Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 296382 times)


  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4156
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #10950 on: February 08, 2023, 12:42:55 pm »
Lots of stuff today from Kiley McDaniel at ESPN+ on Cubs prospects:

11th overall
4th in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)
$221 million total value
53 players

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 55 FV (36th on the Top 100)
2. Jordan Wicks, LHP, 50 FV (51)
3. Kevin Alcantara, CF, 50 FV (77)
4. Cristian Hernandez, SS, 50 FV (113)
5. Hayden Wesneski, RHP, 50 FV (116)
6. Owen Caissie, RF, 50 FV (118)
7. James Triantos, 3B, 50 FV (125)
8. Brennen Davis, CF, 45+ FV (133)
9. Alexander Canario, RF, 45+ FV (146)
10. Cade Horton, RHP, 45 FV
11. Ben Brown, RHP, 45 FV
12. Caleb Kilian, RHP, 45 FV
13. D.J. Herz, LHP, 45 FV
14. Jackson Ferris, LHP, 45 FV
15. Matt Mervis, 1B, 40+ FV
16. Moises Ballesteros, C, 40+ FV
17. Daniel Palencia, RHP, 40+ FV
18. Miguel Amaya, C, 40+ FV

40 FV (8): Kevin Made/SS, Ed Howard/SS, Christopher Paciolla/SS, Derniche Valdez/SS, Jose Escobar/SS, Nazier Mule/RHP, Drew Gray/LHP, Ryan Jensen/RHP

35+ FV (27): Tyler Schlaffer/RHP, Luis Devers/RHP, Porter Hodge/RHP, Miles Mastrobuoni/2B, Adan Sanchez/C, Yeison Santana/SS, Brailyn Marquez/LHP, Ismael Mena/CF, Pedro Ramirez/2B, Ben Leeper/RHP, Jeremiah Estrada/RHP, Kohl Franklin/RHP, Yohendrick Pinango/LF, Javier Assad/RHP, Chase Strumpf/3B, Luis Verdugo/3B, Cole Roederer/LF, Bryce Ball/1B, Zachary Leigh/RHP, Ludwig Espinoza/SS, Jefferson Rojas/2B, Pablo Aliendo/C, Danis Correa/RHP, Jordan Nwogu/LF, Christian Franklin/CF, Brandon Birdsell/RHP, Luke Little/LHP

2023 Impact: Wesneski
40+ FV breakout pick: Palencia
40 FV or less breakout pick: Made

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

Hernandez checked a lot of boxes as one of the top international signees in the 2021 class: lanky 6-2 frame with some present power and potential for more, likely stays at shortstop, potentially above-average at everything if it all clicks. His swing mechanics still need dialing in, and he's struck out 92 times in 91 professional games, all in the complex leagues, so he's a ways off still. He's ranked up here because he'll be 19 all season, and things could click at any time with the potential rosy outcome of a 25-30 homer producing shortstop.

Caissie was a high-variance, later-blooming Canadian corner outfielder in the 2020 draft that the Padres took in the second round, then included in the Yu Darvish package. He's made steady progress and is still just 20 years old, with easy plus power as the selling point and a solid approach giving him a path to get to it in games. Triantos is the opposite sort of position player, a hit-first infielder with great feel for the bat head. Everything else about his game -- pitch selection, raw power, speed, defense, arm -- are all around average. He'll probably be able to play a solid second or third base but that bat-to-ball will carry him to the big leagues.

Davis was a dynamic multisport plus athlete in the 2018 draft who also carried plenty of bust potential due to hit tool questions. He's hit much better than expected and was a top 100 prospect until an injury-marred 2022 season. Davis had back pain that required surgery in June to cauterize a cluster of blood vessels. He returned in August then went to the Arizona Fall League for reps but bowed out due to back tightness. Davis is 6-4, has plus raw power, plus speed, and plus arm strength in a power-over-hit center field profile that he can hopefully return to in 2023.

Canario was half of the return for the Giants' 2021 rental of Kris Bryant, and he has improved since coming over in the deal. He's a right fielder with plus raw power, a plus arm and a good approach for tapping into his power in games. Canario may get a big league look in 2023 and has 25-30 homer upside.

Mervis will also get a 2023 look, though he may start in Triple-A with Eric Hosmer, Patrick Wisdom and Trey Mancini manning the first base and designated hitter spots. He has plus raw power and above-average bat-to-ball skills as evidenced by a three-level breakout 2022 season. He's just OK defensively and doesn't have much margin for error with the bat, more likely becoming a good lefty platoon type. Ballesteros also has plus raw power from the left side, along with an excellent approach and decent contact skills, but still needs work behind the plate. Amaya is a good defender behind the plate with low-end everyday upside, but didn't play much in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and a foot fracture.

Wesneski (93-95 mph, above average command, two plus breaking balls) was acquired via trade from the Yankees, Brown from the Phillies (94-96, easy plus curveball, average command), Kilian (93-95, above average cutter, average curveball and command) from the Giants, and Palencia (96-100, solid average curveball, decent command given velocity and experience) from the A's while Horton (mid-90's, two plus breakers, starter feel) and Ferris (above average fastball/breaker and command from huge lefty) were the Cubs' first two picks in the 2022 draft. Herz (91-93 plays up due to shape and angle, changeup is plus, command will limit to shorter outings) is the one long-time Cub, drafted in 2019.

Others of note

Let's cover the five shortstops in the 40 FV tier. Kevin Made had a tough pro debut in 2021, but turned the corner in 2022 with a double digit walk rate and 10 homers. The selling points are his physical projection and above-average glove at short, so he's now tracking like an everyday shortstop if he can keep this up. Howard was the 16th overall pick in 2020 and showed rough pitch selection in a 2021 pro debut that improved in 2022 before he missed much of the year with a hip injury. He's a bit better defender and athlete than Made, but his offensive upside looks a bit lower now.

Paciolla is a tier below these two in terms of raw tools, as a maybe shortstop who is a below-average runner, but he can stick in the infield and he can hit. He signed for $900,000 in the third round out of a SoCal high school last summer. Valdez was the headliner of last month's international haul, signing for $2.8 million out of the Dominican Republic. Like Made and Howard, Valdez is an above-average athlete, runner and defender who projects as more of an average offensive threat, with a hit-over-power game at the moment. The lefty-hitting Escobar is a maybe shortstop that signed last February and had a loud debut in the DSL last summer, also showing average offensive upside.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2023, 12:45:11 pm by Reb »