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Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 33817 times)

Dave23

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Hot Stove
« on: November 02, 2023, 09:57:07 am »
Let the offseason begin!
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Dave23

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2023, 07:45:29 am »
Imanaga is reportedly getting posted today.

PJ Higgins has signed a minor league deal with the Reds, with an invite to ST.

Trevor Clifton has signed a minor league deal with Toronto.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2023, 11:59:23 am »
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38905458/shohei-ohtani-free-agent-chicago-cubs-cody-bellinger

Massive update from Jessie.
-It sounds like Ohtani or bust for a big addition
-No bidding war for Bellinger, so if he has interest from another team he's gone
-Shota Imanaga has been to Chicago already
-May try and trade for Burnes if he's avaiable
-Candelario is unlikely to come back
-Morel as mentioned in relation to an Alonso trade, if that is the cost just sign Rhys.

No impression after this.
70% the Cubs have a less talented team on paper
29% they're about the same
1% they improve the roster, call this the Ohtani upset.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2023, 12:00:54 pm by CUBluejays »
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2023, 01:28:20 pm »
I wonder if Ohtani wanting a short deal appeals to Hoyer; whereas Bellinger wanting long doesn't?  He hates long deals and values "flexibility."  So Ohtani will actually be the cheaper deal? 

I like to get media reports and perspectives, and input from "sources".  But Hoyer's front office has been pretty private.  "Multiple sources" is great, but Hoyer isn't telling agents or scouts or assistant GM's from other teams what he's trying to do.  Not sure how much weight, if any, to put on the opinions of industry sources? 

Super dumb Ohtani question. I understand he's not supposed to **pitch** this year.  But is there any chance that he'd like to play 1B, rather than strictly DH, and that the throwing from 1B would be OK for him?  Obviously 1B is a really complex position to play, so perhaps without any experience there even a phenom like Ohtani would be terrible.  Just thinking that perhaps he'd think that would be fun, and he'd feel more a part of the action?  If two teams make similar offers, but the other team can only offer him DH usage, *IF* Hoyer could allow him the chance to play 1B, might that perhaps swing him our way? 

That Imanaga has already been to Chicago is pretty interesting.   
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2023, 01:33:12 pm »
Two Boras thoughts:  He's a good agent and gets his players good deals, but it's still an open market.  And he gets the best players, so if you want to sign top players, you should be willing to talk with Boras.  I think it would be dumb to stay off of Bellinger because he's a Boras guy.  Bellinger is a free agent, so *IF* you sign him, the deal is the deal, who cares if you worked it with Boras? 

But, that's very different with Alonso and Soto, who are NOT FA.  If you sign Bellinger, you get him multi-year.  But *IF* you trade for Alonso or Soto, it's obviously just rental.  Trading for Boras rentals who you know will not extend, there I think being Boras guys, I think that should be a showstopper. 
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chgojhawk

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2023, 01:47:59 pm »
Quote from: craig on November 16, 2023, 01:28:20 pm
I wonder if Ohtani wanting a short deal appeals to Hoyer; whereas Bellinger wanting long doesn't?  He hates long deals and values "flexibility."  So Ohtani will actually be the cheaper deal? 

I like to get media reports and perspectives, and input from "sources".  But Hoyer's front office has been pretty private.  "Multiple sources" is great, but Hoyer isn't telling agents or scouts or assistant GM's from other teams what he's trying to do.  Not sure how much weight, if any, to put on the opinions of industry sources? 

Super dumb Ohtani question. I understand he's not supposed to **pitch** this year.  But is there any chance that he'd like to play 1B, rather than strictly DH, and that the throwing from 1B would be OK for him?  Obviously 1B is a really complex position to play, so perhaps without any experience there even a phenom like Ohtani would be terrible.  Just thinking that perhaps he'd think that would be fun, and he'd feel more a part of the action?  If two teams make similar offers, but the other team can only offer him DH usage, *IF* Hoyer could allow him the chance to play 1B, might that perhaps swing him our way? 

That Imanaga has already been to Chicago is pretty interesting.   

I don't think it would be in Ohtani's best interests, or in the best interests of the club signing him, to have him play 1B.  While there isn't a ton of throwing, there is more than one might think.  Knowing someone is injured would cause opponents to run more on cutoffs, take bigger leads at 1B and steal on first moves from lefthanded pitchers etc.....While nowhere near the same thing, my old man team had a 1B coming off shoulder surgery.  Once teams realized that he couldn't throw they took advantage. 

Even routine things like throwing ground balls between innings was taxing on the arm.  I suppose a team could send someone out to throw groundballs between innings if there isn't a rule prohibiting it. Teams play catch with the corner OF closest to their bullpen so there probably isn't a rule against it.
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Ron

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2023, 02:19:02 pm »
Quote from: craig on November 16, 2023, 01:28:20 pm

I like to get media reports and perspectives, and input from "sources".  But Hoyer's front office has been pretty private.  "Multiple sources" is great, but Hoyer isn't telling agents or scouts or assistant GM's from other teams what he's trying to do.  Not sure how much weight, if any, to put on the opinions of industry sources? 


Exactly. The only people who have any real sense of what the Cubs intend to do, or may or may not do re Ohtani, Bellinger etc are those who are in the most inner circle of the Cubs. And it should be obvious by now that those guys are not talking to the media ... or to opposing teams.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2023, 02:23:19 pm »
Quote from: chgojhawk on November 16, 2023, 01:47:59 pm
I don't think it would be in Ohtani's best interests, or in the best interests of the club signing him, to have him play 1B.  While there isn't a ton of throwing, there is more than one might think.  Knowing someone is injured would cause opponents to run more on cutoffs, take bigger leads at 1B and steal on first moves from lefthanded pitchers etc.....While nowhere near the same thing, my old man team had a 1B coming off shoulder surgery.  Once teams realized that he couldn't throw they took advantage. 

Even routine things like throwing ground balls between innings was taxing on the arm.  I suppose a team could send someone out to throw groundballs between innings if there isn't a rule prohibiting it. Teams play catch with the corner OF closest to their bullpen so there probably isn't a rule against it.

Harper was able to do it towards the end of the year, but they would also give him breaks at DH as well. 
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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2023, 02:37:35 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on November 16, 2023, 02:23:19 pm
Harper was able to do it towards the end of the year, but they would also give him breaks at DH as well. 

Harper isn’t a pitcher too.

Can’t imagine a club that has just spent a fortune for Ohtani—in part as a TORP—taking the risk of having him throw in a game until he is 100% rehabbed as a pitcher.

What’s the point? Ohtani has never played 1B in big leagues even when completely healthy.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2023, 02:38:17 pm »
Quote from: Ron on November 16, 2023, 02:19:02 pm

Exactly. The only people who have any real sense of what the Cubs intend to do, or may or may not do re Ohtani, Bellinger etc are those who are in the most inner circle of the Cubs. And it should be obvious by now that those guys are not talking to the media ... or to opposing teams.

If you listen to Sharma/Mooney on their podcast, they had a pretty good idea that the Cubs wanted a SS and Swanson was the guy they were targeting.  Nothing is 100% when it comes to rumors and things can pop up, but Rogers/Sharma/Mooney seem to have a pretty good idea of the broad strokes.  Go back to previous off seasons under Hoyer.  Sharma/Mooney/Rogers where pretty good at getting the general direction of things.

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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2023, 03:05:40 pm »
My sense is that at least 90% (and probably higher) of trade/FA sources are on the players side.

Who has the interest to spread rumors?

It’s the agents/players wanting to drum up interest, right?

Last year, it was kind of obvious that Cubs were in on the FA SS market. Lots of agents, presumably, spreading the word on that. And, Swanson was the most logical for Cubs—with the caveat of possible Correa interest. Indeed, my recollection is that the board here talked quite a bit about Correa too and how that would be preferable for the Cubs.

Sharma/Mooney/Rogers were no different than the conventional wisdom about the SSs. Doubt that any of that came from the Hoyer inner circle. In fact, the Sharma/Mooney podcast occasionally points out how closed-lip Hoyer tends to be.

Buster has said on his podcast how nothing comes out from the Ohtani group. Closed-lips. And nothing is going to come out from the Hoyer group. Everything I have read about Ohtani is media speculation.

Sometimes, folks reading stuff from the media have difficulty distinguishing between what is speculation and what is source-based reporting.

I suspect  that what will happen is that 10 minutes before a formal announcement, Rosenthal or somebody else will get a heads-up source-based scoop about Ohtani. Before that, it will all be speculation.
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2023, 03:17:52 pm »
I wasn't trying to really push that, and yeah, *IF* he can't throw much, agree it's not good for him or for defense.  Almost certainly a dumb idea. 

I was just kinda looking for some *unique* attraction that Hoyer might maybe offer that perhaps other teams couldn't.  Dodgers aren't going to sit Freddie to give Shohei starts at 1B; but with us having no 1B, we could allow for that.  Even just the possibility, *if* he wanted to and *if* his doctors said it was fine.  I don't know the comeback path, but I thought that sometimes within 6 months guys were throwing long-toss and stuff.  So maybe tossing it back to the pitcher, or long-tossing it to 3B wouldn't be beyond his scope?  But assuming it isn't safe to throw to 2B, or he doesn't want to, there would be no attraction to even mention it. 

Anything else *uniquely* appealing about the Cubs that Hoyer would be able to showcase or use to separate us?  Other than outbidding the world? 

Maybe signing Yamamoto, has there ever been a team with two Japanese TORP guys?  Or Imanaga, has any team ever had two Japanese rotation starters at all, even if the second wasn't a star? 
« Last Edit: November 16, 2023, 03:30:10 pm by craig »
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2023, 03:47:08 pm »
Dumb question.  Imagine the following.  How close would this take us to or over the lux line?
1.  Imanaga rotation
2.  Hoskins 1B
3.  Chapman 3B
4.  Relief help. 
5.  Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF


Q's: 
1.  Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take us over? 
2.  Is that perhaps even more than Hoyer is willing to spend, and even that is too much?  He'd rather back off with a 3B more in the Candelario-level price range?  Or Gibson-cost rotation guy versus Imanaga? 
3.  Blue, might that be the kind of pool of players that Hoyer might be shooting for, do you think? 
4.  *IF* that was the winter action, would we be disappointed/frustrated?  Or OK with that, and take our chances with the unpredictabilities of baseball? 
5.  Would that kind of a winter really surprise you?  Or is that kind of what you really expect, and signing any of Ohtani, Bellinger, Yamamoto, or Hader would be a big and pleasant surprise, but more pipe dream than actual expectation? 
« Last Edit: November 16, 2023, 04:04:31 pm by craig »
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Playtwo

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2023, 03:53:39 pm »
I really hope they're able to snag one of Ohtani/Bellinger/Soto.  It's hard to see how they maintain or improve the offense otherwise.
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CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2023, 04:09:45 pm »
Sorry if this sounds convoluted, but sometimes it can harm more than hurt to be too close mouthed.  Getting to know your opponents ' thinking can be advantageous and denying rumors you yourself started can help stir the pot.  I often wonder how often teams allow things, true or not, to slip out.
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