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Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 329302 times)

Cubsin

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #555 on: September 20, 2015, 02:32:35 am »
Quote from: chgojhawk on September 19, 2015, 05:12:44 pm

Name some players that you guys think will eventually start for the Cubs?  No doubt there will be some, but I believe it is difficult to accurately target those prospects.

I expect Contreras will spend 2016 in Iowa, share catching duties with Montero and possibly Schwarber in 2017, and be our primary catcher thereafter.

I think Almora, Torres, Jimenez and Candelario will become major league regulars in time. Whether they're trade bait or replace more expensive veterans when they're ready is unknown. McKinney, Zagunis and Young look like part-time players to me.
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ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #556 on: September 20, 2015, 07:50:13 am »
Whether McKinney or Zagunis become starters, it's really GREAT to have guys coming up who will provide excellent plate discipline and VERY tough ABs!

The organizational philosophy is paying off now and will make us even stronger down the road.
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ben

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #557 on: September 20, 2015, 07:55:17 am »
Amazing to me that on Sept 20 we have the 3rd best record in baseball and only 1 game back of the 2nd best! 

Whether or not he wins it, Joe M. deserves Manager of the Year.  Theo deserves Executive of the Year (for the tremendous body of work since he took over).


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davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #558 on: September 20, 2015, 10:41:47 am »
MLB rosters change, through injuries or failure.  The trick is to have players that can come up and fill in well as these things happen.

That is the greatest value of a farm system like the Cardinals.  No one thought that Carpenter, Adams, Craig, Wong or many others could fill in adequately for Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainright, etc, and it didn't seem likely that they could force their way into the team, let alone the starting lineup.  But as things changed at the MLB level, there were prospects that could step up into the opportunity created.
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davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #559 on: September 20, 2015, 10:49:20 am »
I see very little disappointing about the year that Happ has had.  If he were the second overall pick, I would be concerned.  If he were the fourth overall pick, I would be disappointed.  But the ninth pick in a weak draft isn't likely to produce a Bryant or Schwarber.

His home run rate over 162 games would give him over 20.

His OPS was over .800

His strikeout rate was not much over 20 percent.

He stole 10 bases in 11 attempts.

He played a premium position and will be tried at another premium position this winter.

Overall, he had a reasonable first year.  He isn't going to be Bryant or Schwarber.  But that is why he lasted to the ninth pick in a weak draft.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #560 on: September 20, 2015, 02:37:09 pm »
Draft was weak at the top. By #9, Happ would fit in nicely in that general range, 8-12, in most any draft. As I posted then, last two college OF bats drafted at #9 were Geoff jenkins and Mark Kotsay. So, we should have significant expectations for Happ.

I posted about Happ when saw him at the Cape a year ago. Liked his bat then and fun that he's in Cubs system now. He played mostly OF last season in college.

Expected him to do better in slow-A than he did. Advanced college hitter should do better than Happ performed at that level.

Don't really care that did better in short season. Can throw those stats in trash.

Played mostly corner OF at A ball, not a premium position. Fine for Cubs to give him a look at 2B. They should do that. But, the guy is a bat, probably ends up in a corner, and will have to hit a lot to have a good career. Yeah, top 10 in system of course but hoping for more in 2016 from him. Too many Ks in college and too many in A ball, so has something to prove.
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Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #561 on: September 20, 2015, 02:48:45 pm »
Quote from: Reb on September 20, 2015, 02:37:09 pm
Draft was weak at the top. By #9, Happ would fit in nicely in that general range, 8-12, in most any draft. As I posted then, last two college OF bats drafted at #9 were Geoff jenkins and Mark Kotsay. So, we should have significant expectations for Happ.

I posted about Happ when saw him at the Cape a year ago. Liked his bat then and fun that he's in Cubs system now. He played mostly OF last season in college.

Expected him to do better in slow-A than he did. Advanced college hitter should do better than Happ performed at that level.

Don't really care that did better in short season. Can throw those stats in trash.

Played mostly corner OF at A ball, not a premium position. Fine for Cubs to give him a look at 2B. They should do that. But, the guy is a bat, probably ends up in a corner, and will have to hit a lot to have a good career. Yeah, top 10 in system of course but hoping for more in 2016 from him. Too many Ks in college and too many in A ball, so has something to prove.

It's a good thing you don't think much of his poor performance in the NW league... since he did much better there than in the higher level Midwest league.  I agree that he is a bat first prospect... and his bat just did not play well.  I share everyone's hope that he turns that around in 2016, and of course everyone can put together their rankings based on whatever metrics they like, but my own metric is heavy on performance and relative age, which is why despite his draft position, I don't include him in the top 20 at this time.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #562 on: September 20, 2015, 09:04:08 pm »
Happ wouldn't have been a top 10 pick last year. In a decent draft he would likely be mid-teens.

I find little to get worked up about how he performed this year.

As far as the whole comparing him to Kotsay and Jenkins, I don't buy that at all. Jenkins draft (Kerry Wood year) was light years ahead of this draft. Kotsay out produced every player drafted ahead of him. Including #8 pick, Chad Green a college OF who never made the majors. Hitters at #9 have not faired well. College hitters drafted at #9 besides Kotsat and Jenkins (including Mark Smith a college OF from 1991) have failed to produce 1 player with a positive WAR. Expecting to get a 20 WAR player in a weak draft at #9 is going to lead to disappointment.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #563 on: September 20, 2015, 09:23:55 pm »
Your going back to 1991 to find a college OFer who was a bust at #9? That's convincing.

As I said, last three OFers taken at #9 are Jenkins, Kotsay, and Happ.

You have no clue where Happ would likely be drafted in a "decent year. nor do I. I guessed 8-12 in a typical year and your guess is just as much guesswork as mine. How many players have you scouted on the road?

This draft was weak at very top, said the guys who project this stuff. Typical after that. Not  "expecting" any WAR in particular. Just a guy with an upside bat.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2015, 10:42:45 pm by Reb »
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #564 on: September 20, 2015, 11:17:39 pm »
Well you your going back to 1995 and 1996 to make your point, so 1991 isn't that much of a stretch.  I see you did ignore the college OF taken at #8 ahead of Kotsay in 1996 that never made the majors.

The upcoming draft has 7 elite guys.  Happ doesn't slot in right behind them or in that next tier. Callis said he'd take Nola, the seventh pick in 2014 first in this draft.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #565 on: September 21, 2015, 02:15:46 am »
As I said, top of 2015,draft weak--rest typical. Brought in Jenkins and Kotsay because they are most recent.

College OFers taken in top dozen or so have best track records as a group. Not a revelation that some bust. Is that even worth mentioning?  Kind of obvious some will bust.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #566 on: September 21, 2015, 09:42:57 am »
When the top of the draft is weak it pulls everybody else up.  5-10 were not typical 5-10 picks.

So from the 6-12 picks all time college OF have been picked 23 times excluding recent picks like Happ and Springer.  I did count Michael Choice as a bust as he has been DFA'd.

6 have produced > 20 rWAR.  Your baseline for what Happ should be happens 26% of the time.  If you drop it down to 10 rWAR which gets you roughly Drew Stubbs production you still may not get above 50%.

My orginal point is that the Cubs will be very lucky if Happ makes the majors and contributes.  I think that still stands.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #567 on: September 21, 2015, 12:17:03 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on September 21, 2015, 09:42:57 am
When the top of the draft is weak it pulls everybody else up.  5-10 were not typical 5-10 picks.

So from the 6-12 picks all time college OF have been picked 23 times excluding recent picks like Happ and Springer.  I did count Michael Choice as a bust as he has been DFA'd.

6 have produced > 20 rWAR.  Your baseline for what Happ should be happens 26% of the time.  If you drop it down to 10 rWAR which gets you roughly Drew Stubbs production you still may not get above 50%.

My orginal point is that the Cubs will be very lucky if Happ makes the majors and contributes.  I think that still stands.

No, doesn't work that way. You can't invent extra guys who don't exist and then assume everybody else exists interchangeably. Each draft a bit different. If no elite 3 or 4 guys, doesn't follow that guys at 8-12 are weaker. Just means that top 3-4 are weaker. "Typical "5-7" guys might not exist that year and #9 is typical. Wrong to assume everything is stable except very top guys. It's fluid.

Belaboring the obvious that many are washouts. While very likely that Happ "makes the majors" we don't know lecel of production. Another truism.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #568 on: September 21, 2015, 01:16:39 pm »
Yes it does in this last draft compared to 2014.


The 2014 draft had 65 FV going early.  60 FV going 4-7.  Then a string of 55 FV guys.

The 2015 draft had a 60 FV guy, then 55 FV guys.  The top 55FV guys were going 2,3...  when they would have gone 8,9,10 in other drafts.  Everybody gets pulled up.  It still doesn't matter, because even in a good draft the #9 guy is a crap shoot.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #569 on: September 21, 2015, 01:34:22 pm »
A two-year sample size. Draft goes back 50 years. In any case, you're citing one guy, McDaniel, while there are 30 clubs with differing evaluations. It's just a pointless exercise.

And would not lump every club into one bag. Some clubs draft better than others.

As to Happ, really a question whether he will be a utility type guy such as Denorfia or an impact type regular. Very little chance he's a total washout. Not talking SS type who might not hit at all or HS guy who might wash out in A ball. Happ will hit some. Could turn out to be a bad pick but you'll see him in majors.

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