Author Topic: Cubs in 23  (Read 6065 times)

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5440
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2022, 10:11:43 am »
At SS, my uninformed guess is they like Turner more than Correa, but how does the draft pick loss wind up changing that equation?

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11607
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2022, 10:54:42 am »
At SS, my uninformed guess is they like Turner more than Correa, but how does the draft pick loss wind up changing that equation?

Jeff, what do you think about Bogaerts?  He's the lesser defensively, perhaps by a lot, yes?   But I kinda feel like he's the best pure hitter, and a couple years younger than Turner, too. 

I almost feel like he'd be the most flexible for 2023.  Suppose Bogaerts could be blah but anti-awful at SS.  You could be going Wisdom-Bogaerts-Hoerner, *IF* Wisdom was hitting well.  Or, if Wisdom was in 3K-per-day mode, you could do Bogaerts-Hoerner-Madrigal? 

JeffH

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5440
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2022, 11:09:41 am »
Jeff, what do you think about Bogaerts?  He's the lesser defensively, perhaps by a lot, yes?   But I kinda feel like he's the best pure hitter, and a couple years younger than Turner, too. 

I almost feel like he'd be the most flexible for 2023.  Suppose Bogaerts could be blah but anti-awful at SS.  You could be going Wisdom-Bogaerts-Hoerner, *IF* Wisdom was hitting well.  Or, if Wisdom was in 3K-per-day mode, you could do Bogaerts-Hoerner-Madrigal? 

Only nine months' age difference between the two.

This would be a horrible look and something they would never do, but, if they signed Bogaerts, the best defensive alignment would probably be Bogaerts-Morel-Hoerner at 3B-SS-2B.  Morel looked best defensively at SS (to me).  I don't know what the metrics say.

Could they go Bogaerts-Hoerner-Morel?

method

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4211
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2022, 11:26:02 am »
I think the entire white sox team did that. It was a Frank Mennichino thing more then a Abreu thing. Top HR hitter was Vaughn, led the team with 17 HRs.

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11607
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2022, 11:38:26 am »
...
Could they go Bogaerts-Hoerner-Morel?

I I like that alignment. 

1.  If Morel knew that 2B was where the AB's were, I think he could focus there and improve to some degree? 

2.  I also like that because then Morel and Madrigal could both be competing for action, and maybe one or both will be anti-awful? 

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2022, 12:46:56 pm »
Hey Craig, yes, you've landed on the correct interpretation: there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least top 5 resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in the terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.

The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the Southsiders.

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2022, 01:26:44 pm »
2023 payroll summary.  All values AAV.  Subject to change with trades, of course.

Players under contract:

Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667

Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):

Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000

Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec Mills, Brad Wieck

Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or Hoerner extensions.

Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on the opening day roster at $800,000 each):

Subtotal $5,600,000

Running total = $108,841,667

That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.

$75-$85 million for 9 spots?

One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP?  Maybe one more auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league deal?

For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to come together:

C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M

BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K

(Heyward - $23M)


SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K

Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB payroll commitments.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 01:52:05 pm by ticohans »

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2022, 01:38:34 pm »
Curious how the board feels about the likelihood of Contreras accepting QO? Would more than double is 2022 salary, give him the opportunity to prove out this higher level of offensive output, and enter 2024 FA market without QO hanging around his neck, still "just" 31 years old...

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15933
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2022, 01:52:32 pm »
I think he's made it clear he wants to be somewhere where he feels wanted, and that clearly isn't the Cubs.


ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2022, 01:56:40 pm »
For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to come together:

C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M

BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K

(Heyward - $23M)


SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K

Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB payroll commitments.

Bookmark $30M for SS, $25M for SP1, $20M for CF, $10M for SP2, $10M for RP1, $5M for RP2. Would take 2023 payroll to about $230M ($23M of which is the sunk cost of Heyward's salary). That $230M number would have been 6th highest in 2022.

$30M at SS gets you one of the Big 4

$25M at SP1 gets you in the Senga-or-equivalent range

$20M at CF gets you Nimmo

$10M at SP2 gets you in the Smyly-or-equivalent range

$10M at RP1 gets you in the Robertson-or-equivalent range

$5M at RP2 gets you a 2022-Givens-type
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 02:50:11 pm by ticohans »

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15933
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2022, 02:16:48 pm »
What would that team project to win?

Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS, Nimmo, SP, Suzuki.  You still don't have a super star or legit ace on the team.  Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot.  The question is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a World Series contender?

I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy), then a bunch of 1-2 year deals.  You still maintain financial flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much worse. 

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2022, 02:23:32 pm »
Putting together some (hopefully) reasonable WAR projections around this roster:

C: Contreras - 3 WAR
1B: Wisdom - 1.5 WAR
2B: Hoerner  - 4 WAR
3B: Morel - 2 WAR
SS: Big 4 SS - 5 WAR
LF: Happ - 3 WAR
CF: Nimmo - 3 WAR
RF: Suzuki - 3 WAR

BN: Yan - 1 WAR
BN: Bote - 1 WAR
BN: Madrigal - 1 WAR
BN: McKinstry - 1 WAR
BN: Higgins - 0.5 WAR

SP: Senga -  3 WAR
SP: Steele - 3 WAR
SP: Stroman - 3 WAR
SP: Hendricks - 1.5 WAR
SP: Smyly - 1.5 WAR
 
RP: Robertson - 1 WAR
RP: Givens - 0.5 WAR
RP: Wick - 0.5 WAR
RP: Heuer - 0.5 WAR
RP: Sampson - 1 WAR
RP: Thompson - 1 WAR
RP: Alzolay - 1 WAR
RP: Hughes - 0.5 WAR

That results in about 47 team WAR. For context here are the 2022 team WAR leaderboards:

1) LAD - 63.5
2) HOU - 56.5
3) NYY - 54.7
4) NYM - 51.7
5) ATL - 51.5
6) TOR - 48.1
7) STL - 46.2
8 ) PHI - 44.3
9) SDP - 40.8
10) CLE - 40.5
Informative Informative x 2 View List

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2022, 02:34:35 pm »
What would that team project to win?

Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS, Nimmo, SP, Suzuki.  You still don't have a super star or legit ace on the team.  Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot.  The question is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a World Series contender?

I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy), then a bunch of 1-2 year deals.  You still maintain financial flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much worse. 

If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable. It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in the NL Central.

Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga. Plenty of roster space for maturing prospects and $$$ to sign players to extensions while still pursuing FA's at those positions where our farm system isn't able to produce.

Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar," with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.

« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 03:18:33 pm by ticohans »

ticohans

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4734
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2022, 02:40:11 pm »
Assuming all the above is reasonable from a salary and WAR projection perspective (big if's!) that means the Cubs go into 2023 with ~#6 overall payroll, the ~6th overall best team, and still have lots of financial flexibility in 2024 and beyond.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 03:19:30 pm by ticohans »

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11607
Re: Cubs in 23
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2022, 02:49:20 pm »
...: there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least top 5 resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in the terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.

The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the Southsiders.

"...multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA..." 

Good post.  No excuse to not be willing and not to try. 

The hesitation I have, and have expressed before, is whether FA really both can and will address as many of the needs as we want? 

1.  What if guys we want don't want us?  Bogaerts has deep roots by now in Boston.  What if Hoyer offers him $270 but he'd rather stay in Boston for $220?  Turner is in a fun city with a nice group of players, and their great team hasn't won a title yet with him on it, right?  What if he'd rather stay and achieve the WS goal in LA, for $180, even if Hoyer offers $240? 

In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no? 

2.  Pitchers?  What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for whatever reason?  Who knows?  Or if the Cub scouts don't really see Senga as being that good? 

There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions we need most.  2B or 3B, like nobody, right?