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Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 33800 times)

craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2023, 05:04:37 pm »
Quote from: Reb on November 16, 2023, 03:05:40 pm
My sense is that at least 90% (and probably higher) of trade/FA sources are on the players side.   ...It’s the agents/players wanting to drum up interest, right?

Last year, it was kind of obvious that Cubs were in on the FA SS market. Lots of agents, presumably, spreading the word on that. ..

Yeah,  Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson agents can all confirm Cubs have talked.  At one point there was speculation that they might even sign two of them, with Bogaerts sliding to 3B.  Would be curious if agents for Snell, Gray, and Montgomery have been asked and what they'd say. 
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2023, 05:05:40 pm »
Kind of a funky FA scenario where both league Cy Youngs are available, but neither is the top pitcher on the market. 
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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2023, 05:08:49 pm »
Quote from: craig on November 16, 2023, 03:47:08 pm
….Imagine the following.  How close would this take us to or over the lux line?
1.  Imanaga rotation
2.  Hoskins 1B
3.  Chapman 3B
4.  Relief help. 
5.  Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF

Q's: 
1.  Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take us over? …..


RR has Cubs at estimated $186-190 AAV 2024 currently, including “player benefits” and the like.

Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say, bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson.

That’s, say, $190 plus $63=  $253.

First level CBT is $237. Second level CBT is $257.
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CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2023, 05:35:35 pm »
"Dumb question.  Imagine the following.  How close would this take us to or over the lux line?
1.  Imanaga rotation
2.  Hoskins 1B
3.  Chapman 3B
4.  Relief help.
5.  Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF


Q's:
1.  Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take us over?  "

Might get Hoyer to the unemployment line.
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2023, 05:56:16 pm »
Quote from: Reb on November 16, 2023, 05:08:49 pm
...Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say, bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson.

That’s, say, $190 plus $63=  $253.   First level CBT is $237. ...

Yeah, so that kind of distribution of non-star, not-super-exciting acquisitions might be the way the money goes.  I'm guessing some of those prices are maybe a little high?  Senga was $14 last year, and he was much better guy than Imanaga.  But yeah, I could easily envision working with a group of signings of that kind of style, no stars, not much long-term guarantee. 
« Last Edit: November 16, 2023, 07:26:27 pm by craig »
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Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2023, 06:07:46 pm »
I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing estimated are close.  Seems unlikely to produce offensively at levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a contract.

As for Imanaga, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him eventually come in around the same as Senga (5/$75M, which I’d be OK with).  Not as good a prospect, but it’s a year later.  And guys like Senga succeeding in MLB drives up the cost of the guy that comes after them.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2023, 06:10:39 pm by Deeg »
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CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2023, 06:11:12 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on November 16, 2023, 06:07:46 pm
I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing estimated are close.  Seems unlikely to produce offensively at levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a contract.
Yes, but if we get Chapman and re-sign Bellinger, we could have an all gold glove infield.  How cool would that be?  Our announcers could remind us every damb broadcast!
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JeffH

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2023, 07:50:07 pm »
Quote from: Reb on November 16, 2023, 05:08:49 pm
RR has Cubs at estimated $186-190 AAV 2024 currently, including “player benefits” and the like.

My reckoning suggests that the $190 will be closer to $180 by the time all is said and done.  Still, Reb's post is illustrative.
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2023, 07:59:48 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on November 16, 2023, 06:07:46 pm
I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing estimated are close.  Seems unlikely to produce offensively at levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a contract. ...

Yeah, $20 is too high for my liking.  Nice glove, but I want some offense.  Another easy-out low-.700's K-guy who bats .225 doesn't appeal, probably getting worse as 30's roll. 

I'd rather short-term roster-fill at 3B for now.  Hoping Shaw works out as a true-blue hitter with more power than Hoerner; and decent shortstops often learn to play a decent 3B.  Some cheap short-term roster-fill guy like Candelario might fit.  But I'd rather not spend real money on 3B. 
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davep

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2023, 08:02:24 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on November 16, 2023, 04:09:45 pm
Sorry if this sounds convoluted, but sometimes it can harm more than hurt to be too close mouthed.  Getting to know your opponents ' thinking can be advantageous and denying rumors you yourself started can help stir the pot.  I often wonder how often teams allow things, true or not, to slip out.

Actually, I think that we are onto something here.  This is what we know.

1. All agents, except for that of Ohtani, All players except for Ohtani, and all executives other than the Cubs executives, spread rumors about impending deals.

2. Hoyer and his executives never spread any rumors about impending deals.

3. Ohtani never spreads rumors about impending deals.

4. There are no rumors about impending deals.

Therefore, we can be absolutely certain that the Cubs and Ohtani are about to sign a new contract.  Probably by tomorrow.
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Reb

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2023, 08:05:44 pm »
Quote from: davep on November 16, 2023, 08:02:24 pm
…..Probably by tomorrow.

I’ll take the over on that.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2023, 08:46:08 pm »
Quote from: craig on November 16, 2023, 03:47:08 pm
Dumb question.  Imagine the following.  How close would this take us to or over the lux line?
1.  Imanaga rotation
2.  Hoskins 1B
3.  Chapman 3B
4.  Relief help. 
5.  Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF


Q's: 
1.  Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take us over? 
2.  Is that perhaps even more than Hoyer is willing to spend, and even that is too much?  He'd rather back off with a 3B more in the Candelario-level price range?  Or Gibson-cost rotation guy versus Imanaga? 
3.  Blue, might that be the kind of pool of players that Hoyer might be shooting for, do you think? 
4.  *IF* that was the winter action, would we be disappointed/frustrated?  Or OK with that, and take our chances with the unpredictabilities of baseball? 
5.  Would that kind of a winter really surprise you?  Or is that kind of what you really expect, and signing any of Ohtani, Bellinger, Yamamoto, or Hader would be a big and pleasant surprise, but more pipe dream than actual expectation? 
1) Over, some of Reb’s guesses might be lo
2) Hopefully the Cubs can spend more
3) Good players that don’t fix what the Cubs need.  Perfect Hoyer targets.
4) disappointing.  The Cubs would be worse on paper even though the record could be better with luck.  If the Brewers rebuild the division is there for the taking.
5) if any of Ohtani, Soto, Bellringer or Yamamoto are Cubs
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craig

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2023, 10:43:37 am »
Quote from: Craig
Imagine the following. 
1.  Imanaga rotation
2.  Hoskins 1B
3.  Chapman 3B
4.  Relief help.
5.  Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF..
Quote from: Reb on November 16, 2023, 05:08:49 pm
...Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say, bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson.  That’s, say, $190 plus $63=  $253.  First level CBT is $237. Second level CBT is $257.

Curt mentioned this could move Hoyer to the unemployment line.  Sobering, that moves like this could be pushing toward the second-level lux, yet we'd feel generally disappointed. 
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CUBluejays

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2023, 12:54:22 pm »
Quote from: craig on November 17, 2023, 10:43:37 am
Curt mentioned this could move Hoyer to the unemployment line.  Sobering, that moves like this could be pushing toward the second-level lux, yet we'd feel generally disappointed. 

Does anybody really believe that Ricketts would pull a Hoyer?  I have a hard time believing that Tom would show up at Hoyer's house and let him go if there was a Counsell level baseball executive that was a free agent.  Short of Theo wanting to come back I think this is Jed's job until he doesn' want it any more. 
'
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CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2023, 01:00:00 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on November 17, 2023, 12:54:22 pm
Does anybody really believe that Ricketts would pull a Hoyer?  I have a hard time believing that Tom would show up at Hoyer's house and let him go if there was a Counsell level baseball executive that was a free agent.  Short of Theo wanting to come back I think this is Jed's job until he doesn' want it any more. 
'
Are you talking about the same owner who approved of dumping a first year manager for Joe and then dumping a Cub hero for Craig? 
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