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Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 55117 times)

davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1860 on: March 21, 2023, 01:40:14 pm »
They have made these yearly projections for quite some time now.  Has anyone ever gone back and compared their projections to the actuals to determine how useful their projections are?
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1861 on: March 21, 2023, 01:44:17 pm »
 Madrigal and McKinstry do not impress computer algorithms.

I find this hard to believe.
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1862 on: March 21, 2023, 01:54:37 pm »
Quote from: Playtwo on March 21, 2023, 01:16:18 pm
The 2023 Cubs are projected to improve in WAR more at 1B than 2B!

I try not to be too retro in my view on such things, but this does not seem to make sense. But, hey, what do I know?
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1863 on: March 21, 2023, 01:58:35 pm »
It probably has something to do with the possibility that the Cubs would have had greater WAR with me playing first base last year.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1864 on: March 21, 2023, 03:13:22 pm »
Quote from: Playtwo on March 21, 2023, 01:58:35 pm
It probably has something to do with the possibility that the Cubs would have had greater WAR with me playing first base last year.
It would still a negative WAR however.
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1865 on: March 21, 2023, 03:37:37 pm »
I have always been anti-WAR.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1866 on: March 21, 2023, 05:16:57 pm »
I thought everyone from the 60s was dead.
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Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1867 on: March 22, 2023, 09:29:17 am »
Sharma on Keegan Thompson's velocity issue and how the Cubs are working with him to fix it.
https://theathletic.com/4334334/2023/03/22/cubs-keegan-thompson-velocity-struggles/
« Last Edit: March 22, 2023, 09:31:49 am by Ron »
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Dave23

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1868 on: March 22, 2023, 10:07:14 am »
Was just getting ready to share that…thanks, Ron…

It’s a great read for those who are interested in some of what Hottovy brings to the PC position…
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1869 on: March 22, 2023, 10:18:18 am »
Quote from: davep on March 21, 2023, 01:40:14 pm
They have made these yearly projections for quite some time now.  Has anyone ever gone back and compared their projections to the actuals to determine how useful their projections are?

The team projected wins usually are with a standard deviation, which I believe is +\- 5 wins.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1870 on: March 22, 2023, 11:50:31 am »
Yeah, usually within a standard deviation——EXCEPT when they're not.

It’s a Toy….and toys are fun.

That’s what it is. Fun.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1871 on: March 22, 2023, 02:31:11 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on March 22, 2023, 10:18:18 am
The team projected wins usually are with a standard deviation, which I believe is +\- 5 wins.

I'm sorry.  I was wondering more about specific position projections.  I suspect they are much more variable than full team projections.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1872 on: March 22, 2023, 02:45:21 pm »
I took Hoyer's comment as sparky.  He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring.
Quote from: Reb on March 22, 2023, 11:50:31 am
Yeah, usually within a standard deviation——EXCEPT when they're not.

It’s a Toy….and toys are fun.

That’s what it is. Fun.
this confuses me.  Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1873 on: March 22, 2023, 02:57:34 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on March 22, 2023, 02:45:21 pm
I took Hoyer's comment as sparky.  He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring. this confuses me.  Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?

We’re talking here about a fun tool that is mostly based on data. I am pointing out that this kind of tool has its limitations.

What I don’t like are uncorroborated “rumors” from sketchy non-journalist sources that plague the internet and sometimes get posted here. Mostly, these originally derive from folks who just make things up and have no reputation to lose, unlike an actual sports journalist.

Guessing that you can get the difference. Yes, even the former can be “fun.” Don’t see the fun in the latter, sorry.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2023, 02:59:18 pm by Reb »
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #1874 on: March 22, 2023, 03:41:09 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on March 22, 2023, 02:45:21 pm
I took Hoyer's comment as sparky.  He knows something, but since we know not much is out there, I fear to whom he's referring. this confuses me.  Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?

Individual projections don’t have error bars.  Some are better than others, but they aren’t great. 


Quote from: CurtOne on March 22, 2023, 02:45:21 pm
  Reb,, aren't you the one who jumps on people for hard sources and speculating because it was FUN?

Only Reb approved fun is allowed on this board. 
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