Author Topic: Cubs in ‘24 (Read 86603 times)

ben · « **Reply #30 on:** October 05, 2023, 08:49:32 am »

And, yes, I know Alonso will be a free agent after '24, but Stearns/Mets will have ALL the MONEY they need (from Steve Cohen) to pay any great player in '25 and beyond.

davep · « **Reply #31 on:** October 05, 2023, 08:52:38 am »

I like Happ. He is a very good player. But as a left fielder only, he is quite easily replaced. And the strength of the farm system then and now, is in outfielders. It is a shame that Hoyer gave in to the pressure from media and fans, and extended his contract, rather than trade him at peak value to the team. And giving him a no-trade contract was horrible.

In my opinion, the third base position HAS to be given to Morel. The Cubs have been so in love with the concept of making him a Zobrist supersub that they have never given him a chance to learn one position well. They forget that Zobrist supersubs are so valuable because they are so rare. Most players are unable to constantly change positions day to day and still maintain consistant offensive production, let alone play each position at a high skill level, and it seems like Morel falls into that category.

Morel showed substantial improvement in power in 2022, and had a breakout year in that category in 2023, showing that it probably wasn't a "career year" kind of thing. He now has the power profile that you want (and we currently need) at third base, and has the athletic ability to do well at third base, given time and experience. I remember the weeping, moaning and gnashing of teeth when we got Aramis Ramirez from the Pirates. How could we ever play that "butcher" at third base? Ramirez was never a particularly good defensive third baseman, but his combination of offense and defense made his acquisition a great one for the Cubs. I think moving Morel to third would result in similar value to the Cubs.

Deeg · « **Reply #32 on:** October 05, 2023, 09:01:28 am »

I think the Cubs are hoping Shaw is the everyday third baseman by the end of 2024.

ben · « **Reply #33 on:** October 05, 2023, 01:09:28 pm »

IF Shaw is the guy Cubs want to be at 3b long term (and he appears to have terrific offensive upside), what about Cubs working with Morel at 1B?

He certainly has the glove to play 1B and, though it would largely waste his arm, his athleticism would help him some there, too.

He'd likely develop into being better at 1B than Alonso and, before too long, he's likely to become as good or better at the plate.

Save the Alonso FA money for pitching...we certainly need more quality pitching big time!

ben · « **Reply #34 on:** October 05, 2023, 01:17:09 pm »

And DaveP, I agree with your comparison of Morel potential to Aramis Ramirez. No Brooks Robinson, but became solid there and was a plus hitter!

As Ramirez matured, he worked harder and got even better results into his late 20s, which I think there's a very good chance Morel will do, too.

For what it may be worth: Morel's 21-y.o. younger brother, Rafael (solid in low A this season), may develop into a MLB prospect/player, also. Power, speed and may have some positional versatility (as Christopher).

Deeg · « **Reply #35 on:** October 05, 2023, 04:29:30 pm »

I'd be fine trying Morel at 1B. Baez actually played there a bit when the Cubs were giving him the Morel treatment and he was really spectacular (but his natural defensive gifts are off the charts).

I'm not sold on Morel as a hitter TBH. If somebody was willing to overpay for him I'd consider it.

Reb · « **Reply #36 on:** October 05, 2023, 05:42:31 pm »

Quote from: davep on October 05, 2023, 08:52:38 am

…In my opinion, the third base position HAS to be given to Morel. The Cubs have been so in love with the concept of making him a Zobrist supersub that they have never given him a chance to learn one position well. They forget that Zobrist supersubs are so valuable because they are so rare. Most players are unable to constantly change positions day to day and still maintain consistant offensive production, let alone play each position at a high skill level, and it seems like Morel falls into that category…….

Cubs pretty much abandoned the notion of Morel as a “supersub” in 2023. Think that’s an old story. When Hoerner was on IL, Morel played some 2B as a fill-in. Never really in any OF rotation. Overwhelmingly a DH. That’s what he was in 2023.

Best way to get a fix on what Cubs think about Morel defensively is to look at what Cubs ACTUALLY are doing with Morel lately.

He was the Iowa 3B to open the season and then Cubs moved him off of 3B. He then played OF at Iowa. That happened when Cubs needed help at 3B. If Cubs thought he had a chance at 3B, then why move him off 3B?

Cubs didn’t really need help in OF but that’s where he was moved to at Iowa. Really can’t ignore that Cubs moved Morel off 3B.

Since the call-up, he’s been mostly a DH of course. Morel had 4 token starts at 3B since the call-up. Three of those four 3B starts were in early July when Wisdom was on IL and Mastrobuoni was in minors.

So, I pose this question: If 3B “has to be given to Morel” then why did Cubs pull him off 3B at Iowa this season and then not play him at 3B in majors thereafter hardly at all??

Doesn’t that tell us something important?

Cubs have tried to develop Morel at 3B in minors. 153 game starts at 3B. That’s way more games at the 3B position in minors than any other position he played there. Evidence is overwhelming that Cubs don’t like him at 3B.

ben · « **Reply #37 on:** October 06, 2023, 06:56:19 am »

Those are good points, Reb, and I'll agree it's quite possible Morel will never be able to play MLB 3b (Cubs say he didn't master the 3b arm stroke).

However, what's also true is that he played the vast, vast majority of his MiLB 3b innings as a pre-pandemic teen (909 of his 1032 3b innings) before 2020 (in which he didn't play).

He was rushed to the majors and played most of his MiLB innings at 5 other positions (1032 mostly pre-pandemic innings at 3b, 1145 other positions, including 227 at SS).

My theory is that, most guys who can play decent SS and have a strong arm, can - with good development - get the 3b arm stroke down.

Maybe Morel will be an outlier and just can't do it, but my best guess is Cubs will work him there unless they feel they must put Shaw there...if so, work Morel at 1b...where he likely could become pretty solid. (with his infield background)

Development is hard to guess - some can adjust, some can't. But, unlike Deeg and others, I think Morel's bat has significant upside and he can do other things.

I'd say we'd be potentially making a huge mistake to include him in a package with uber-sharp Stearns for '25 free agent Alonso, who hits prodigious HRs (but so does/will Morel most likely).

Reb · « **Reply #38 on:** October 07, 2023, 01:19:07 am »

Quote from: ben on October 06, 2023, 06:56:19 am

……Development is hard to guess - some can adjust, some can't. But, unlike Deeg and others, I think Morel's bat has significant upside and he can do other things. I'd say we'd be potentially making a huge mistake to include him in a package with uber-sharp Stearns for '25 free agent Alonso, who hits prodigious HRs (but so does/will Morel most likely).

Ben- Putting aside the issue of Morel’s defensive position, I get the enthusiasm for Morel’s offense. After all, he slugged .500 or so for the season (albeit boosted by his fantastic first 50 PAs) and had a nice final month (.886 OPS). His wRC+ (119) was identical to Kyle Schwarber.

His lack of defensive value in 2023, however, resulted in a bWAR of only 1.2 and 1.4 fWAR. That’s in only 429 PAs, so we could prorate for a full season to 2 WAR——an average regular (Schwarber was 1.4 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR in 720 PAs).

As Schwarber’s WAR numbers show, bad defense or little or no defensive value really limits that player’s measurement of value. But, Morel can run a bit, can throw from the OF, and will still be 24 for almost 1/2 of next season. If I was a club that had a spot in RF for him, I’d be very interested in him as a regular.

As a player with multiple years of control, I can appreciate the argument that Morel should not be traded for a rental. Perhaps Cubs would be doing Morel a favor trading him somewhere to play RF but if he slugs .500/119 wRC+ again, he’s a legit DH bat too.

Deeg · « **Reply #39 on:** October 07, 2023, 03:00:39 am »

I think Morel’s greatest value is to a team that will play him regularly at 2B. That’s not us. So if that team is out there and making an offer, I’d certainly pick up the phone.

ben · « **Reply #40 on:** October 07, 2023, 02:22:51 pm »

I won't beat this rather dead horse any more, but I just found this quote from Hoyer concerning Morel back in June:

"“He’s done a nice job sort of bouncing around, but I do think that for some guys, it’s important to find a position and settle in,” Hoyer said.

“We’d love to be able to find that spot. I think third makes some sense. His hands work really well. He probably needs to spend a lot of time working through some footwork things. He’s got such a strong arm, he should be able to do it."\

That was roughly four months ago, so maybe Hoyer's thoughts have changed. After seeing Shaw's bat, maybe they view him as the long-term answer at 3rd. Maybe Hoyer wants to sign Candelario (assuming Belli doesn't return) for his versatility. Maybe he'll soon be shopping Morel.

The issue will likely play out in '24. It is nice to have some young guys to talk about who've stepped up and can clearly play MLB.

davep · « **Reply #41 on:** October 07, 2023, 05:03:19 pm »

Quote from: Reb on October 07, 2023, 01:19:07 am

His lack of defensive value in 2023, however, resulted in a bWAR of only 1.2 and 1.4 fWAR. That’s in only 429 PAs, so we could prorate for a full season to 2 WAR——an average regular (Schwarber was 1.4 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR in 720 PAs).

How is the defensive value calculated? In other words, does the time spent as a DH (not in the field) affect his WAR?

Ron · « **Reply #42 on:** October 07, 2023, 05:16:15 pm »

Quote from: ben on October 07, 2023, 02:22:51 pm

I won't beat this rather dead horse any more, but I just found this quote from Hoyer concerning Morel back in June:

"“He’s done a nice job sort of bouncing around, but I do think that for some guys, it’s important to find a position and settle in,” Hoyer said.

“We’d love to be able to find that spot. I think third makes some sense. His hands work really well. He probably needs to spend a lot of time working through some footwork things. He’s got such a strong arm, he should be able to do it."\

That was roughly four months ago, so maybe Hoyer's thoughts have changed. After seeing Shaw's bat, maybe they view him as the long-term answer at 3rd. Maybe Hoyer wants to sign Candelario (assuming Belli doesn't return) for his versatility. Maybe he'll soon be shopping Morel.

The issue will likely play out in '24. It is nice to have some young guys to talk about who've stepped up and can clearly play MLB.

It will be interesting to see if the Cubs have Morel working on mastering 3B over the winter.

Ron · « **Reply #43 on:** October 07, 2023, 05:22:59 pm »

Given that the Cubs' top position prospects, not counting Shaw anyway, (PCA, Caissie and Alcantara) along with Canario, are all OF, I am curious whether any thought has been given to trying someone at 3B (or even 1B). Perhaps a question reflecting my ignorance?

JeffH · « **Reply #44 on:** October 07, 2023, 06:05:34 pm »

Deeg, would you give Bellinger $200/8? Would you go higher? If no to both, what would be your limit?

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