Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 6065 times)

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2022, 03:07:42 pm »
In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no? 

Yes, absolutely. The Cubs have the resources, flexibility, and depth of talent to overpay if that's what it takes. This is one of the advantages of being a big market team, and "overpaying" should not be viewed as an automatic negative.

2.  Pitchers?  What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for whatever reason?  Who knows?  Or if the Cub scouts don't really see Senga as being that good? 

If we don't pick up either Rodon or Senga, the pitching question does get tougher, to be sure. I'd be happy to sign any of DeGrom, Verlander, or Kershaw to a short term deal, but think it's likely all 3 stay with their current teams on new deals. Bassitt and Anderson are two intriguing options that lack the headliner stuff of a Rodon, but would still legitimately profile as +3WAR SP pickups. So it's not Rodon, Senga, or bust, but the quality of options does begin to fall apart after the Bassitt/Anderson tier. LIAB injury pickups include Severino, Thor, Eovaldi, Heaney, etc.

There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions we need most.  2B or 3B, like nobody, right?

Given the positional flexibility of Wisdom, Hoerner, and Morel, if the Cubs don't land one of the Big 4, they could absolutely sign someone in the Abreu-Rizzo-Mancini-Bell 1B class and reshuffle players around the diamond as necessary. Obviously preferable to sign one of the Big 4 SS and go from there, but the Cubs still have options if they don't.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 03:25:53 pm by ticohans »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #31 on: October 18, 2022, 03:26:17 pm »
If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable. It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in the NL Central.

Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga.

Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar," with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.



I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at least another near SS.

Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings.  Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you some extra money.  It is really hard to just spend your way to a good team.

I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a projection.  That team, just ball parking it would be right around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins.  It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big chunk.

Instead
C: Gomes/Hedges
1B: Abreu
2B: Hoerner
SS: Corerra
3B: Widom/McInstry/Morel
LF: Happ
CF: Bellinger (Grisham)/Morel
RF: Suzuki
SP: Stroman/Hendricks/Steel/Smyly/FA 1 year
RP: Britton/FA 1 year

They only long term payroll is Corerra.  I wouldn't be opposed to Senga, but I've seen him projected as more of a 3/4 vs TORP guy.  I really rather let the Cubs go bargin shopping there.

Long term payroll: $47 million.  And I really don't see much of a difference in how that team would project.  The Cubs are still spending money and the team might be viewed as an option for Ohtani/Soto with payroll to add.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2022, 03:39:05 pm by CUBluejays »

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #32 on: October 18, 2022, 03:49:51 pm »
I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at least another near SS.

Slight disagree, but I understand what you're saying here.

Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings.  Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you some extra money.  It is really hard to just spend your way to a good team.

$23M from Heyward is savings straight to the bottom line.

On replacing Stroman, I think we need to consider the rotation as a whole. Essentially, I'm hoping that moving into the 2024 season, we can comfortably slot Steele into Stroman's spot, and that one of Thompson, Killian, Wicks, Wesneski, etc., can be counted on as a Steele replacement. There is absolutely real savings opportunity here as our minor league pitching talent evolves.

If Contreras doesn't accept the QO, there is immediate savings at C this year. And if he does, I don't imagine the Cubs will be looking to earmark $20M for a starter there in 2024. Either this year or next, a good amount of this $ will fall to the bottom line.

And if one of the Davis, Canario, PCA, etc., group isn't ready to take over Happ's spot in 2024, that will be extremely disappointing.

In short, I disagree - I think there are meaningful savings opportunities with the money coming off next year.

I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a projection.  That team, just ball parking it would be right around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins.  It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big chunk.

Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?
« Last Edit: October 21, 2022, 02:00:50 pm by ticohans »

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #33 on: October 18, 2022, 03:59:02 pm »
What if they don't want us?  Great question.  Lester, of course, had a special relationship with Theo.  Others?  We overpay...Heyward, for example.  What do our coveted players see?  A team that came in second in most competitions, and who didn't try too hard to keep its super stars.  Or we trade them, Yu.  Our FA record is not impressive.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #34 on: October 18, 2022, 05:48:42 pm »
What if they don't want us?  Great question.  Lester, of course, had a special relationship with Theo.  Others?  We overpay...Heyward, for example.  What do our coveted players see?  A team that came in second in most competitions, and who didn't try too hard to keep its super stars.  Or we trade them, Yu.  Our FA record is not impressive.

I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him.  They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt.  Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with.  On Rodon, not so much.

The question is, do they want him?  Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #35 on: October 18, 2022, 06:42:17 pm »
Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels actually do trade Ohtani.  What, realistically, would you offer for him as a one-year rental?

My personal opinion would be, nothing.  I’d wait and hope he makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field and the revenue his presence generates for the club.  But if you were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?

davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #36 on: October 18, 2022, 06:44:10 pm »
I think the Cubs are going to go after one of the four shortstops, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps75%) of getting one of them.  I think they will also go after Senga or Rodon, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps 50%) chance of getting one of them.  If they do get both positions, I highly doubt that they will spend much money for a center fielder.  Perhaps Abreu, if they can get him for 10 - 12 million, but other than the usual middle of the pack relievers, that is going to be it for the winter as far as large investments are concerned.  At the trade deadline, when their needs are more firmly defined, they might try to plug another hole.

But under no circumstances do I expect to see them bring in so much talent this winter that they can enter the season as a top tier competitor for the World Series.

I hope they sign Contreras to a long term contract.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2022, 06:47:47 pm »
...Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and Senga. ...

Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024.  He may opt out, but I'd not assume so. 

If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.   

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #38 on: October 18, 2022, 06:57:27 pm »
I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him.  They’re known here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there doesn’t hurt.  Most importantly even if they have to “overpay” to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could live with.  On Rodon, not so much.

The question is, do they want him?  Who knows what their scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.

Agree.  Don't think there is any reason why the Cubs wouldn't have a fair chance to compete for Senga, *if* they want him.  But as you say, do they?  And *if* they both want him and pay what it take to get him, will that scouting be vindicated?  Who knows. 

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2022, 07:01:33 pm »
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024.  He may opt out, but I'd not assume so. 

If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.   

$21M is essentially the value of the qualifying offer. Barring massive injury, I think the Cubs would be glad to see Stroman renew for a single year at a QO price, and then be eligible for a QO the year after.

Getting multiple single-year contract options on a solid #3, athletic pitcher, who is only 31, is a great deal of value and flexibility for the team.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #40 on: October 18, 2022, 07:06:00 pm »
Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels actually do trade Ohtani.  What, realistically, would you offer for him as a one-year rental?

My personal opinion would be, nothing.  I’d wait and hope he makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field and the revenue his presence generates for the club.  But if you were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?

Ohtani strikes me as one of the few players who might sign an extension with a team that trades for him, assuming he has a good experience and believes in the organization's commitment to winning (no jokes, please).

An outfielder, a shortstop, a starting pitcher, and a reliever.

Davis/Alcantara/Canario/Caissie, Hernandez/Howard/Made, Brown/Kilian/Devers, Leeper/Leigh/Correa/Sanders

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #41 on: October 18, 2022, 07:09:26 pm »
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024.  He may opt out, but I'd not assume so. 

If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and productive 2023 season.   

I think Stroman will try to use the opt out to get an extra year tacked on (2025, his age 34 season).
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #42 on: October 18, 2022, 07:20:28 pm »

Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?

Super science. Honestly if you look at the ZIPS projections from last year the Dodgers and Braves were the only National League teams with more than 90 wins. The Cardinals had an 88 game projection and the Phillies had 83.  I think that team would fall somewhere in that range. That team could be above 90 wins, but it also could struggle.

I listened to the CHGO Cubs podcast with Brendan and Corey and they were talking about Jed on the Score. Jed talked about reducing variance in the outcomes games.  Basically you are talented teams that can blow out teams and reduce 1 run games. Trying to get to that team in one off-season is going to be near impossible so the error range is going to be large for the Cubs.

The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).

That is what the Cubs need to build, not a team with a bunch of solid players. You need some stars and then surround them with really good players.

When I look at the farm Alcantara and maybe PCA OR Davis if they hit their 1% projection could be the stars.  Without drafting near the top of the draft, the Cubs haven’t shown the ability to get a star later. That leaves IFA and even if the Cubs are signing Wander Franco that is 3 years away. It leaves free agency as the only viable option for getting a star.

Judge scares me so that really leaves Soto and Ohtani as a possible target. Having a clean finachial sheet is the only way that happens and allows you fill holes on the team that prospects don’t fill.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2022, 07:39:14 pm »

The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).


The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.

If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being enormously different.

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ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #44 on: October 18, 2022, 07:42:47 pm »
Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less than my proposed team budget :)