Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324153 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #510 on: September 15, 2015, 10:15:07 pm »
Chances are good they don't, because they are rare.  I would disagree that Underwood is just a fastball, most scouting reports mention he has a chance for 3 above average pitches.  McDaniel puts the ceiling on his fastball at 65, change 60, curve 55.  The command ceiling is a 50, but that seems to be improving as well. 

Only 17 starters average above 94.  Only 7 above 95 (Eovoldi, Richards, Cole, Harvey, Carlos Martinez, Archer, deGrom) of those 7 only Richards is below 3 fWAR.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #511 on: September 15, 2015, 10:20:15 pm »
Pretty unlikely that Underwood is going to average above 94.  Cease could. 

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #512 on: September 15, 2015, 10:33:02 pm »
McDaniel rates his fastball 60/65 (present/ceiling)

60 translates to an average velocity of 93
65 translates to an average velocity of 94

bitterman

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #513 on: September 15, 2015, 11:23:15 pm »
Underwood can maintain 94

jacey1

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #514 on: September 16, 2015, 01:21:12 pm »
I dont think we have any TORP starters right now in the system. But, there is alot of good talent, one or two of which could develop into that elite starter. Lets hope some do develop into TORP

guest61

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #515 on: September 16, 2015, 01:53:15 pm »
Cease seems to me to be the best we have.

ticohans

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #516 on: September 16, 2015, 02:02:53 pm »
If you're not a top 20 prospect, you're probably not a TORP pitching prospect. Underwood is striking out fewer than 6 guys per 9, while Cease is walking 6 per 9. Sure, prospects do crazy things, but neither Underwood nor Cease deserve that designation right now.

Urias, Giolito, Berrios, Glasnow: these are TORP prospects, and both their abilities (combination of pitches and command) and results far exceed anything we've seen from Underwood or Cease to date.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #517 on: September 16, 2015, 02:30:07 pm »
I would agree that Underwood/Cease are no where close to Urias, Giolito, Berrios, Glasnow. 

I'd just like to say a mentioned TORP potential not TORP prospects.  What I meant is that if everything broke right they could end up being that good of a pitcher.  Not that there is a higher percentage chance that it will happen like the better they guys you mentioned.  Maybe it is a distinction without meaning, but in my head it matters.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #518 on: September 16, 2015, 02:54:23 pm »
If you're not a top 20 prospect, you're probably not a TORP pitching prospect. Underwood is striking out fewer than 6 guys per 9, while Cease is walking 6 per 9. Sure, prospects do crazy things.....

Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 

ticohans

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #519 on: September 16, 2015, 02:58:54 pm »
I'd just like to say a mentioned TORP potential not TORP prospects.  What I meant is that if everything broke right they could end up being that good of a pitcher.  Not that there is a higher percentage chance that it will happen like the better they guys you mentioned.  Maybe it is a distinction without meaning, but in my head it matters.

Fair enough, though I think that, at some level, the "if everything breaks right" designation kind of applies to all pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP and all that. So I guess I kind of view it as applying an "everything breaks right" on top of an "everything breaks right," which feels like too much of a longshot to weigh heavily.

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #520 on: September 16, 2015, 03:08:34 pm »
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 

The big difference was that even when Wood was putting up those numbers, the scouts were saying that he had a "once in a decade" arm.

A 98 MPH fastball is wonderful, and I am glad Cease has it.  But there is still a big difference between Wood with a 98 MPH fastball and Cease with a 98 MPH fastball, and it seems that it is something that scouts can see, even beyond the lack of command that both have had in the minors.  Movement on the fastball is probably one difference, and more important is probably secondary pitches.  Wood had an incredible breaking pitch already in high school.  Cease has a breaking pitch, but almost never used it in high school, and seldom as a professional, although this might be deliberate, due to his surgery.  Cease is said to have a pretty good change up for someone that raw, but again, seldom uses it in a game.

I really like Cease, and am glad the Cubs have him, but until the scouts start raving about him, or he starts having success at the AA level or higher, I have a hard time thinking of him as having TOR level potential.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #521 on: September 16, 2015, 03:31:24 pm »
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy. 

Well, Wood struck out 11.0 per 9 innings at the highest level of minors that season. 

Ks are the thing for prospects, if you want one thing. Yeah, there are exceptions here and there.  But, the starting point.  Mentioned this earlier in season about Underwood and his modest Ks and some argued he's working on other stuff--fastball command--so not to worry about modest Ks. Fine, but the modest Ks probably say something about his TORP projection going forward.  When his Ks go up, then TORP discussion stuff is more credible about him. That's what I am watching about him for next season. 

Nobody is going to say Tseng is TORP prospect but his increase in Ks late in season is really good sign.  That's what you want to see with any prospect.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #522 on: September 16, 2015, 05:13:01 pm »
Not disagreeing at all with your thought, I agree.  But one of my favorite "crazy things" TORP was Kerry Wood. 
1997:  131BB/152IP
7.8BB/9. 

One year later, ace of the big-league staff and totally a TORP guy.

I loved Kerry Wood as a rookie.  As exciting a player as the Cubs had then, who simply reeked with potential, while still already performing very well.  My my dad to see him pitch a game in August when the Cubs won and Sosa also hit a HR.  Great day.

But Wood was NOT a TORP guy in 1998.  True enough that he was so much better than the rest of the dreck pitching for the Cubs that year (Traschel was next best, with an ERA+ below the league average) that we tended to think of him as an ace, but he wasn't. 

First he was a rookie, next he only threw 166 innings and was shut down for a month, and then there is the fact that his ERA+ of 129 didn't even put him in the top ten in the NL that season.  The Brave had a TEAM ERA better than Wood's.  Maddux, Leiter, Glavine, Brown, and Smoltz certainly were aces that year, with ERA+ figures ranging from 187 for Maddux down to 144 for Smoltz, but Wood was not durable enough, had not yet established a performance track record, and then simply did not perform enough better than the league average to qualify as an ace, unless you set the bar fairly low.   Being an exciting pitcher does not make someone an ace.

Ks are the thing for prospects, if you want one thing. Yeah, there are exceptions here and there.

Maddux never struck out more than 6.5 an inning in any minor league season when he pitched as many as 30 innings in the minors.

guest61

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #523 on: September 16, 2015, 05:16:13 pm »
I loved Woody's potential early in his career but it became clear very early on that he was far too fragile to be a workhorse #1.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #524 on: September 16, 2015, 05:21:43 pm »
I loved Woody's potential early in his career but it became clear very early on that he was far too fragile to be a workhorse #1.

Yes.... like before the first season ended.