Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 284816 times)

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10695 on: October 14, 2022, 06:10:03 pm »
But does Jensen have a big Johnson?

DUSTY

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10696 on: October 14, 2022, 07:13:43 pm »
Lol

Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10697 on: October 17, 2022, 09:13:15 pm »
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Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10698 on: October 18, 2022, 08:19:49 am »
A disappointing report  on Mervis from Keith Law's notes on what he saw at the AFL. Not sure how seriously to take this.  Thoughts from others?

"So Iíve gotten a lot of questions about Cubs first baseman Matt Mervis, especially after he homered twice in a game last week. I saw all three of his homers during the week while I was there, and all three came on hanging breaking balls from right-handers, pitches heís not likely to ever see in the majors. Mervis was undrafted twice out of Duke, graduating in 2020 and signing as a free agent with the Cubs, who started him in High A this year as a 24-year-old. He hit well enough there to move up to Double A, and again there to move up to Triple A, hitting .297/.383/.593 with just a 12 percent strikeout rate. Heís very strong, but does not have great bat speed, and even in the pitching-light AFL his difficulty with velocity middle-in or just in showed up very quickly; when pitchers did come inside, even with just average fastballs, he couldnít do anything beyond popping them up. I could see a role for him as a platoon 1B/DH, like Daniel Vogelbach, but not beyond that."


https://theathletic.com/3703139/2022/10/18/mlb-prospects-arizona-fall-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10699 on: October 18, 2022, 08:54:57 am »
That was basically my concern in what little I've seen of him, and Law (who's no sure bet when it comes to his prognostications) isn't the first scout to make such comments about Mervis.  To my eye he doesn't look especially quick through the zone or athletic generally - his movement is kind of stiff and mechanical.  But the numbers are what they are, and you absolutely have to find out what he can do against big league pitching.

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10700 on: October 18, 2022, 09:16:54 am »
hanging breaking balls from right-handers, pitches heís not likely to ever see in the majors

Good grief.
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Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10701 on: October 18, 2022, 09:19:15 am »
hanging breaking balls from right-handers, pitches heís not likely to ever see in the majors

Good grief.

Yeah, obviously.  But guys who can only hit mistakes are limited in their upside.  If he canít handle velocity at all (who knows if that will be the case), most MLB pitchers throw hard enough to give him a steady diet of inside fastballs.

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10702 on: October 18, 2022, 09:26:04 am »
His open stance perhaps suggests an attempt to open up early on such offerings.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10703 on: October 18, 2022, 09:33:13 am »
I like Law and among the guys that are public I think he provides so interesting insights.

A counterpoint.

Aram Leighton
@AramLeighton8
Replying to
@cubprospects
 and
@elgin_bill
The data would argue that bat speed is FAR from an issue. In 63 Triple-A games against four seamers Mervis hit:

.360/.461/.800 with 93% zone contact.

Against FB 94 MPH and above: .323/.417/.452. He was actually one of the better fastball hitters in the upper Minors.

My answer is I have no clue.

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10704 on: October 18, 2022, 10:21:58 am »
The counterpoint to the counterpoint is the location variable.  Can big league pitchers consistently locate high velocity fastballs inside whereas AAA pitchers cannot?

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10705 on: October 18, 2022, 11:18:11 am »
MLB pitchers are going to locate the ball better, without a doubt. 

It would be interesting to know what the league average OPS is against 94+ mph fastballs in majors.  If his bat speed is an issues he's going to have trouble catching up to even poorly located velocity in the minors.

ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10706 on: October 18, 2022, 11:56:29 am »
Most likely, whatever early success Mervis may have in the bigs, pitchers will adjust and he will have to adjust, if he can.

He did a great job adjusting to new environments at each new level last season, but MLB is a different animal.

Still, if he's one of those rare guys who can continue to adjust effectively, it seems like he would have a chance to be a good big league hitter.


Bennett

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10707 on: October 18, 2022, 12:45:24 pm »
On Mervis not being drafted - it still has meaning but not as much as it used to since the draft is only 20 rounds now.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10708 on: October 18, 2022, 12:53:41 pm »
On Mervis not being drafted - it still has meaning but not as much as it used to since the draft is only 20 rounds now.

It was only 5 in his draft because of COVID.
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Bennett

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10709 on: October 18, 2022, 01:52:16 pm »
It was only 5 in his draft because of COVID.
In other words we should almost not pay attention to his not being drafted.
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