Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324249 times)

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10725 on: October 22, 2022, 10:34:13 pm »
Yeah, let’s not be fooled by a fielder finishing a play well, after an initial poor read.

Same thing for the previous defensive Canario video with a nice catch—a poor, altered route to the ball.

Really good defenders make plays look easy, or easier. Good reads and good routes.

Maybe a few plays aren’t representative of his game, one way or the other.

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10726 on: October 22, 2022, 10:51:58 pm »
On the first play Chris posted he's already starting towards the ball by time the camera picks him up, and he actually does make the play look pretty easy.  That's if you want to go by what's actually in the video.

I don't think anyone is expecting Canario to be a Gold Glover in CF, but the Cubs set the bar extremely low this season in terms of CF defense - if he can be average he'd be a step up.  Theoretically you'd hope PCA could cover that spot by sometime in 2024, and you'd really only need Canario to play a lot of center next season if the Cubs go cheap as usual and don't bring in a legit CF.  Somebody like Nimmo not only brings a desperately needed lefty bat, he can easily slide over to a corner in '24 or '25 and likely provide plus defense there.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10727 on: October 22, 2022, 11:29:48 pm »
On the first play Chris posted he's already starting towards the ball by time the camera picks him up, and he actually does make the play look pretty easy.  That's if you want to go by what's actually in the video…


On that play, it’s not the jump—it’s the route. Canario clearly alters the route late to get to the ball. That tells you that, for most of the route, it was inefficient. So, the catch itself looks harder than it should be.
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ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10728 on: October 23, 2022, 09:18:18 am »
Cubs have 3 HIGH-upside young OFers in Canario, Davis and PCA. It's hard to see any playing a big MLB role in CF next season, but their upside raises issues about what to do with switch-hitting Ian Happ, whose play this season otherwise deserves a multi-year contract offer before his free agency after '23.

Despite his phenomenal last season, PCA won't turn 21 until March and only has about 450 MiLB ABs.  Let's hope he can take over CF in 2024 at some point .

Brennen Davis is coming off a major injury and only has about 750 MiLB ABs total (and his '22 numbers due to injury were terrible), so it's hard to imagine he would have any sort of MLB role before late next season, assuming he re-establishes his prospect status before then.

Canario has about double the minors ABs as Davis and - with his fabulous HR power, .550+ SLG, .900 OPS (despite barely hitting .250 for the year) - seems by far the most MLB-ready of the 3 for next season. But he won't turn 23 until May and only had around 50 AAA ABs - seems like he'd have to hit REALLY well in AAA for a while AND establish himself as a CF to get the big-league call to that position. 

Depending on how the Cub brass view Canario's internal make up and his play in '23, it's possible they would throw him into CF at some point next season, but it will very likely just be a matter of time before PCA takes over there.

While all of Canario, Davis and PCA have major potential upside; but not all great prospects pan out and Happ has established his MLB starter value.   

Still, due to our 3 young potential stud OFers and the generally conservative nature in which Hoyer has operated thus far, I'd guess Cubs will be unlikely to offer Happ a multi-year contract this offseason; seems more likely Hoyer et al will kick that can down the road for a while in '23 to see more of Canario, PCA and Davis (and, maybe, other LH Cub hitters) before deciding what they want to attempt to do with Happ. 

Hopefully, interesting problems to have.   


Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10729 on: October 23, 2022, 09:36:51 am »
Happ seems to be in an ascending phase of his career.  He might want to bet on himself by taking a short-term extension with the goal of landing a much bigger and longer contract in a few years.

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10730 on: October 23, 2022, 09:38:48 am »
Happ seems to be in an ascending phase of his career.  He might want to bet on himself by taking a short-term extension with the goal of landing a much bigger and longer contract in a few years.

Why would that make sense for him?

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10731 on: October 23, 2022, 09:57:23 am »
Chance for a bigger payday?

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10732 on: October 23, 2022, 10:00:32 am »
How often do players do such a thing?

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10733 on: October 23, 2022, 12:56:01 pm »
Short-term deals, generally, are for guys coming off a poor or injury season that’s below their usual standards, that is to “re-establish” their value.

Happ is in precisely the opposite situation: he never “established” anything before 2022 and then achieved a career 4 WAR season.

So, Happ is approaching his opportunity for a long-term payday. Makes no sense for him to focus on a short-term deal.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10734 on: October 23, 2022, 04:08:51 pm »
Happ seems to be in an ascending phase of his career.  He might want to bet on himself ....

I think he'll bet on himself by playing this season out and hitting FA after 2023, when he'll be 29. 

I think hoping to get ≥2 championship-level starting OF from Canario-Davis-PCA is reasonable and hopeful, but it would be presumptuous at this point to assume so.  I don't think Happ will take it if offered a fair extension this winter, but I'd support offering it and and being pleased if he does accept it. 

But I expect next year will play out, and we'll see whether PCA, Davis, or Canario can hit or not next year.  *IF* everybody is looking good, or *IF* you both extend Happ AND all three prospects look promising, it would be really sweet to have some surplus/depth on the roster.  And it would be really sweet to have a good, big-league ready player available to trade for something else you need. 
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10735 on: October 24, 2022, 07:31:00 pm »
https://theathletic.com/3602165/2022/09/18/cubs-pitching-prospects-draft/?source=emp_shared_article

This is an article from last month.  But I don't think I'd seen it or read it previously.  Casey Jacobson is the director or pitcher development.  Talks about 4 pitchers, Wicks, Ben  Brown, Horton, and Ferris. 

Given the length of the article, I thought there might be more developmental info in it, but not much.  Brown probably the most.  Some nice stuff about what a nice guy he is and how he wants to understand why he should try anything.  Jacobson suggested that he's fastball/curve mostly now, and his curve is good.  "“There’s some room that we want to explore with the slider." and "We’ve talked about working through some changeup exploration. He hasn’t thrown one this year. He’s thrown it in the past. He didn’t really like the way that they went about it with Philly."  Will be interesting if they can find anything that's useful between those two.  If they did find an excellent 3rd pitch, his possibilities are pretty intriguing.  If he's a fastball-curveball reliever, good relievers are still fun to have. 

Horton, he didn't really say much in terms of developmental goals.  "it’s hard to argue with how dominant he was, and how much just unbelievable, overpowering stuff was coming out of that arm."  So no real indications what the developmental goals might be, whether it's going to be focused on changeup, or finding a curveball that differentiated better from his sometimes excellent slider.  Jacobson didn't really say anything about what he might be working on. 

Wicks, mostly talked about how smart and motivated he was.  "Jordan's brilliant".  Mentioned that "We adjusted the slider. We adjusted the curveball."  My personal guess is that the ability to optimize both and to locate them consistently might be his key.  I do wonder about his change.  I think the pre-season reports were that his change was great, and they didn't need to touch that, that's his signature pitch.  But I thought I read somewhere that the pitch data on his change this season was actually just kinda average, that it didn't really look very special.  Perhaps the Cubs disagree; or perhaps that will want some optimizing too?  Somewhere or other, I assume he's going to need some signature pitch that's kinda special. 

Ferris, "..(Ferris) checks a lot of those boxes (from a scouting perspective). He’s wiry. He’s athletic. He’s loose. The ball just flies out of his hand. Really good connection in his delivery. But with a high school guy, you’re looking for that projectability. Not only does he have present qualities, but he’s got that projectability as well. That was a really easy one for everyone to be aligned on."

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10736 on: October 26, 2022, 03:38:43 pm »
Mervis homered again.  Off of a lefty.
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Dave23

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10737 on: October 26, 2022, 05:06:45 pm »
Clearly a soft tossing lefty, given his lack of bat speed…

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10738 on: October 26, 2022, 05:07:51 pm »
Any sign of Davis yet?

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10739 on: October 26, 2022, 05:08:48 pm »
Clearly a soft tossing lefty, given his lack of bat speed…

Well, it was off a breaking ball!