Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 5843 times)

Dave23

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Cubs in ‘23
« on: October 16, 2022, 04:39:41 pm »
Onward and upward…

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Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2022, 05:05:08 pm »
Onward and upward…

So we hope (and expect).

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2022, 05:19:55 pm »
Is this for 2123?
Informative Informative x 1 View List

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2022, 02:24:13 pm »
2023 payroll summary.  All values AAV.  Subject to change with trades, of course.

Players under contract:

Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667

Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):

Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000

Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck

Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or Hoerner extensions.

Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on the opening day roster at $800,000 each):

Subtotal $5,600,000

Running total = $108,841,667

That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.

$75-$85 million for 9 spots?

One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP?  Maybe one more auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league deal?

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2022, 04:40:17 pm »
Thanks, Jeff, very helpful. 

Jeff Horn 2023 payroll summary.  (so I can go back and search easily!)

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2022, 04:42:16 pm »
Heyward and Hendricks $35 expiring. 

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2022, 07:50:05 pm »
Running total = $108,841,667

$75-$85 million for 9 spots?

That would project the Cubs 2023 payroll to $185-195M.

Here are 2022 MLB payrolls:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Your projected range would put them somewhere around 10th overall.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs. And that's before considering the notion that the 2022 Cubs have supposedly "banked" some dollars to apply to future years' payrolls.



« Last Edit: October 17, 2022, 07:51:48 pm by ticohans »

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2022, 08:23:07 pm »
...Your projected range would put them somewhere around 10th overall.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs. And that's before considering the notion that the 2022 Cubs have supposedly "banked" some dollars to apply to future years' payrolls..

tico, could you expand on that?  Why is it implausible that the Cubs might elect to spend ~10th? 

Also, when you say that's "before considering" the banked-dollars notion, are you saying even with banked dollars, that ~10th is even then still an unimaginable scenario?  Or are you saying that ~10th is unimaginable before the banked dollars, but that with the addition of hypothetically banked dollars, perhaps ~10th might become plausible? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2022, 08:25:37 pm »
I do wonder whether there might be some league-wide increase in spending?  After two summers of Covid, then uncertainty with how long lockout would remain and what the new CBA would entail, might some teams have been a little guarded? 

In other words, if they hypothetically spent Jeff's hypothetical, which was ~10th last year, might that perhaps still only put them into 13-15th this upcoming year? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2022, 08:45:25 pm »
I also wonder how they process Heyward?  Obviously mlb bills him for 2023.  But I wonder whether in a sense "banked dollars" were accounted to erase Heyward obligation? 

It's interesting that Stroman's deal drops by $4 in 24.  Add that to Hendricks and Heyward, and it's $40 coming off. 

Happ and Hoerner are the only meaningful guys in the Arb stage.  Hoerner will be Arb 1 this year.  So he'll inflate.  But other than relief pitchers or Madrigal, it's a couple years out before built-in arb-inflation will start to be significant. 


Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2022, 10:01:34 pm »
tico, could you expand on that?  Why is it implausible that the Cubs might elect to spend ~10th? 

Also, when you say that's "before considering" the banked-dollars notion, are you saying even with banked dollars, that ~10th is even then still an unimaginable scenario?  Or are you saying that ~10th is unimaginable before the banked dollars, but that with the addition of hypothetically banked dollars, perhaps ~10th might become plausible? 

It’s not implausible, unfortunately.  It should certainly be unacceptable.

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2022, 08:43:14 am »
Oh, sorry, I misunderstood!  "I cannot imagine a scenario in which this would be acceptable for the 2023 Cubs." 
*I misread that, as Hoyer being the 2023 Cubs, who wouldn't accept spending into the top-10 yet at this point in the rebuild, in which case Jeff's $75-85 is too high. 
*But I obviously read that wrong: the idea is that Jeff's $75-85 is too low, especially with the banked dollars, and it's 2023 Cub fans who won't accept that level of spending. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2022, 09:12:54 am »
Just to put in some made-up dollars, just to use some names that have been suggested:

1.  Correa, $28
2.  Nimmo $20 or CF-to-be-named-later, $6
3.  Senga, $17
4.  Jose Abreu, $16
5.  Drew Smyly, $9
6.  David Robertson $9
7.  Backup C:  Willson $19 or backup C $5
8.  Reliever:  $4

Sum:  $122 (Willson + Nimmo)
$108 (Nimmo yes, Contreras no) or
$94 (no Willson or Nimmo)

My guesses are just dumb top-of-my-head, and not that market savvy, so maybe they're often 10-20% too low, beats me?  Thoughts? 

Just trying to get a ballpark feel for how much you might actually get for $90-120. 

My guess is no Willson and no Nimmo.  So that something like Correa-Senga-Smyly-Robertson-Abreu could fit. 





Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2022, 09:21:34 am »
No way Correa signs for that AV, IMHO.  And you’d be nuts to give Abreu that much.  The other numbers look pretty close.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2022, 09:38:28 am »
Abreu is intersting as a Cubs target.

He fills a need and would be available on a short term deal.  Call that the Hoyer sweet spot.

Thing is he's traded power for contact and had a below average ISO last year, so while he's a good offensive player he doesn't address the Cubs power deficiency. 

I kinda wonder if the Cubs would consider punting CF defense to improve the offense.  I don't see them committing long term, higher AAV money to an OF with the plethora of OF prospects that they have.   

Would the consider Bellinger as a bounce back guy or go punt defense and sign Conforto for LF and move Happ to CF.  Grisham would be another guy the Cubs might take a look at a bounce back guy.

It is really going to be an interesting off season.  My guess is the Cubs spend a lot of money, but not much long term money.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 09:52:42 am by CUBluejays »