Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 55112 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #90 on: October 21, 2022, 10:25:53 pm »
On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.

If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...

I knew you’d come around.

Bellinger's slugging these last two years has been .389 and .302.

He’s broken or he wouldn’t be a non-tender candidate. It is a pure upside play that your hitting infrastructure can fix him.  He had a .203 ISO against righties and a wRC+ 92  so he could be a strong side platoon with good defense at worst.  Let Morel play in CF against lefties. If you fix Bellinger though that would be a great move.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #91 on: October 21, 2022, 10:27:13 pm »
If the numbers of 75 million are anywhere near accurate, that Senga should be the Cubs the Cubs #1 priority this off season.
Also, I doubt that the Cubs would have traded Scott Effross if they weren't pretty sure that he will be in their rotation next year.

The Cubs will need depth though. Who knows what Hendricks will be next year. The more candidates, the better.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #92 on: October 21, 2022, 11:15:28 pm »
On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.

If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...

I really want us to graduate beyond dumpster diving better organizations' trash.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #93 on: October 21, 2022, 11:19:56 pm »
On CF, didn't realize LAD may just non-tender Bellinger.

If that happens, given our holes at 1B and CF, he'd be right at the top of my list. At worst you get really good CF defense on a stopgap contract. And if he's able to stay healthy and revert even partially to prior form...

His CF defense is not that great.  Average or just above now, and certainly not trending upwards.  If you had confidence he'd hit average D in center is great, but Bellinger hasn't been good since 2019.  He's never been the same since he hurt his shoulder.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2022, 11:26:53 pm by Deeg »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #94 on: October 22, 2022, 12:30:27 am »
OOA is a pretty great stat for outfielders. It takes into account positioning, distance traveled, batted ball data.

Bellinger was 12th in CF OOA with 5. He has in the same group as Bader, Harris, Rodriguez and Nimmo.   Ortega was 40 and Morel was 43.

He improves the team and he has some upside, even if it is unlikely. If he wasn’t going to make $17 million in arbitration the Dodgers would probably want to keep him. Trent Grisham, if he gets DFA or is available in trade, would be another guy to go after.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #95 on: October 22, 2022, 01:01:46 am »
The Padres aren't gonna DFA Grisham.  They like him a lot even with his offensive deficiencies, and his glove actually is legit elite.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #96 on: October 22, 2022, 01:17:15 am »
I really want us to graduate beyond dumpster diving better organizations' trash.

Deeg, context.

I'm talking about Bellinger as a last piece while proposing the Cubs spend $90M to bag Correa, Senga, Abreu, etc.

A Bellinger acquisition would keep a little payroll cushion for the trade deadline while getting some upside - however unlikely - from the position.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2022, 01:32:30 am by ticohans »

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #97 on: October 22, 2022, 01:34:26 am »
Deeg, context.

I'm talking about Bellinger as a last piece while proposing the Cubs spend $90M to bag Correa, Senga, Abreu, etc. Fantastic way to keep a little payroll cushion going into the trade deadline while getting some upside, however unlikely, from the position.

I get context, Tico, but here's my context - do you trust the Cubs to view Bellinger that way?  It's like letting a 17 year-old take the car to a party after he swears he won't drink.  Sure, they have a license - but have they earned that trust?

My fear is the Cubs sign Abreu and trade (probably) for Bellinger and say "See?  These are big names!  We're a big club!" and call it a day.  Context.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #98 on: October 22, 2022, 01:38:00 am »
Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #99 on: October 22, 2022, 01:39:26 am »
Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.

No one here is the one actually making the decisions, either.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #100 on: October 22, 2022, 02:04:46 am »
Bellinger is not a trade candidate. Hard to believe that anybody is going to commit a $17 arb salary to him, other than perhaps the Dodgers if they decide to offer him a contract.

If Dodgers non-tender him, he’ll be a FA.

Bellinger is a way better defensive CFer than anybody Cubs played out there in 2022, other than perhaps Hermosillo. A definite defensive upgrade.

We know that shoulder surgery for pitchers often imperil their career. Ditto for Bellinger. Not sure that anybody has a more violent swing than Bellinger and his surgically repaired front shoulder doesn’t seem to be holding up to pitching velocity. We know what happens when a guy tries to work around velocity vulnerability——he just opens up more holes in his swing. It’s been a sad case for a guy who seemed maybe headed to HOF at one time.

Not really keen on giving Nimmo a long multi-year contract and doubt Cubs will pursue him aggressively. So, could see taking a short deal on Bellinger at right price. Why not.

Who knows, maybe Bellinger just needs two years post-surgery for some kind of semi-recovery. Seems a longshot but who knows.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2022, 02:06:48 am by Reb »

Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #101 on: October 22, 2022, 02:20:01 am »
My sense about the Cubs roster discussion here for 2023 is that more folks coming around to the notion that Cubs could actually be serious 2023 contenders to win something if front office does what is being suggested.

That seems like a change from the constant doom-and-gloom talk earlier and the what’s-the-point of trying to improve next season and maybe actually better if Cubs stink again for long-term rationales.

Maybe it was seeing 87 and 89 win teams on the verge of going to the World Series. Maybe it was the Cubs better 2nd half W/L record. Maybe it’s the natural Hope Springs Eternal off-season dreams. Maybe it’s Deeg’s Manic side temporarily besting his Depressive side (for the moment).

Whatever it may be, glad to see talking about winning now.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #102 on: October 22, 2022, 08:01:32 am »
Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.

Pretty sure no one in the Cubs is either. 

davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #103 on: October 22, 2022, 01:08:22 pm »
Then direct your complaint to ownership, cause no one here is thinking that way.

Nor is there any indication that ownership is thinking that way.  Other than Deeg's long standing and obvious bias.

davep

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #104 on: October 22, 2022, 01:11:28 pm »
Several people are in favor of signing Bellinger at the right price.  But I have not seen any suggestions on what the "right price" should be?  What is the highest the Cubs should offer, if he is non-tendered?