Bleacher Bums Forum

Megan Montemurro
Fried has qualifying offer attached to him & Cubs must weigh that in addition to $$$ cost to sign him. Because Cubs exceeded CBT threshold they'd lose 2nd & 5th-highest picks in '25 draft plus $1M from international bonus pool.

So wouldn't be surprised if they more seriously explore other options.

With Bellinger opting in I don't believe it's a foregone conclusion that the Cubs exceeded the CBT. If they did it amounts to abject malpractice.

With Bellinger opting in I don't believe it's a foregone conclusion that the Cubs exceeded the CBT. If they did it amounts to abject malpractice.

I agree, deeg.  Montemurro said it, but I'm not sure she's right.   If they're over, it's by a very modest amount.  I think there's a pretty realistic chance that they're under.  Seems pointless to be overly obsessed with lux line for their budget.  But if so, it seems weird to spend just barely over. 

Interestingly, different public sites have different numbers.  Spotrac thinks they are under. 
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

Cots seems to think over, but I'm not sure they are processing Neris correctly, for example.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JDKxXR8y0NfQbQZRL9CAQv6ZSsnEC71nbdTg826sOVQ/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

My guess is that they structured it so that they are under.  But, I'm just speculating. 

Why do the Cubs seem to win less games when they have $115 more budget than Brewers, etc?  And only a few more wins than the Reds or Cardinals, when our budget is way higher? 

I don't think I'm tracking your argument fully.  Tell me if I'm way off. 

But I think I'm (mis)understanding one of your arguments to suggest that replacing Hoyer is unlikely to make any difference.  Ricketts sets the budget, the computer spits out the values, so it hardly matters who's the boss.  They are just using the computer values that are boundaried by Ricketts' budget.  Replacing Hoyer won't change any of that. 

If that's remotely close to your argument, how does that explain the Cubs divisional situation?  We've got much huger budget, so why doesn't our computer blow the cheaper divisional teams away?  Just bad luck? 

What explains it is that despite setting distressingly modest goals, Hoyer still can't achieve them. An organization can be both unambitious and poorly run within that context - they're not mutually exclusive.

As for the CBT I think it was reported the Cubs were just barely over regardless of what Bellinger did.  Just barely going over is a really bad planning on Jed’s part. 

The public sources struggle with the non-baseball charges.  So if you are just over there is going to be disagreement.  I would go with Tom said until MLB announces it, which should be fairly soon.

Thanks for thoughts on lux line, everybody.  Agree with deeg, it seems poor (mis)management to go just barely over.  But point well taken, reb, that if nibbling at the threshold, elect to add a Paredes, and have injuries, that can slip you over.  I hadn't heard Ricketts interview saying we were over, without qualifications.  So it is, I guess. 

I am a hypocrite to fault Hoyer for just going over, I confess.  In past, I've disliked the concept of staying $5-10 under to give space for mid-season acquisitions.  I've thought better off to spend near the line at the start.  Maybe you won't need to be trading for guys at deadline if you spent effectively at the start.  And if you spend smart at start, maybe by deadline the team is good and winning is focus, such that nobody cares about lux line.  So, maybe this season is a lesson why Hoyer/Theo have been justified in trying to keep some cushion.  Hoyer did what I've recommended; I'm a hypocrite to fault him for it now! 

Part of my logic in spending near the line, is that *IF* you aren't a good team, you can offload some salary at the deadline.  I'd thought if things went "sell", that Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Neris, Taillon, Wisdom might all be contracts you could sell at the deadline.  But Hoyer elected to keep Taillon; Neris was apparently the only salary he was able to offload. Hendricks, Wisdom, Smyly, Gomes, Bote, none of these vet salaries were guys anybody else would take. 

In retrospect, I was surprised last winter that they brought Wisdom back.  I wonder if without him we'd have been under?  That proved a mistake, I think. 

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@JonHeyman
 on Cubs' offseason: "I can see Max Fried as a guy that would really help them a lot. That would be a big one, if they could get him. That may be worth 5 games. You can do it through the pitching. Their positional players look solid."

I'd be more apt to believe Curtone than Montemurro.

  You mean you didn't before?  I'm hurt.

For Hoyer to deserve to be retained, the Cubs need to have the best roster in the NL Central going into the season and to win the division.