Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 54928 times)

Reb

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Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #390 on: November 23, 2022, 02:18:01 pm »

…..He would have been the 4th or 5th best hitter on the 2022 Cubs.  A Cubs team that loses Willson and makes Swanson the big add is going to be worse on offense in 2023.  The Cubs even if the spend like they should are only going to have room for so many $20+ million contracts, giving one to Swanson is a bad idea.

The way to make up for loss of Contreras offense is mostly 1B/DH.  There is no scenario in which a new catcher is anything other than a big downgrade offensively.  That's practically a given.

Big question for me is:  if Cubs lose out on Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or decide they don't want give out the long-term deals those guys might get, do you just pass on Swanson?  Just live with not getting one of the Big 4?

My answer to that question is that would be a big disappointment coming away empty-handed, so inclined to sign Swanson if comes to that.  He's not going to get Correa/Turner money.  He's the #4 guy of this group, clearly.

Agnostic about Swanson because not confident abut which Swanson shows up in 2023 and beyond.  Last two seasons, plus partial 2020 season, Swanson had 12.1 fWAR.  That's about a 5 WAR a year player.  That guy I like.  But, realistically, hard to see a bunch of 5 WAR seasons going forward.  Maybe more of a 3 WAR guy?  Who knows.

A bunch of that recent WAR is Swanson defense.  But, not a bad thing for the SS position. And, with Hoerner moving to 2B, that's perhaps elite up-the-middle team defense, especially with a big defensive upgrade in CF (and catcher), perhaps too?  Well, great up-the-middle team defense has been a winning formula for over a century.  So, that is not a bad strategy if comes to that.

Have to weigh a Swanson signing with the long-term payroll impact, without the big offensive impact.  A good hitter, but not an impact offensive guy. A valid point. But, at SS, think you have to look at the whole package. 

Best way to address this is to sign one of the other SSs.  But, if it's Swanson or bust, I'm okay with Swanson.

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