Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324381 times)

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #90 on: August 08, 2015, 11:54:50 pm »
Yeah, BR most similar career batters to Bellhorn are Eli Marrero, Ted Lepcio, Bobby Morgan, and Luis Valbuena.

That would be a disappointment.

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #91 on: August 08, 2015, 11:57:34 pm »
Bellhorn was like Soto and Rich Wilken in that they all had one or two really good years in an otherwise mediocre career.

Dave23

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #92 on: August 09, 2015, 12:02:14 am »
If memory serves, as a Cub, he was the first player to hit a HR from both sides of the plate in the same inning...

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #93 on: August 09, 2015, 12:23:38 am »
Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.  Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that contribute at the major league level.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #94 on: August 09, 2015, 02:53:32 am »
Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.  Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that contribute at the major league level.

The most recent college OFers taken at #9 each had career rWAR over 21. Mark Kotsay and Geoff Jenkins.

That's who we should be looking at as Happ comps---not all the pitchers who got hurt, good field/no hit shortstops, etc.


CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #95 on: August 09, 2015, 07:09:33 am »
Fair enough.

20 WAR over 10 years is a league average starter. I think my comp for Happ would be Dexter Fowler, with more power and less speed. High OBP, high K and average-ish defense in CF.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #96 on: August 09, 2015, 09:13:18 am »
Tangent:  Ten years averaging league-average starter would be a good thing. 
1.  We'll struggle to find league average within our current system.
2.  Career-average-league-average is perhaps worse than it sounds, I think.  Most guys have lesser years before they retire at the end which depresses their career WAR/year average.  So to end up career-average despite the bad old years implies a group of above-average years during career prime.  Usually earlier in career while still controlled by original team and when value/$$ is favorable. 

Caveat:  I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later.  But, first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick and that he's very unlikely to be any good.   When you're whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the massive step to the majors.  19:1 K/HR doesn't project well. 

I think they just missed on the scouting this time.  I don't imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9 pick did so expecting this.  He was drafted based on proven, experienced college bat.  Not a raw projectable hitter; not a defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher who can afford 200 K's.   Hitting was supposed to be his best attribute; without that, not much to fall back on. 

I understand this goes with Blue's point.  The expectation should have been nothing, so getting nothing should be no surprise. 

Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #97 on: August 09, 2015, 09:23:13 am »
Caveat:  I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later.  But, first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick and that he's very unlikely to be any good.   When you're whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the massive step to the majors.  19:1 K/HR doesn't project well. 

I think they just missed on the scouting this time.  I don't imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9 pick did so expecting this.  He was drafted based on proven, experienced college bat.  Not a raw projectable hitter; not a defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher who can afford 200 K's.   Hitting was supposed to be his best attribute; without that, not much to fall back on. 

You sure that 57 PA is "early?"  I'd be inclined to say something more like "extraordinarily premature."   ;)

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #98 on: August 09, 2015, 11:58:33 am »
Way to early to make any judgments about Happ. 

So far college hitters and pitchers. 

Dansby Swanson- DNP concussion
Alex Bregman- .259/.368/.330 (A) .269/.296/.385 (A+)
Andrew Benintendi- .255/.379/.457 (A-)
Ian Happ- .283/.408/.491 (A-), .255/.333/.392 (A)
Kevin Newman .226/.281/.340 (A-)
Richie Martin .258/.386/.383 (A-)
DJ Stewart  .238/.308/.373  (A-)

The pitchers
Dillion Tate 2 IP
Tyler Jay 6.10 ERA/ 10.1 IP/ 6 BB/ 13 K
Carson Fulmer- 5.14 ERA/ 7 IP/ 1 BB/ 9 K

It is possible it was just a really bad draft.  In the way too early to make judgments Fulmer is having the most interesting debut.  Happ is performing like a bunch of the college hitters.  Better results, but more K's.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2015, 12:02:21 pm by CUBluejays »


Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #100 on: August 09, 2015, 06:42:36 pm »
Almora: 2-3, 2B, RBI, SB, BB, K

Contreras: 1-3, SF, 3 RBI, K

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #101 on: August 09, 2015, 06:44:40 pm »
Almora certainly appears to have been on a roll recently.  It's easy to forget that he just turned 21 in April, so maybe something is beginning to click for him.  It would be nice if this represents some sort of breakthrough on his part.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #102 on: August 09, 2015, 06:49:57 pm »
Almora certainly appears to have been on a roll recently.  It's easy to forget that he just turned 21 in April, so maybe something is beginning to click for him.  It would be nice if this represents some sort of breakthrough on his part.

If he were ready by the end of 2016, he still would be no older than most graduating college seniors.

Chris27

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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #104 on: August 09, 2015, 08:23:02 pm »
Almora must now be very much close to .700 OPS now.  Game log:  "sharp line drive" to left field, and doubled to left field. 

He's now at 25 walks in 307 AB.  Not bad at all, walks-wise.