Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324139 times)

goblue007

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #540 on: September 19, 2015, 03:26:43 pm »
I thought Happ did fine save low BABIP. High walks, high K hit for some power, stole bases. Feel good about him.

Ray

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #541 on: September 19, 2015, 04:41:01 pm »
Yeah, I'm happy with happ for most part.  His year equates to 18 hrs per 600 ab's for a likely 2b with lots of Xbase hits.   Low BABIP after promotion hurt overall numbers a bit.  That should be abberation with style of hitter he is.  If he shows chance to stick at second in instructs, I think he is a top 5 guy in our system.  We've probably been spoiled a bit with bryant and schwarber last 2 years

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #542 on: September 19, 2015, 05:01:57 pm »
You are simply deferring to someone else's assessment.

Of course I am deferring (or more accurately, including) someone else's assessment.  None of us see very many prospects actually play in games, and rating a prospect on stats alone would be idiotic.

chgojhawk

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #543 on: September 19, 2015, 05:12:44 pm »
I'm rooting for all of our prospects, but at this time I am hard pressed to see where any of them will fit in for the Cubs at the major league level.  The possible exception is Contreras and pitching.

With the youth and talent on the MLB roster most of the current system will have a hard time displacing someone.  Tradebait, depth and coverage for injuries is what I see out of our system.

Name some players that you guys think will eventually start for the Cubs?  No doubt there will be some, but I believe it is difficult to accurately target those prospects.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #544 on: September 19, 2015, 05:25:20 pm »
I thought Happ did fine save low BABIP. High walks, high K hit for some power, stole bases. Feel good about him.

145 AB in the Midwest League.  35 hits, 5 of which were HR, for 30 hits on balls in play.  After subtracting the 5 HR from his AB, since those were not balls in play, and then subtracting his 39 K's, since those were not balls in play, he had 101 AB when balls were put in play, giving him a BABIP of only slightly less than .300 (30 for 101).  In the Northwest League he had 26 hits on balls in play and 74 AB where the ball ended up in play, giving him a BABIP of something better than .333 (26 of 74).  I don't know what his problems were, but it was not a low BABIP that caused his weak performance.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2015, 05:28:42 pm by Jes Beard »

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #545 on: September 19, 2015, 05:45:13 pm »
I would certainly agree that if Happ does not improve his production as he gains experience, he will never see the big leagues.

goblue007

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #546 on: September 19, 2015, 06:41:13 pm »
Well color me wrong re: Happ BABIP. I took some NSBB poster's post as gospel. In any case, I'd be shocked if he wasn't top 5 in most lists.

Ray

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #547 on: September 19, 2015, 06:57:32 pm »
fangraphs has his babip there at .288.  not gonna recalculate jes's to see who is wrong there, but i tend to trust fangraphs.  I think an easy thing to miss when looking at babip, is comparing a prospects babip to what is expected in the majors rather than minors.  In the minors, good hitters are usually more .340 to .350(admittedly, i'm pulling numbers out of thin air there, either way it's higher than the .300 at the major league level).  If happ had matched his .347 he had at first stop, for example, he would have had a little less than a .300 average in the midwest league. 

The question is, which hitter does one think he is?  Of course, if you don't think he's a major league caliber hitter, then believe in the .288 figure.  I think he will be a major league caliber hitter so I believe in the first number.  He seems to have a good eye and solid power.  A little swing and miss seems to be his main negative, but hopefully it won't be too harmful.  I also trust the cubs current organization and scouting department.  That gives me a little more faith in the first number.

goblue007

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #548 on: September 19, 2015, 07:07:31 pm »
Word

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #549 on: September 19, 2015, 07:35:40 pm »
I would certainly agree that if Happ does not improve his production as he gains experience, he will never see the big leagues.

It is entirely possible that I am evaluating him unfairly (though I doubt he will particularly care.)  It is not at all possible that a flukishly low BABIP resulted in his modest BA.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #550 on: September 19, 2015, 08:50:42 pm »
Jes isn't including they 3 SF Happ had. His BABIP was .288. We'll also leave out that BABIP doesn't stabilize (or be less likely due to bad/good luck) until 820 balls in play.

Ray

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #551 on: September 19, 2015, 09:21:46 pm »
how is it not at all possible that a flukishly low babip resulted in a modest babip?  Flukes happen all the time in baseball.  The only way you can be sure of that is by saying that, with a doubt, the guy doesn't have the talent to hit that well.  There is no way possible you can know that.

Or, am I somehow misunderstanding you?

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #552 on: September 19, 2015, 09:32:49 pm »
Jes isn't including they 3 SF Happ had. His BABIP was .288. We'll also leave out that BABIP doesn't stabilize (or be less likely due to bad/good luck) until 820 balls in play.

And even when that adjustment is made, it is not enough below average to explain his disappointing results.

how is it not at all possible that a flukishly low babip resulted in a modest babip?  Flukes happen all the time in baseball.  The only way you can be sure of that is by saying that, with a doubt, the guy doesn't have the talent to hit that well.  There is no way possible you can know that.

Or, am I somehow misunderstanding you?

A BABIP roughly at average is not flukishly low.  His was pretty close to average.

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #553 on: September 19, 2015, 10:39:53 pm »
Happ had a decent month of August at South Bend (OPS over .800), then faded in September.  First season of professional ball.  I don't think there are any red flags yet. 

Ray

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #554 on: September 19, 2015, 10:58:53 pm »
And even when that adjustment is made, it is not enough below average to explain his disappointing results.

A BABIP roughly at average is not flukishly low.  His was pretty close to average.


Minor league babip's are a bit higher than the .300 major league average. Look at batting line for any legit hitting prospect.  I'm sure you'll find some exceptions but most are going to be midish .300's or close on average.

Someone out there may know exact number, I'm just guessing.