.

And, Contreras/Cubs story has yet to be told. Think maybe where weíre at now is that it will take a tepid market to see a realistic chance for him to be back multi-year.

Of course, Cubs must like him some if willing to pay him around $19 for 2023!

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2043 on: September 29, 2022, 06:43:36 pm »
How many free agents do we think the Cubs will sign to major league deals this offseason?

2 SP
2 RP
1 OF
1 IF
1 C

Something like that?  Certainly no more than that, right?

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2044 on: September 29, 2022, 07:36:19 pm »
I think the Cubs would probably pay $19M for a bonus round draft pick at this point, so the QO is meaningless in terms of their feelings about Contreras.  Short-term financial obligations are absolutely the least of their concerns - the 2023 payroll is going to be insultingly low even if they're "aggressive" in the offseason.

I think people are overanalyzing this whole thing.  it should be obvious that no matter how much fans on a message board cry and toss their toys out of the pram at the prospect, the view of Contreras by those who matter is that he's not a good receiver/handler of pitchers.  The Cubs seem singularly uninterested in extending him and the rest of the league uninterested in trading much of value for him, despite his being a decent hitter and a great thrower behind the plate.  You don't need a lot of extrapolation to figure out why.  The direction of the game is to value catchers more for their overall skills defensively than as hitters, and Contreras doesn't fit the mold.  All the "bleed Cubbie blue" stuff is nice but it's stuff fans care about, not decision-makers.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2045 on: September 29, 2022, 08:40:43 pm »
Has Happís work in LF this season put him in contention for a Gold Glove?

Who would be his main competitors? Profar? I canít think of anyone else off the top of my headÖ

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2046 on: September 29, 2022, 11:09:06 pm »
Cubs will not be offering Contreras $19 if they feel the player is not worth that kind of money.

A host of free agents will NOT get a QO. Contreras seemingly will. That shows he has value for them. Cubs know it is possible he will accept. Thatís a reason that so few players actually get a QO.

Cubs could have traded him at the deadline and, therefore, taken themselves out of a QO situation with Contreras. Cubs didnít do that. Canít ignore that.

Many of us assumed that Contreras would be in a position similar to Sal Perez or Grandal when he hit free agency. Now, that looks unlikely. What we havenít considered much is, instead, a tepid market for him. Then what?

What does a tepid market look like here? 3/$50? 3/$40? More? Less?

What we donít know is what Cubs might offer multi-year when they are willing to commit $19 for one year. Of course it matters to Cubs to pay a guy $19. Meaningless? Come on. I can just see Hoyer explaining to Ricketts why spending $19, when they donít have to, is meaningless.

$19+10+10 on a 3-year deal? Who knows? Could depend on what market is out there for him. Donít think that Sharma really considered that possibility in his comments.

If Cubs donít care for Contrerasí game, why offer him 1/$19?

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2047 on: September 30, 2022, 01:53:17 am »
Has Happís work in LF this season put him in contention for a Gold Glove?

Who would be his main competitors? Profar? I canít think of anyone else off the top of my headÖ

Tyler OíNeill has won last two seasons.

But, heís having an off-year offensively and that seems to be a factor, as a practical matter.

Yes, Happ could win.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2048 on: September 30, 2022, 07:15:57 am »
I didnít factor in OíNeill because he has missed so much timeÖbut I looked at his stats from 2020 just now, and who knows?

His 2020 GG was nearly Palmeiro-bad. He played 50 games that year. 157 total PA, and OPSíd .621 , so his offense played no part.

Thatís terrible.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2049 on: September 30, 2022, 09:28:36 am »
This is a fine article on/interview with Jason Heyward by Patrick Mooney. I retain a lot of respect and appreciation for Heyward as a Cub and as a person.

https://theathletic.com/3642554/2022/09/29/jason-heyward-cubs-ownership-future/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2050 on: September 30, 2022, 09:43:54 am »
....I don't see how technology would have any effect on that talent.

My impression is that these skill consists of qualities like understanding specific batters' strength and weaknesses, even as they are manifested within a current game; understanding how to assist the pitcher not only in the pitcher's mechanics but very much in the mental side as well. And as the catcher has the unique perspective of seeing the entire field, the catcher can become in essence a field manager as well. Seems like these were specific roles that Ross played for example. Lester used to say that Ross knew how to get the best out of him, and Ross talked about knowing when to get in Lester's face and when not to.  ...

Thanks for your thoughts and input, Ron.  You may be completely right, and the Cubs may see it that way too. 

I guess I was wondering whether a coach could get in Lester's face; and that maybe the in-game clubhouse video might see if a batter is cheating to cover his weakness as well, or maybe better, than a catcher can, and could thus revise the approach as well as a live catcher can?  Whether with good live video, whether coaches might be able to recognize whether a guy's cutter isn't cutting well today, as well as a live catcher, and could revise the attack plan as well as a live catcher can? 

Hard to know.  After the Houston cheating, are teams even allowed to be having live high-quality video in the moment?  Even if so, is the quality of live video really that good?  Or does a real live Gomes experience each pitch in a way that video and Rapsodo just can't fully capture?  Or perhaps there's something about a teammate mental-gaming you, or getting in your face, that a coach just can't do?  Manager Ross just can't do it the way that teammate Ross could, or it doesn't get received in the same way? 

Maybe all that stuff should be the catcher, and it's worth losing a bunch of offensive runs to let the catcher do it rather than trying to have a coach do it? 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2051 on: October 01, 2022, 07:16:33 am »
2.  Blue, Do you have any recall of when or a link or anything to where Sharma said the Cubs claim to quantify the value?  Podcast or athletic print article?  I'd be curious to see or read more about that? 
3.  I wonder if smart analytical punters will revise their analysis plan in future when pitch-framing goes away?  And as they better utilize PitchCom? 
1) Having a good offense certainly helps punting a position
2) I believe it was a podcast around the the trade deadline.  It wasn't a long discussion, it was just Sharma stating it as a fact that the Cubs believe they can quantify it.
3) I don't think any of the teams I mentioned wouldn't play somebody like Kirk if they had him.  They just aren't spending money to get them and without a young stud they go for defense.  I think pitch framing has less to do with what these teams are looking at in catcher. 
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2052 on: October 01, 2022, 01:47:44 pm »
@CodifyBaseball

Only the Dodgers and Astros have lower starter ERAs in the second half than the Cubs!  It's now down to 3.01.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2053 on: October 01, 2022, 04:04:30 pm »
@CodifyBaseball

Only the Dodgers and Astros have lower starter ERAs in the second half than the Cubs!  It's now down to 3.01.

So no need to sign a free agent ace, right?  Kidding of course. But that is pretty remarkable, as in surprising, to be the case for a virtually full second half.  How to explain this?

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '22
« Reply #2054 on: October 01, 2022, 04:08:12 pm »
So no need to sign a free agent ace, right?  Kidding of course. But that is pretty remarkable, as in surprising, to be the case for a virtually full second half.  How to explain this?

The explanation is clear.

Thatís Baseball!