Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 20686 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2022, 07:20:28 pm »

Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?

Super science. Honestly if you look at the ZIPS projections from last year the Dodgers and Braves were the only National League teams with more than 90 wins. The Cardinals had an 88 game projection and the Phillies had 83.  I think that team would fall somewhere in that range. That team could be above 90 wins, but it also could struggle.

I listened to the CHGO Cubs podcast with Brendan and Corey and they were talking about Jed on the Score. Jed talked about reducing variance in the outcomes games.  Basically you are talented teams that can blow out teams and reduce 1 run games. Trying to get to that team in one off-season is going to be near impossible so the error range is going to be large for the Cubs.

The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4, Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3 (in 26 IP).

That is what the Cubs need to build, not a team with a bunch of solid players. You need some stars and then surround them with really good players.

When I look at the farm Alcantara and maybe PCA OR Davis if they hit their 1% projection could be the stars.  Without drafting near the top of the draft, the Cubs haven’t shown the ability to get a star later. That leaves IFA and even if the Cubs are signing Wander Franco that is 3 years away. It leaves free agency as the only viable option for getting a star.

Judge scares me so that really leaves Soto and Ohtani as a possible target. Having a clean finachial sheet is the only way that happens and allows you fill holes on the team that prospects don’t fill.