Author Topic: Cubs in ‘24  (Read 85979 times)

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2805 on: November 29, 2024, 12:55:06 pm »
He's only been a dork for a week?  Fooled me.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2806 on: November 29, 2024, 01:09:08 pm »
Apparently it almost always goes to John Fisher of the A’s.  Tom tried really hard to end another streak.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2807 on: November 29, 2024, 01:29:53 pm »
I would like to suggest a new thread titled something like "FIRE RICKETTS AND/OR HOYER." There are certainly enough posts to warrant a separate thread. A byproduct would be anyone who is interested in anything else related to the Cubs would be able to more easily find items not related to getting rid of Ricketts and/or Hoyer.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2808 on: November 29, 2024, 02:36:22 pm »
The rebuild began with Darvish, then Baez/Bryant/Rizzo trades.  PCA is the first return to touch the majors.  *If* Hoyer's rebuild succeeds, some of those guys might be part of it.  If you fire him next winter, you may be firing him just as the plan is set to click.  A farm-based rebuild takes some time. 

I'm the optimist outlier, but could it be that the rebuild *is* going to click?  That a bunch of the guys from the PCA-Caissie-Shaw-Triantos-Ballesteros-Alcantara-Cam-Horton-Brown-Hodge-Little-Birdsell crowd are going to end up being winning players?  PCA and Hodge are just the first fruits of the harvest, but more is coming. 

It's not just Koolaid to expect so.  I think it's objectively realistic to figure that we've got some good players coming soon.  Obviously it's Koolaid to think they'll *all* work out, or that even one will become a *star*.  (As Blue has often noted, what we've got are good prospects, but it's not clear that any are *star* prospects.) 

But harvest time is impending, and it could be a pretty rich crop.  Don't give up just before it's about to blossom and pay off?  And don't sell the farm just before harvest time? 
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craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2809 on: November 29, 2024, 02:39:28 pm »
Hoyer's farm-based rebuild may be variably vindicated over the upcoming years.  But there are lots of other smart (and smarter) farmers, so approaching harvest time does not necessitate sticking with Hoyer as the man in charge.  Renteria got replaced when they were just about ready.  For the Bulls, Doug Collins got replaced when they were just about ready. 


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2810 on: November 29, 2024, 05:52:45 pm »
I would like to suggest a new thread titled something like "FIRE RICKETTS AND/OR HOYER." There are certainly enough posts to warrant a separate thread. A byproduct would be anyone who is interested in anything else related to the Cubs would be able to more easily find items not related to getting rid of Ricketts and/or Hoyer.

I’m sorry.  I guess I though a national reporter calling out the Ricketts family nor spending money was actually kinda related to what to expect for the Cubs. 


Ron

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2811 on: November 29, 2024, 07:27:17 pm »
I’m sorry.  I guess I though a national reporter calling out the Ricketts family nor spending money was actually kinda related to what to expect for the Cubs. 

FYI, my suggestion was not a response to your post, or any other single post.

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2812 on: December 02, 2024, 08:12:13 am »
https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/cubs-sign-starting-pitcher-matthew-boyd-to-two-year-deal-r1273/?

Cubs sign left starter Matthew Boyd for $29/2.   
-Boyd will be 34 this season. 
-Had TJ surgery June 28, 2023. 

Some scouting observations about him from Cleveland source, prior to his getting called up last year. 

https://www.coveringthecorner.com/2024/7/3/24191710/what-do-the-guardians-see-in-matthew-boyd

brjones

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2813 on: December 02, 2024, 08:30:46 am »
So Hoyer isn't even going to talk to Juan Soto, but he'll flush $30 million down the toilet on a guy whose biggest workload in the last five years was 78 1/3 IP in 2021.

Maybe it'll work out better than other recent two year deals like those Hoyer gave to Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart, and Drew Smyly.
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2814 on: December 02, 2024, 08:38:11 am »
I get the possible upside in Boyd.  But if his cost is used as a reason they can't go after more certain difference makers, I've had it with Hoyer.

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2815 on: December 02, 2024, 09:09:59 am »
Over his 908-inning big-league career, 168 starts, only 14 relief appearances.  10 relief appearances with Seattle in 2022, a several at start of career, but other than Seattle he's been a starter.  However, hasn't had a lots-of-starts-lots-of-innings season since 2019.  (185 innings, 32 starts). 

Will be interesting to see what Hawkins, Hoyer, Counsell say about projected opportunity.  Planned into rotation?  Or maybe a bit Smyly-like?  Might start, might relieve, we'll see how the competition shakes out and let performance guide the usage?  Has pretty good splits versus lefties, career-wise, so might perhaps end up being a useful bullpen guy?  $14.5/year suggests more than bullpen plan, though. 

Career-wise, 4.85 ERA, not impressive.  Primary vulnerability has been the HR-ball, so seems kinda like the profile that Hoyer gravitates towards, other than Stroman he's usually trended towards strike-throwing gopher guys.  1.6HR/9 over career.  That's with lots of his career innings pitched for Detroit, which is not HR-inflation stadium.  Perhaps a hope is that with Wrigley as a power-suppression park, that HR's won't kill? 

Looking at career profiles, of course, is of mixed value.  With all of the modern pitch optimization, I have no idea what his pitch-mix profile looks like today versus in earlier years. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2816 on: December 02, 2024, 09:12:13 am »
I like the Boyd signing.  He at least can strike guys out.  He certainly has a pretty big risk profile.  I think I'd prefer Boyd to somebody like Eovoldi if we are playing in the shallower end of the free agent pool.

The Cubs playing in the shallow end is certainly more of a problem. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2817 on: December 02, 2024, 09:15:51 am »
Speaks to the pitching market that a 34-year-old pitcher like Boyd with 4.85 career ERA, 1.6HR/9, and no >15 game season in the last 5 years, that he's still getting $29/2. 

Lots of competition for FA pitchers, that's for sure. 

craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2818 on: December 02, 2024, 09:45:06 am »
Hopefully Boyd will pitch well for us, and will look like a good-value clever signing.  Often works that way for teams that have success?  For Cubs, they don't tend to overflow with either smarts, success, or luck, not so much.  But if the Cubs win the division this season, it's easy to imagine Boyd being a solid pitcher who contributes to the division chase. 

Assuming lux-line is the budget, guessing there will be a second rotation pitcher before it's done.  I've kinda thought this from early on, *IF* they use lux-line budget and *IF* they don't chase a big-ticket, two starters would use the money.  (I know tico and deeg have said they expect budget cut-back, and deeg suggested Occam's Razor as the reasoning.  But I haven't really read anything to suggest they plan to drop significantly sub-lux.).


craig

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Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Reply #2819 on: December 02, 2024, 09:57:03 am »
You guys will hate this, but I actually have interest in Jack Flaherty.  And kinda think he's got some of the profile that Hoyer gravitates towards.  He's on the younger end, 29 for a FA isn't bad.  He's >10K/9 career, and K/BB is 3.2, both good profiles.  Career WHIP <1.2.  I think Hoyer has tended to gravitate toward high-HR/low-walk profile with starters, and that's Flaherty.  (1.4HR/9, that's bad.).   But yeah, a strike-throwing guy in his 20's would seem interesting.  I admit part of that view is probably victim-of-former-thought perspective.  Back in 2018-19, I thought he was going to become a big star.  Kinda went down after that. 

He might be a guy who remembers wrigley from contending era, so might perhaps have some good vibes for the Wrigley experience, and what winning in Chicago might feel like? 

Obviously he's not viewed in the same level as Snell/Burnes/Fried.  But probably even Flaherty is too good for Hoyer?  Being 29, and coming off a pretty good season, this is his shot to get a secure long-term contract.  So he's probably in a spot where a 2- or 3-year deal with Hoyer makes no sense.  So, probably outside Hoyer's "intelligent-spending" anti-length model. 

Buehler might be more likely to take the short-term prove-it deal that Hoyer might prefer? 

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