Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 20686 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #45 on: October 18, 2022, 08:51:40 pm »
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way? 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #46 on: October 18, 2022, 09:11:06 pm »
Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less than my proposed team budget :)

CBT tax base also includes player benefits and Cubs share of $50 M pre-arb bonus pool.

That totals about $18.

So, a $230 AAV payroll is $248 CBT payroll.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #47 on: October 18, 2022, 09:51:05 pm »
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way? 

If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.

Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships.  Look at the surviving teams.  Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.  Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.

davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #48 on: October 19, 2022, 08:59:55 am »
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.

Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships.  Look at the surviving teams.  Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.  Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.

How many stars are currently playing in baseball?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #49 on: October 19, 2022, 10:36:46 am »
The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.

If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being enormously different.



The Cubs made the NLCS the 3 years Bryant was above 7 WAR.  They haven't since he stopped.

Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way? 

Hoyer has talked about how they don't have a Bryant in the system and the current farm isn't what the farm was in 2014. 

If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they won’t have the budget.

Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win championships.  Look at the surviving teams.  Look at objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.  Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.

Agree with second part.  The first part is their are only really 2 stars that are possibly coming up that make sense.  Ohtani and Soto.  They could just not get them.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #50 on: October 19, 2022, 01:05:56 pm »
Further calculations reveal that the Cubs will be able to add just a shade over $100 million to the 2023 payroll (AAV basis) without hitting the luxury tax threshold.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #51 on: October 19, 2022, 05:10:50 pm »
When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux? 

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #52 on: October 19, 2022, 07:09:59 pm »
When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux? 

When you go $40 million over the threshold.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #53 on: October 19, 2022, 07:23:32 pm »
Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the threshold?


Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #55 on: October 19, 2022, 08:55:13 pm »
Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the threshold?

The penalty is not a “lost” draft pick.

Penalty is moving back 10 places in first round (unless pick is 1-6, in which case move back with 2nd pick)

In 2022 draft, Dodgers moved back to #40 from #30.

Looks like Mets, Dodgers, Yankees all moving back 10 spots in 2023 draft.

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #56 on: October 19, 2022, 09:26:23 pm »
So if I'm understanding, then stacking seasons above lux line has no impact on draft picks, only on financial tax levels.  Yes?
-Hoyer could go $39 over lux every remaining CBA season, and the only consequence would be financial, no draft factor?
-And the 10-back draft factor doesn't matter whether it's 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year over the lux line. 

I don't think Hoyer is going to go $40 over the lux line this winter, so non-factor. 

Under old CBA, it seemed like even Yankees tried to avoid the triple-lux, and would try to restart the lux count.  Are the penalties less now, and triple-luxing will be routine instead of exceptional?  I ask because if triple-lux is still a big deal, Hoyer may prioritize staying under the line this year to defer approach of triple-lux? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #57 on: October 19, 2022, 09:45:00 pm »
I do assume that long-term spending capacity has to factor in.  tico and deeg reason that we have resources to go huge.  But it would be nice for Hoyer to kind of guesstimate how high he'll be able to go in 24-25-26-27.  (Even if he's thinking $280 and we think he should be spending $380, or whatever...).

After 2015, Theo identified Heyward as a Superstar and used his resources to get him.  I assume Theo knew pretty reasonably what he'd have to work with in the ensuing years, and wasn't going to get budgeted to $250 and $280 and $310.  But he did it anyway, accepting that he'd be tied up financially.  Had he been right, history would look diffeerent.  But with Theo going all in on superstar-Heyward, and not-young Lackey and Zobrist, he ended up financially tied. 

A difference is that we don't already have guys stepping towards arbitration.  Once Bryant and the young guys hit arbitration, the inflation path was severe even without adding new talent.  Right now, it seems like other than Hoerner, there aren't any imminent arbitration-inflation guys?  Keegan and steele, soon enough I guess, IF they remain good.  But if cats like Mervis and Canario and PCA and Wicks do become part of the next good team, there remains a 3-year window before those kinds of guys even start the arb spiral. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #58 on: October 19, 2022, 10:39:59 pm »
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/19/now-a-report-out-of-japan-is-connecting-the-chicago-cubs-to-kodai-senga/
I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have Toy available for translation.  No draft-pick lost.  It just makes so much sense.  But as deeg noted, it all depends on how the Cubs scout him. 

I admit I'm something of a believer in guys with good stuff but with control and command.  I'm optimistic that Senga could be pretty solid? 
« Last Edit: October 19, 2022, 11:32:32 pm by craig »
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #59 on: October 19, 2022, 11:16:51 pm »
I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have Toy available for translation.  No draft-pick lost.  It just makes so much sense.  But as deeg noted, it all depends on how the Cubs scout him. 

I admit I'm something of a believer in

It just seems like a very Cub move.  It fits their recent history.

I don’t know what the Cubs scouting on Senga says, obviously.  Based strictly on my amateur’s eye, if the number is close to what’s being bandied about (5/$75) I’d be in favor.  I think there’s a better chance he overperforms that than the opposite, and even if he crashes out it’s not a franchise-crippling deal.