Author Topic: Cubs in ‘23  (Read 5848 times)

Ron

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8055
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #390 on: November 23, 2022, 09:10:31 am »
Jon Morosi is very big on Correa to the Cubs. He argues that the Cubs & Wrigley Field have a special appeal to Correa and that the Cubs would be a perfect platform for Correa to pursue his goals. He also believes that Correa is the perfect match for the Cubs in their next stage.  He's also big on Senga and Senga to the Cubs.

We'll see.  The video with Morosi is at the bottom of the Marquee article.

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/swiss-army-knife-cubs-hitting-department-planning-on-to-take-holistic-approach-to-offense/

Playtwo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8262
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #391 on: November 23, 2022, 09:11:43 am »
I might be wrong about this but in recent years it seems that the offensive expectations at 2B haven't been much higher than those at SS.  In fact, there seem to be more strong offensive players at SS.

The value of paying more and signing Correa vs Swanson is that it contributes more to getting our offense into an acceptable range.  Impactful offensive players are not going to be easy to acquire.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15925
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #392 on: November 23, 2022, 12:44:35 pm »
Since 2020, of the big 4 SS on the market, Dansby Swanson has the most HRs, the highest Hard Hit%, the highest Barrel%, the second highest ISO, the second highest baserunning value, the second lowest BABIP, and by far the most defensive value.

Let's look at some other cherry picked stats.
Swanson has
Lowest BB%,
Highest K%
Lowest BA
Lowest OBP
Lowest SLG
Lowest wOBA
Lowest wRC+
Lowest max Exit Velocity

His slash line from 20-22 is
.265/.324/.451 wRC+ 109, 7.6% BB%, 26% K%

He would have been the 4th or 5th best hitter on the 2022 Cubs.  A Cubs team that loses Willson and makes Swanson the big add is going to be worse on offense in 2023.  The Cubs even if the spend like they should are only going to have room for so many $20+ million contracts, giving one to Swanson is a bad idea.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 12:46:08 pm by CUBluejays »

Reb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3670
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #393 on: November 23, 2022, 02:18:01 pm »

…..He would have been the 4th or 5th best hitter on the 2022 Cubs.  A Cubs team that loses Willson and makes Swanson the big add is going to be worse on offense in 2023.  The Cubs even if the spend like they should are only going to have room for so many $20+ million contracts, giving one to Swanson is a bad idea.

The way to make up for loss of Contreras offense is mostly 1B/DH.  There is no scenario in which a new catcher is anything other than a big downgrade offensively.  That's practically a given.

Big question for me is:  if Cubs lose out on Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or decide they don't want give out the long-term deals those guys might get, do you just pass on Swanson?  Just live with not getting one of the Big 4?

My answer to that question is that would be a big disappointment coming away empty-handed, so inclined to sign Swanson if comes to that.  He's not going to get Correa/Turner money.  He's the #4 guy of this group, clearly.

Agnostic about Swanson because not confident abut which Swanson shows up in 2023 and beyond.  Last two seasons, plus partial 2020 season, Swanson had 12.1 fWAR.  That's about a 5 WAR a year player.  That guy I like.  But, realistically, hard to see a bunch of 5 WAR seasons going forward.  Maybe more of a 3 WAR guy?  Who knows.

A bunch of that recent WAR is Swanson defense.  But, not a bad thing for the SS position. And, with Hoerner moving to 2B, that's perhaps elite up-the-middle team defense, especially with a big defensive upgrade in CF (and catcher), perhaps too?  Well, great up-the-middle team defense has been a winning formula for over a century.  So, that is not a bad strategy if comes to that.

Have to weigh a Swanson signing with the long-term payroll impact, without the big offensive impact.  A good hitter, but not an impact offensive guy. A valid point. But, at SS, think you have to look at the whole package. 

Best way to address this is to sign one of the other SSs.  But, if it's Swanson or bust, I'm okay with Swanson.

Agree Agree x 1 View List

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15372
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #394 on: November 23, 2022, 03:43:49 pm »
One can only hold out hope that Hoyer has more sense than self-appointed experts on fan boards.  And that he has enough budget for it to matter.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25200
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #395 on: November 23, 2022, 03:47:32 pm »
Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/

To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15372
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #396 on: November 23, 2022, 04:03:47 pm »
Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/

To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.

I think the Cubs are very serious about having been seen as finalists for all these guys.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11601
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #397 on: November 23, 2022, 04:26:31 pm »
Hoerner was .737 OPS.  Among SS, that was 9th.  That would have been 5th among 2B.  Other than Altuve, there aren't a ton of great-hitting 2B's.  This isn't like the 90's when there were hitters like jeff Kent, Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg, Carlos Baerga, Robeto Alomar, Lou Whitaker, and others. 

Hoerner's offense will compare favorably to most 2B's these days. 

https://www.mlb.com/stats/regular-season?position=2B
Agree Agree x 2 View List

Dave23

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11653
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #398 on: November 23, 2022, 04:40:52 pm »
Agree with Craig…Hoerner’s bat plays just fine at 2B, and his glove will be crucial there with the new shift rules.

For all the uncertainty with his bat, a Swanson-Hoerner combo up the middle is a strength.
Agree Agree x 5 View List

davep

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15171
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #399 on: November 23, 2022, 07:26:32 pm »
Here is the first sign of Cubs walking back expectations at shortstop through their friends in the media. On reports that Correa will sign for around $250 million, Jesse Rogers says "… he’s getting $250M.’ And the Cubs aren’t spending $250M.”

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/23/if-this-is-really-all-it-takes-to-sign-carlos-correa-the-cubs-must-get-it-done/

To BN's credit, they didn't carry water here. They're actually critical of the idea that the Cubs wouldn't sign Correa on such a reasonable contract.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that the Cubs are "walking back expectations".  The Cubs are not mentioned as a source at any point, and he merely says that some people in baseball do not think that they will go for a contract that large.  I have never heard Hoyer or any other Cubs source give any indicatio of how much or how little they are willing to spend.  They Have indicated that they don't want a contract over 6 years or so, and seem to have stuck to that.

BN is hardly made up of reporters.  They seem to use reporters as their source, rather than develop their own, at least when it comes to the major league team.

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15372
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #400 on: November 23, 2022, 07:39:51 pm »
I do think he’s probably right about the Cubs not going the distance with Correa, but Rogers’ credibility is somewhat undercut by his assertion that either 7 years or 230 million is realistic for Correa.  Not a chance in hell of either.

davep

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15171
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #401 on: November 23, 2022, 09:00:13 pm »
I think it is rather rare that a top free agent gets as much money or as many years as most pundits claim they will.  My guess is that Correa will get about 6 year, 192 million or 7 year, 222 million.

Let's open a thread with predictions, and see how far off CurtOne will be?
Disagree Disagree x 1 Funny Funny x 1 View List

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25352
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #402 on: November 23, 2022, 10:21:48 pm »
I think it is rather rare that a top free agent gets as much money or as many years as most pundits claim they will.  My guess is that Correa will get about 6 year, 192 million or 7 year, 222 million.

Let's open a thread with predictions, and see how far off CurtOne will be?
This from Davep, a guy who thinks Ancestry.com is a dating site.
Like Like x 1 Funny Funny x 1 View List

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15925
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #403 on: November 24, 2022, 12:35:18 am »
The way to make up for loss of Contreras offense is mostly 1B/DH.  There is no scenario in which a new catcher is anything other than a big downgrade offensively.  That's practically a given.

Big question for me is:  if Cubs lose out on Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, or decide they don't want give out the long-term deals those guys might get, do you just pass on Swanson?  Just live with not getting one of the Big 4?

My answer to that question is that would be a big disappointment coming away empty-handed, so inclined to sign Swanson if comes to that.  He's not going to get Correa/Turner money.  He's the #4 guy of this group, clearly.

Agnostic about Swanson because not confident abut which Swanson shows up in 2023 and beyond.  Last two seasons, plus partial 2020 season, Swanson had 12.1 fWAR.  That's about a 5 WAR a year player.  That guy I like.  But, realistically, hard to see a bunch of 5 WAR seasons going forward.  Maybe more of a 3 WAR guy?  Who knows.

A bunch of that recent WAR is Swanson defense.  But, not a bad thing for the SS position. And, with Hoerner moving to 2B, that's perhaps elite up-the-middle team defense, especially with a big defensive upgrade in CF (and catcher), perhaps too?  Well, great up-the-middle team defense has been a winning formula for over a century.  So, that is not a bad strategy if comes to that.

Have to weigh a Swanson signing with the long-term payroll impact, without the big offensive impact.  A good hitter, but not an impact offensive guy. A valid point. But, at SS, think you have to look at the whole package. 

Best way to address this is to sign one of the other SSs.  But, if it's Swanson or bust, I'm okay with Swanson.



I disagree that 1B/DH is where Contreras offense gets replaced.  You sign Corerra and that replaces Willson.  Then 1B/DH becomes an upgrade.

MLB Traderumors has Swanson at 7/$154 ($22 AAV), Fangraphs has him for 6/$144 or crowd sourcing 6/$139-141 ($23-24 AAV).  That is paying a defensive first SS until he is 35-36.

Just to bring up JR's favorite SS, Simmons had his best offensive years at 27/28.  He was worth 4.9/4.5 fWAR.  He's been worth 2.9 fWAR in the 4 seasons since then.  Now do I think Swanson is going to fall off the face of the Earth like Simmons, not really.  I didn't think Heyward would either.  If you are going to be paying $20+ million for a player on a long term contact I don't want it to be to a defensive first player ever again. 

Reb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3670
Re: Cubs in ‘23
« Reply #404 on: November 24, 2022, 12:55:25 am »
I disagree that 1B/DH is where Contreras offense gets replaced.  You sign Corerra and that replaces Willson.  Then 1B/DH becomes an upgrade……

Sure, Correa would be the goal. But, do you pass on Swanson if can’t/don’t get Correa (or Turner/Boegarts)? Tons of competition for the SSs at a HUGE price. What’s the fallback position? Nobody?

1B much easier to get a Contreras bat replacement. Abreu had a better wRC+ than Contreras and more fWAR in 2022 and throughout his career. Don’t have to pay $200/$250 to get a 1B who can hit.

If can get Abreu and Swanson, that’s a major upgrade, along with the candidates we’re speculating about at other positions.