Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 284816 times)

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10860 on: November 28, 2022, 01:50:42 pm »
https://theathletic.com/3920862/2022/11/22/cubs-pitching-prospect-ryan-jensen/

The link to the Jensen article.  They seem pretty enthusiastic about his capacity, which is encouraging. 

There is some positive hype/spin hyperbole. 
1.  "..velocity that consistently approaches 100 mph". 
2.  "right now, the Cubs aren’t going to pigeonhole someone with a repertoire that one team official graded out as “six above-average pitches.” "

There is also some hype that Jensen bought in and will now be able to incorporate the corrections.  I admit some hesitation, myself.  They've had a pitch lab since the year he was drafted, so I remain somewhat guarded that he's going to be able to now incorporate pitch-lab improvements successfully when he hadn't for years prior.  Even if he's got six above-average pitches, will there be even one that he can consistently locate? 

But perhaps going so haywire last year was just what he needed to finally buy into development ideas they have for him, and into technology that can help him figure things out.  Would be super cool if he's ready to break out as a good-stuff good pitcher. 

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10861 on: November 28, 2022, 09:03:37 pm »
He has shortened his arm stroke even more on a short clip that was posted in the off season.

The pitch lab has amazing technology, but you also need the coaches/analysts to use it. The Cubs have massively upgraded thie people part recently. The results and what the Cubs have been doing the last few years is a huge leap forward.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10862 on: November 29, 2022, 09:26:33 am »
He has shortened his arm stroke even more on a short clip that was posted in the off season.

...The Cubs have massively upgraded the people part recently. The results and what the Cubs have been doing the last few years is a huge leap forward.

Hope it works for him.  You build a team and a pitching staff one guy at a time.  Having Jensen turn into a good pitcher would be really helpful. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10863 on: November 30, 2022, 01:05:50 pm »
https://theathletic.com/3949945/2022/11/30/cubs-cade-horton-jackson-ferris/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

Nice article on the three big-ticket draftees, and what the Cubs see developmentally.  Some notes:

1.  "...the organization believes it’s found developmental opportunities in adding to his [Horton's] pitch mix."  "The process to add a curveball and changeup to his repertoire has started."

2.  "The Cubs identified early some opportunities to influence the way Ferris moves as their internal focus on biomechanics worked with the strength and conditioning department to develop a plan to clean up his delivery."

"Ferris opened eyes at instructs by sitting 93-95 with his fastball.... That this was happening with little ramp-up in October has some believing there is clearly more in the tank velocity-wise for the southpaw.  He also displayed a power slider and a slower curveball with downer action. The goal is to separate the two pitches a bit more, have the curve add a little more power — it’s slower and bigger at the moment — and be a platoon-neutral pitch. The slider, which is ahead of the curve currently, should be what he uses to dominate lefties."

3.  Mule:  "...the priority is building up the body rather than focusing on the repertoire or pitch shape....  the Cubs are just beginning to add strength and power to his 6-foot-3 frame...." 

"At instructs, Mulé displayed a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with life and paired it with an eye-opening mid-80s slider....  Mulé has a curve and a change — which he reportedly has pretty good feel for — and the belief is the pitch mix will evolve over time, but currently isn’t the focus of his development."

 
« Last Edit: November 30, 2022, 01:07:32 pm by craig »

dallen7908

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10864 on: December 02, 2022, 10:32:48 am »

Baseball America is gradually adding players to their Rule 5 preview page.  Today, they got around to adding two Cubs.  Both players careers are off to slow starts due to injuries but have good stuff and could be stashed on the DL for a sizable chunk of 2023 without raising any eyebrows.

"Yovanny Cruz, RHP, Cubs

It’s fairly accurate to say that Cruz is a far out pick, with just 8.1 innings above the now defunct short-season level. He’s older at 23 for a player with so little experience due to the pandemic and having Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2021. Cruz returned this season, making 10 appearances between the Arizona Complex League and High-A. While we have just 13.2 innings to go off of, Cruz flashed plus stuff, sitting 98-99 mph and touching 101 mph per Trackman. He pairs his fastball with a tight mid-80s slider that was dominant in his limited time on the mound in 2022. With one of the highest average fastball velocities of any Rule 5-eligible pitcher, Cruz is worthy of mention, but his lack of full-season experience makes this an extremely risky pick.

Danis Correa, RHP, Cubs

Correa is a hard-throwing undersized righthanded reliever with two bat-missing secondaries and some command woes. Correa’s four-seam fastball sits 96-98 mph, touching 100 with average command. However, it’s Correa’s pair of bat-missing secondaries in his upper-80s changeup and his low-80s two-plane curveball with raw spin rates in the 2,600-2,700 rpm range on average that stand out. Each of Correa’s secondaries generated whiff rates above 50% and contributed to his 52.4% groundball rate in 2022. While his command and walk rate leave something to be desired he offsets many of his walk issues with whiffs and bad contact. Correa should be an attractive option to clubs as he’ll be just 23 years old for a majority of 2023 and has a season’s worth of upper-minors experience. Factor in his plus fastball velocity, two bat-missing secondaries and ability to generate ground balls and you can easily see Correa selected."

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10865 on: December 02, 2022, 12:11:56 pm »
Guessing that Correa may have been Cubs most difficult Rule 5 decision.

As we’ve discussed here already, Correa is the kind of guy that clubs like to take a flyer on in the Rule 5 and seems like a strong chance he is selected.

Of course, it’s another matter for any drafting team to meet the Rule 5 requirements all season. Even if selected, probably at least a 50-50 chance he’s returned after passing thru waivers—like Rucker was returned from Baltimore a few seasons ago.

Could be that Leiter Jr.’s emergence over the last 1/3 of the 2022 season made it more difficult to find a roster spot for Correa, even with Leiter now a no-options-remaining guy. They seem to like him. Leiter was really good over his last 21 appearances.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10866 on: December 02, 2022, 12:41:33 pm »
I think two different levels in Rule 5.  How probable is it that you might lose a guy?  How much risk if you do, long term? 

I think that Correa is variably high probability of getting selected. 

But I'm not sure the long-term impact of losing a wild reliever is maybe as severe as if you lose a long-term starter?  I'm kinda thinking that *IF* you were to lose Franklin, Thompson, or Devers, any of those have a possibility of turning into long-term good rotation starters.  *IF* one of Franklin/Devers/Thompson gets taken, kept, *and* hypothetically (improbably) works out to hit their ceilings as good rotation guys, that might go down in memory as a classic blunder.  More so than if Correa gets taken and emerges as a good-stuff wild reliever. 

We'll probably always have a supply of good-stuff wildman relievers in the pipe. 

Hopefully we lose none of them, and they all turn into quality useful major leaguers for the Cubs. 

dallen7908

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10867 on: December 02, 2022, 01:16:37 pm »
Yes, I'm also in the "I'm not going to get too worked up about losing a right-handed reliever camp".

With the exception of Hector Rendon, the Cubs haven't done very well in the Rule 5 recently.

Until about 5 minutes ago, I had no idea that the Cubs picked up Hack Wilson in the Rule 5 draft.  For some reason I had it in my head that the Rule 5 draft started in the 1960s.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-all-time-rule-5-draft-picks

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10868 on: December 02, 2022, 02:13:55 pm »
Agree that Cubs probably would rather lose Correa than lose Devers or Franklin, that is, “lose” meaning not just getting picked but “gone”—— by sticking in the majors all season.

But that doesn’t mean that either Franklin or Devers was closer to being protected by Cubs than Correa being protected by Cubs.

Every club has to weigh likelihood of ACTUALLY losing the player with the risk of exposing another higher upside or long-term potentially more valuable guy less likely to be drafted and retained.

As neither Devers or Franklin has pitched beyond A ball and, in Franklin’s case, pitched ineffectively, that has to be weighed in roster decision-making, of course. Obviously, Cubs did that.

Think that Rule 5 picks have to earn their way these days, to actually make and stay on an active roster. Even a bad club is very disinclined to keep an unoptionable dead spot in a 8-man bullpen all season. So, to keep Franklin or Devers, that guy would have to be a contributor of some sort and not a dead spot. Could see drafting one or both just to look at the guy in spring training and evaluate whether can contribute. But, seems like a longshot for any club. Correa, on the other hand, might actually be one of some club’s top 8 bullpen guys by end of spring training—could see that.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10869 on: December 02, 2022, 03:01:12 pm »
Your points are well taken.  I don't dispute that for those reasons mentioned, that Correa may have indeed been the closest non-protectee to having gotten protected. 

Even if he wasn't, it may still have been that guys like Sanders or Thompson might have been closer than Devers or Franklin.  They might not have even been considered. 

But yeah, as Dahlen says, *if* hypothetically somebody takes and keeps Correa, or Sanders, I kinda feel like that's the way it goes.  You can't protect every wild reliever, and if somebody else grabs one of yours and he blossoms into a useful reliever, that's the just the way it goes, I won't have much regret. 

*IF* somebody was to grab and keep one of our starters, and he turned into a >170-IP >3WAR/year starter, I'd regret that very much.  I'm not saying the likelihood of one of those starters both getting selected, and actually kept, and then actually being long-term good for some other team is more than remotely improbable. 
« Last Edit: December 02, 2022, 03:07:13 pm by craig »

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10870 on: December 02, 2022, 03:47:29 pm »
Yes, I'm also in the "I'm not going to get too worked up about losing a right-handed reliever camp".

With the exception of Hector Rendon, the Cubs haven't done very well in the Rule 5 recently.

Until about 5 minutes ago, I had no idea that the Cubs picked up Hack Wilson in the Rule 5 draft.  For some reason I had it in my head that the Rule 5 draft started in the 1960s.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-all-time-rule-5-draft-picks

And the Pirates got Roberto Clemente from the Yankees, if I remember correctly.

But in those days, a team could have more than 20 minor league teams in their system, and the sheer number of players, and the lack of a national communication system made it more difficult to follow all those eligible for the draft.

I would hate to lose Correa, whom I still consider to be a starter prospect.  However, I also agree that there are probably 10 other guys available in the draft that are probably as good as he is as a prospect.

CurtOne

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10871 on: December 02, 2022, 08:48:30 pm »
Wasn't Pedro Martinez a rule 5?

JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10872 on: December 02, 2022, 09:03:02 pm »
Johan Santana was.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10873 on: December 02, 2022, 09:22:43 pm »
Four Cub Rule 5 Draftees:
1.  Jody Davis,
2.  Willie Guillermo Hernandez, who won the Cy Young a year after we traded him. (Pitched 140 innings in relief!  He had back-to-back-to-back seasons over 100 innings in relief!)
3.  Hector Rondon
4.  And then of course there was Josh Hamilton, who went on to win MVP and stack 5 straight all-star seasons


davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10874 on: December 03, 2022, 01:11:18 pm »
Four Cub Rule 5 Draftees:

4.  And then of course there was Josh Hamilton, who went on to win MVP and stack 5 straight all-star seasons



That was because the Cubs immediately traded him.  If they had kept him, he would have topped out as a part time utility infielder.