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Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 413667 times)

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12135 on: October 12, 2023, 10:55:51 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on October 12, 2023, 10:28:02 pm
…..The one time he pinch hit for Tauchman vs. a lefty was a real head-scratcher.

PCA pinch-ran for Tauchman several times.  PCA never pinch-hit for Tauchman.

Curt, you may be thinking of the 13-inning game with Dbacks when PCA came in defensively for Tauchman in 6th inning with Cubs up 3-2. When PCA turn to hit came up in 8th, it was 3-3.

That was PCA’s role. Logical these moves would pertain to Tauchman because Tauchman was the CF getting replaced defensively.
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Robert L

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12136 on: October 12, 2023, 11:11:23 pm »
he only had 14 at bats a lot of people go 0-14 when called up
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Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12137 on: October 13, 2023, 12:42:09 am »
Again, the baserunning thing is a non-issue.  Just experience.  PCA is already a good base-stealer and his instincts seem on-point.  He just needs to understand situations and control his natural aggression.

The swing, that’s another matter.  There is a mechanical issue where he’s going to be very vulnerable to fastballs up - it’s a matter of his swing plane, and where the bat is as it’s passing though the zone.  I don’t think it has to be a “tear it down and rebuild from scratch” kind of thing, just adjustments.  And from what we’ve seen PCA is a smart and coachable kid, so I expect him to make them.
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davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12138 on: October 13, 2023, 10:32:50 am »
Quote from: Robert L on October 12, 2023, 11:11:23 pm
he only had 14 at bats a lot of people go 0-14 when called up

Mays and Sandberg come to mind.

And Junior Lake showed us that great starts do not necessarily equate to great careers.

But PCA's struggles shouldn't come as a great surprise to us.  He struggled for several weeks when moved up to Tennessee, and a .271 BA in Iowa is hardly domination.  Personally, I doubt that PCA begins the season in the majors, but if he does, I hope it is as a regular, rather than a 2 or 3 games per week fill in.  In the meantime, Tauchman will have to be filling the starting role unless they re-sign Bellinger.

I am much more worried about Mervis.  Unless he absolutely fails in spring training, I hope they just put him at first and leave him be for at least a couple of months.  Trading away struggling but high potential prospects is a sure way to destroy value.  You get nothing for them, and if they do hit the long shot, someone else gets the value.
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12139 on: October 13, 2023, 02:30:18 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on October 13, 2023, 12:42:09 am
...The swing, that’s another matter.  There is a mechanical issue where he’s going to be very vulnerable to fastballs up - it’s a matter of his swing plane, and where the bat is as it’s passing though the zone.  I don’t think it has to be a “tear it down and rebuild from scratch” kind of thing, just adjustments.  ...

Excellent synopsis.  Something seemed off where he was vulnerable to fastballs up.  But yeah, hopefully needs no major rebuild. 
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12140 on: October 13, 2023, 02:40:37 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on October 13, 2023, 12:42:09 am
Again, the baserunning thing is a non-issue.  Just experience.  PCA is already a good base-stealer and his instincts seem on-point.  He just needs to understand situations and control his natural aggression....

Also agree that the baserunning stuff, that should improve with experience, and that's not nearly so big a deal as the hitting.  Hoyer used the word "refine" for his baserunning, and that seems to be appropriate. 

Some PCA stolen-base notes:
*He was 76% SB efficiency on the year (39/51). 
*Big-league average 80% (2023)
*Minors average 77% (2022, I couldn't fine 2023 numbers)
*Acuna 84%, 73/14. 

At 76%, PCA is slightly below-average efficiency-wise, but he's not far below-average.  Assuming he gets a little smarter and more refined, that should improve.  And he's already close enough to average.   But while he was a volume stealer, his efficiency has been unremarkable thus far.  He does need to improve; presumably he will.

Sometimes, big-time big-league base-stealers are almost unstoppable in the minors.  That his efficiency even in the minors has been average suggests he may never be a prolific volume/efficiency guy in the majors?  He's got a world of improvement to ever become an Acuna (84%, 73/14), and thus far he's not in Hoerner's class. 

But hopefully he'll learn and improve.  In majors, they can accumulate lots of data and film on pitchers and catchers, so he may be able to become more efficient if he gets smarter and more selective about when to try.  It would be super fun, though, to get Acuna-esque.  Able to support both good efficiency while still having massive volume.   

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Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12141 on: October 13, 2023, 05:52:37 pm »
craig - Granted major league pitchers and catchers will provide a greater challenge for PCA stealing bases. But I'm not sure that PCA's poor success in the brief and intense period at the major league level is necessarily reflective of his ability. 

I think it is useful to focus on PCA's year-long success with stolen bases in the minors to get a better picture of his stolen base skill and potential.  He had 46 stolen bases in the minors in 2023, with 10 caught stealing. That is an 82% success rate.  And he had 15 SB and 2 CS at AAA (88%) and 31 SB and 8 CS at AA (79%). Might this suggest he improved his skill as the season went on?


https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=crow-a000pet
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CurtOne

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12142 on: October 13, 2023, 06:10:27 pm »
Quote from: Reb on October 12, 2023, 10:55:51 pm
PCA pinch-ran for Tauchman several times.  PCA never pinch-hit for Tauchman.

Curt, you may be thinking of the 13-inning game with Dbacks when PCA came in defensively for Tauchman in 6th inning with Cubs up 3-2. When PCA turn to hit came up in 8th, it was 3-3.

That was PCA’s role. Logical these moves would pertain to Tauchman because Tauchman was the CF getting replaced defensively.
You may be right.  I may be remembering things out of sequence; I don't have time to go back and search for the event.  Enough to say that there were too many head-scratchers with Ross to keep them all in focus.
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12143 on: October 13, 2023, 07:43:31 pm »
Quote from: Ron on October 13, 2023, 05:52:37 pm
...I think it is useful to focus on PCA's year-long success with stolen bases in the minors to get a better picture of his stolen base skill and potential.  He had 46 stolen bases in the minors in 2023, with 10 caught stealing. That is an 82% success rate.  And he had 15 SB and 2 CS at AAA (88%) and 31 SB and 8 CS at AA (79%). Might this suggest he improved his skill as the season went on?

Ron, I agree with the logic, look at the year-long minor-league numbers. 

You accidentally used his BB numbers instead of his SB numbers. 
*He was 46BB/10SB, which is where you're getting your 82%, and he was 15BB/2CS at Iowa, which is where you're getting your improving 88%. 

*That's why you're getting the higher volume numbers and the higher 82% success rate. 


IF he'd been 82%, I'd love that, that's  and above-league-average. 
But in terms of SB, he was actually 37SB/10CS.  Right around league average. 


This season, 78% in minors and 76% including Cubs attempts. 
Previous season, he was 76.5% in A-ball. 
So both seasons, in the minors he's kinda been right around league average. 

https://www.milb.com/player/pete-crow-armstrong-691718
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=crow-a000pet


Again, being average is fine, there is good reason to hope he's got space to refine his base-stealing and become variably above-average in the future. 

« Last Edit: October 13, 2023, 07:55:03 pm by craig »
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Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12144 on: October 13, 2023, 10:02:25 pm »
craig - Well, that's embarrassing. Thanks for being so gentle in pointing out my dumb mistake. Mea culpa.
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12145 on: October 16, 2023, 01:52:31 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-get-small-hundreds-of-minor-leaguers-have-shrunk/

Brennen Davis one of the guys in this interesting article, although his re-listed height seems inaccurate. 

Quote
According to all parties, MLB sent personnel to teams’ camps during 2023 spring training to officially measure minor leaguers so that they could use accurate heights to draw the vertical boundaries of the ABS zone. Previous reporting by Baseball America indicated that 27% of a player’s listed height determined the bottom of his strike zone, while 51% of that height determined the top. Recent writing from The Athletic’s Jayson Stark revealed that players and other parties believed this methodology led to a higher-than-desired strike zone, so MLB quickly changed course and recently sent teams a memo notifying them that the Hawk-Eye optical tracking technology installed at every Triple-A ballpark to facilitate ABS would now be identifying and using checkpoints on hitters’ bodies to draw the top and bottom of the zone. This began on September 5.

During reporting for this piece, I learned details about the new zone that are ancillary to my player height project but I think will be of interest to readers. Hawk-Eye is currently using the crook of the hitter’s rear knee to draw the line at the bottom of the strike zone, and, as Stark has already reported, one baseball above the belt to draw the top. Hawk-Eye is now taking a snapshot of the hitter’s body position at the moment the baseball is midway across the plate (the same location used when evaluating umpire performance) and is then utilizing a rolling average of those snapshots across the hitter’s 50 most recent plate appearances to determine the hitter’s zone.
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ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12146 on: October 18, 2023, 10:24:28 pm »
VERY small sample size (10 games, 42 ABs), but 20 year old James Triantos leads the AFL in OPS (1.393), SLG (.805), OBP (.588), AB (.488).

So far, he's hit 4 triples, 2 doubles, 1 HR and stolen 6 bases in 7 attempts; he's fanned 8 times and taken 8 walks.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12147 on: October 19, 2023, 12:46:09 am »
Guessing that Triantos might be trade bait. Seems like going to be a 2B and Cubs don’t really need one and 2B may be Shaw’s best position too.
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ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12148 on: October 19, 2023, 07:43:00 am »
Agree, Reb. Triantos is lighting it up, but Cub inventory of good young infielders/outfielders is higher than that of good young pitchers at AA/AAA/MLB levels.

And, as Joe Torre said, "I thought pitching was 70% of baseball. Then i became a manager and realized it's a whole helluva lot more important than that!"
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #12149 on: October 19, 2023, 08:02:22 am »
Law has questions about a position for him.  He apparently doesn’t look good in the infield.
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