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Just pulled up a *really* interesting stat on Caissie. For all of the absurd numbers he’s putting up, he’s going the other way almost 45%(!!!) of the time! Those gaudy slugging totals include LOTS of oppo bullets.

EDIT:

WOW. He runs a 54% fly ball rate too. This is the profile of a hitter with serious power who knows how to get to it in game.

Yeah, he's got some really good stats. 

-His .514 BABIP may not be sustainable at higher leagues, perhaps not even in the Az league. 

-His 24K/64AB/20BB rate in AZ may also not sustain in higher leagues; usually K-rates jump quite a bit from AZ to full-season, and again from minors to majors.   

The league-leading BABIP coupled with the team-leading K-rate is interesting to me.  I tend to caricature high BABIP with good-contact guys who make solid contact relatively often.  (Rod Carew, Derek Jeter...).  But that isn't my caricature of a guy who K's >1/3 of his AB.  I'd usually figure guy who is missing the ball altogether often enough to K >1/3, might be kinda getting under or over fairly often on the <2/3 of AB's when he actually does hit it so that there'd be a goodly number of soft contacts, too. 

Will be super interesting to see where he's at a year or two from now. 

Gotta be really fast to beat the swift.

When a guy walks as much as Caissie does, it’s clear that a lot of the K’s are from working deep counts. Will be interesting to get more data and learn how much true swing-and-miss there is with him (and I’m sure there’s plenty). Not trying to suggest he’s going to be a top-flight, all-star RF’er, but that combo of oppo power and FB rate is ***rare****.

For context, at the major league level, the highest oppo rate this year is 37.7%. Caissie blows that out of the water. Highest FB rate is 53.7%. Caissie is just shy of that mark. Draw a Venn diagram of top 20 mlb oppo + FB hitters? No intersection. Closest profile match at a glance are JD Martinez and Justin Turner and both of them have significantly more pull than Caissie at the moment.

It’s a small sample size, but the traits that produce these results are extremely, extremely uncommon.

pitchers off to good statistical starts.  (I think Jensen is rated below Casey due to HR9.  Obviously, Jensen is the better prospect.)

Pitcher                    Age Lev  G  IP     H  BB  SO  WHIP  K/IP  ERA   W  L Sv      HR9
          Abbott, Cory    25 AAA  11  53.1  63  27  80  1.69  1.51  7.26  1  5  0 C+  2.03
          Casey, Derek  25  A+  11  58.1  56  20  73  1.30  1.26  3.24  5  5  0 C   0.31
         Jensen, Ryan   23  A+  15  58.0  41  23  70  1.10  1.21  4.81  2  7  0 C-  1.24
         Clarke, Chris   23 T63   3  11.1  11   0  11  0.99  0.99  2.43  0  1  0 C-  0.81
          Sanders, Cam  24  AA  15  72.2  59  38  91  1.34  1.26  5.82  2  6  0 C-  1.62
     Gallardo, Richard  19  A-  15  63.2  59  19  48  1.23  0.76  4.24  2  6  0 C-  1.00
        Steele, Justin     25 AAA   9  27.1  14  13  29  0.99  1.07  1.32  2  0  0 B   0.33
              Herz, DJ      20  A-  13  48.0  25  26  76  1.06  1.58  3.56  2  4  0 B   1.12
     Estrada, Jeremiah  22  A-  11  23.0  18   6  38  1.04  1.65  1.57  1  1  0 B-  0.78
            Nahas, Joe     21  A-   9  23.1  18  10  34  1.20  1.47  2.70  2  1  0 B-  0.39
       Rodriguez, Luis   21   R   5  12.1   7   3  22  0.81  1.82  1.46  0  0  2 B-  0.74
   Salvador, Andricson  20   R   7  16.1  13   3  17  0.98  1.06  2.76  3  0  0 C-  0.00
          Leeper, Ben     24 T87  27  34.3  15  13  53  0.82  1.55  1.31  4  3  3 A-  0.52
         Correa, Danis    21  A-  17  24.0  12  11  41  0.96  1.71  1.88  2  0  1 B+  0.00
        Roberts, Ethan    23 T87  25  33.1  17   9  45  0.79  1.36  1.90  2  0  4 B   0.54
          Kobos, Scott   23 T65  13  18.2  11   8  33  1.04  1.81  0.49  2  0  3 B+  0.00

Cubs' Davis shows Smoking bat at Double-A (from MILB website)
August 6th, 2021
Sam Dykstra

After a scorching July, Brennen Davis was off to a comparatively slow start in August. The heat is back on following Friday.

The Cubs’ No. 2 prospect reached in five of his seven plate appearances and added a homer and two doubles in Double-A Tennessee’s doubleheader at Montgomery’s Riverwalk Stadium on Friday.

The right-handed slugger had started August 0-for-9 with six strikeouts through his first three games of the month before breaking that streak with a two-run double in the second inning of the Smokies’ 10-0 win in Game 1 of the twinbill. He had driven in the contest’s first run with a sacrifice fly one frame earlier and reached base again in the seventh when he was hit by a pitch.

Davis kept the power coming in the nightcap, despite a 5-3 loss to the Biscuits. His RBI double in the first inning opened the scoring for either side, and he crushed a first-pitch hanging breaking ball from Montgomery right-handed starter Jack Labosky for a solo homer to left in the fourth to give the visitors a 2-1 advantage. The long ball was his 10th of the season since joining Tennessee on June 1. He was again plunked in the sixth, allowing him to reach base for the sixth time on the day albeit in a painful way.

The No. 43 overall prospect’s cold snap to open August was never a good bet to last long. Davis was coming off a July in which he had been named Cubs Minor League Player of the Month due to his .301/.414/.675 line with seven homers and 10 doubles over 23 games. Not included in those numbers were his two dingers during the All-Star Futures Game in Denver that earned him MVP honors for the annual prospect showcase.

A 2018 second-round pick, the 21-year-old outfielder has only helped his reputation as a right-handed bat with above-average potential for both his hit and power tools this season. Friday’s performance pushed his Double-A line to .268/.383/.522 and extra-base-hit total to 26 through 52 games with the Smokies. He is one of only three players aged 21 or younger to produce a slugging percentage above .500 at the Double-A or Triple-A levels. Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) and Mark Vientos (Mets) are the other two members of that elite company.

As the Cubs turn toward the future following their latest Trade Deadline fire sale, Davis will grab more of the spotlight on his way to Wrigley, and his latest performances prove why he’s worthy of that attention.

Canario's first Cub HR.  A runway model power stroke on this guy.

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1424164404053032964?s=20

That was smoked!