Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 284831 times)

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10890 on: December 07, 2022, 07:50:14 pm »
Carter Hawkins said the lefty they took in the minor league draft gets up to 98.

That's cool.  He's only 20, so time to improve. Curious that Seattle had left a 98-mph 20-year-old lefty exposed.  Is their system super deep? 

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10891 on: December 07, 2022, 08:20:26 pm »
Velocity on its own doesn’t make someone a top prospect, as some recent examples in our own system would bear out.  I assume there are concerns with command/control and/or secondaries or they would have protected him.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10892 on: December 07, 2022, 08:28:51 pm »
Second round of minor league Rule 5, Cubs took former cup-of-coffee major leaguer Nick Burdi.

Burdi is a former 2nd round draft pick. He turns 30 in January.

Burdi had TJ surgery in 2017, thoracic outlet surgery in 2019, and a second TJ surgery in 2020. Needless to say, he hasn’t pitched since 2020. Last pitched in minors in 2018. Drafted from Padres organization.

According to AZ Phil, Burdi has so much major league service time from IL status on the 40-man, he would be arb eligible if he was on major league roster.

Well, the guy has perseverance. Burdi used to throw in upper 90s, touching 100. Would be a nice story.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2022, 08:38:59 pm by Reb »

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10893 on: December 07, 2022, 08:41:40 pm »
This year’s Danny Hultzen.  Those stories rarely work out, but guys who’ve been through that are easy to root for.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10894 on: December 07, 2022, 08:47:29 pm »
That's cool.  He's only 20, so time to improve. Curious that Seattle had left a 98-mph 20-year-old lefty exposed.  Is their system super deep? 

You can only protect so many pitchers at the AAA level and he has barely pitched.   Teams just have a ton of hard throwers.  He's certainly worth the a shot and he's basically free being a minor league Rule 5 pick..  This is the guy they talked about and not Burdi.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10895 on: December 07, 2022, 09:01:42 pm »
Velocity on its own doesn’t make someone a top prospect, as some recent examples in our own system would bear out.  I assume there are concerns with command/control and/or secondaries or they would have protected him.

For sure true.  Still, I think you get about 40 guys on your AAA roster.  (Maybe not that many, I don't remember).  So between 40-man big-league and hypothetically 40-man AAA roster, you could hypothetically protect your most intriguing 80 players who are draft eligible.  If it's 80, you might not have 80 draft-eligible guys more compelling than a 97-mph lefty who's still only 20. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10896 on: December 07, 2022, 11:19:57 pm »
As you wise people had known, the Cubs weren't likely to lose much talent in Rule 5.  But I'm intrigued to think what the development system and another season might do with some of the pitchers.  Seems like we've got a lot of interesting pitchers who really haven't had much healthy time with Cubs.  I'm thinking often a learner tries stuff for a while, figures out what works, what doesn't, and what needs more attention, and then the second year things might lock in much better?

1.  Thompson:  First year back in a while, missed time in devo camp, and was wildly inconsistent.  But has a good arm with a good curveball, on sharp days he sometimes K'd guys in bunches.  Finished very well.  Given a second year in high-minors, how good might he be?  Good enough to be a big-league starter?  Or stuff that would play very well in relief? 

2.  Franklin:  struggled, but very limited usage, and down the stretch began to flash some good games.  Will his control remain too erratic?  Or with a fresh season, might he emerge as a serious rotation prospect with reasonable command? 

3.  Devers:  Will velocity take another step, or no?  His change is much praised, but might his breaking ball sharpen up and get good, too?  Or in AA will his stuff be exposed as mediocre and inadequate?  A year from now he might be really a high-value guy; or he might be a forgotten guy, and I'll look back and shake my head that at one time I wondered if he might be a serious guy. 

4.  Wicks:  only one year of action.  How much better or more consistent might he be in his second year, and in a year fully in high-minors?  Will his change actually be anything special, or not really?  His new slider? 

5.  Daniel P:  Only got him late 21, and used very cautiously this year.  Can he come back next year, sustain stuff for ≥80 pitches, sustain control, and have the stuff he throws still dominate in high-minors?  A year from now will he still be a rotation prospect? 

6.  Little:  Injured/devo 21.  This was first season, under very limited/guarded usage.  Given another year of development with expanded pitch count, will he still look as dominant?  As wild/inconsistent?  By next winter will he still be a starter possibility, or relief-only? 

7.  The biochemist:  With one pro season behind him, will his second year, in high minors, expose him?  Or will he actually look like a big-league lefty-relief option?

8. Horn;  pitched part of this season, but still not that much, and only 51 IP.  What wild is, will wild remain?  Or will his control sharpen up enough to look like a big-league lefty? 

9.  Sanders, just converted to relief.  In relief, can he have the stuff, command, and consistency to make his nice stuff work? 

10.  Ben Brown, we've only had him for a month or two.  Will he improve and look even more promising?  Will his delivery be improved and his repertoire diversified to his advantage?  Or will asking him to diversify just make him wilder?

11.  Killian:  Is he just too wild and his stuff too straight?  Or in his second year with the Cubs, will pitch-lab adjustments start to kick in and pay off, and he'll somehow be able to recover command of his fastball? 


12.  Jensen:  After all of his arm shortenings and dev-camp stuff, might he throw strikes more consistently?  Could consistency and reasonable command ever come together, and suddenly you've got a good major-leaguer? 

Just so many guys who we've had for so little time and for such limited development, I'm just super intrigued to see where another offseason and real season of development will place them all.  A lot of guys who, *IF* they could take a step forward and improve in terms of consistency and command, could be really good values. 

« Last Edit: December 08, 2022, 10:24:39 am by craig »

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10897 on: December 08, 2022, 10:32:12 am »
Seems to me that if Breslow and his team are able to work some magic with a bunch of talented arms, and *IF* control improves for lots of them, the Cubs could be in a way different place trades-wise.  A year from now, a lot of the good-arm pitching guys could be up in high minors, big-league ready or close, and in a position where other teams might be able to justify valuing them pretty highly in trade.  And *IF* Hoyer was to hypothetically add Senga, with Taillon, and *IF* hypothetically Stroman does not opt out, the Cubs might have a fairly full rotation moving forward.  IN other words, Hoyer might be able to trade a good, high-minors pitching prospect or two, without exhausting his stash. 

Cubs really haven't seemed to have a perceived surplus of anything since trading Soler and Gleyber.  It would be kinda weird to have a surplus of talented young pitchers, so that you could trade a couple of them to pick up a catcher or a 3B. 

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10898 on: December 08, 2022, 10:49:33 am »
The Cubs have such a long way to go to catch up offensively.  Being hopeful about 2024 is probably where we need to be.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10899 on: December 10, 2022, 07:59:43 am »
Add Kohl Franklin to the list of guys who the Cubs shortened his arm stroke.
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10900 on: December 10, 2022, 08:10:59 am »
 
Add Kohl Franklin to the list of guys who the Cubs shortened his arm stroke.

Interesting.  Am I remembering the most significant possible advantages correctly?
1.  Shorter, more compact delivery is easier to repeat consistently, resulting in improved control?  The control factor is really the driving consideration, the others are ancillary possible perks. 
2.  Shorter more compact delivery is healthier, easier on the arm.  Shoulder in particular?
3.  Shorter/quicker delivery can sometimes be a little more deceptive and harder for hitters to read? 
4.  Shorter/quicker delivery can reduce/mask differences and "tells" between fastball and offspeed delivery? 
5.  Shorter windup delivery can reduce differences between delivering from windup and stretch?  Make it easier to not lose your stuff or your groove from the stretch?  And maybe reduce base-stealing time, too? 
« Last Edit: December 10, 2022, 08:46:18 am by craig »

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10901 on: December 10, 2022, 08:29:50 am »
I’m not sure about all of that. I think the main benefit is simplifying the kinetic chain to get the arm in the correct position at foot strike. With a long arm action it takes longer to get to that part and more can go wrong from the swing to foot strike. All of what you said might be true, but it would be more about getting into the correct position more often than the actual motion of the arm. Does that kinda make sense?
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10902 on: December 10, 2022, 08:48:07 am »
Yes, totally.  I like that synopsis. 

Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10903 on: December 12, 2022, 12:07:40 pm »

Cubs Zone ™️
@CubsZone

2023 Chicago Cubs Top MLB Prospects, according to
@baseballamerica

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. Brennen Davis
3. Kevin Alcantara
4. Matt Mervis
5. Cade Horton
6. Ben Brown
7. Cristian Hernandez
8. Hayden Wesneski
9. Miguel Amaya
10. Caleb Kilian

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10904 on: December 12, 2022, 12:30:35 pm »
Interesting that BA has Mervis at #4.

BA also has different view of Mervis’ bat speed than Keith Law’s view of Mervis bat speed.

BA outing report:

Scouting Report: Mervis is a hulking lefthanded hitter with plus raw power. He previously struggled to make enough contact to get to it, but he shortened his swing and honed his approach in 2022 to focus on pitches in the middle-third of the plate, leading to his breakout year. He has excellent bat speed and natural timing, and his improved swing path and selectivity give him a chance to be an average hitter. Mervis can be a touch aggressive on soft stuff below the zone and isn't as dangerous against lefthanders, but he demolishes fastballs, has good strike-zone recognition and keeps his strikeouts low for a power hitter. He mostly pulls the ball and will benefit from the new rules banning shifts in the majors. Mervis' value is tied almost exclusively to his bat. He is a well below-average runner and a below-average--but passable--defender at first base. He has retained the plus-plus arm strength that helped him reach 96 mph as a pitcher in college.

The Future: Mervis projects to be an everyday first baseman who hits for power, a case he amplified by tying for the Arizona Fall League lead with six home runs. His big league debut should come in 2023.