Very unlikely. The 2010 and 2011 drafts were considered strong drafts at the time. 2011 I would have a hard time seeing him go before 17 and I could see an argument that he wouldn't go before 31. 2010 I would hope the Cubs would have taken him over Simpson, but if not it might have been closer to Zach Cox at 25.
There will be good players to come out of this draft and hopefully Happ will be one of them.
Think you are exaggerating.
You mentioned 2011 draft. Very good draft at the top 8 or 9. Guys from Baez down--clubs were all over the place in their evaluations.
Baez was a favorite of Tim Wilken. Theo has said that the Red Sox--picking #19--weren't high on Baez and Theo has given Wilken credit for Baez, given that Red Sox brass were not that interested. (Maybe it's even why Wilken was retained, at least in part). Lots of clubs didn't like Baez' makeup and his HS team was a baseball factory that traveled around Florida. Stock rose late as draft approached but Wilken was in on him early. In short, clubs were all over the place on Baez. No doubt in my mind that if Red Sox were picking #9 that year, they would have ranked the 2015 Happ ahead of Baez.
#10 was Corey Spangenberg, a JUCO guy. Big surprise that he was taken this high. Pegged at bottom third of the round, pre-draft. Underslot guy. No way most clubs would rank Spangenberg ahead of 2015 Happ.
#11 was George Springer. I saw Springer play at the Cape in 2009 (don't think he was there in 2010). Very, very raw. Scouts loved his upside. Weird setup and mechanics. Had a disappointing year at UConn in 2011, a bad start to season, and came on very strong late. This is always confusing to evaluators. Moved up boards because got hot late. Upside guy. Think some clubs would have preferred steadier 2015 Happ over Springer. Most would take Springer because of upside, granted, but depends on who picks at #11. If you stirred the clubs order in a different way, some would have taken Happ over Springer because of the Springer risk. A minority, but some.
Springer and Mikie Mahtook were the only college OFers in first round. So, lot of apples and oranges to compare here, if we insert 2015 Happ.
2010 had three top guys and then a huge dropoff. Chris Colon at #4 was a college SS projected by many as a 2B in big leagues. See BA comments at time. That should tell you something right there, as pure 2B rarely go top 10. As an OFer, Colon never would have gone this high. Two of the top 10 draftees didn't even sign. Very weak draft in college OFers. Michael Choice at #10 did not have as distinguished a college career as Happ. An upside guy. He failed, as it turned out.
You have a bit of a problem talking in absolutes when an issue like this is way more convoluted than you seem to grasp. Some clubs really like steady college position player performers who clearly project as future major leaguers. Guys like Springer and Choice could have been a big flop...Springer doing fine now but he was a risk to some clubs. Baez ditto--definitely not a Theo type guy at draft time. Hey, Baez still might turn out to be a flop but, in any case, not a Theo draft type guy because of makeup concerns at the time. We know that Happ is a Theo type guy, by definition.
It's complicated and you kind of like to put things in neat boxes, no? Embrace the ambiguity.