Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324156 times)

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #615 on: September 28, 2015, 07:39:38 pm »
Nonetheless, it might be a good idea

Best line in a while.

Playtwo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8787
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #616 on: September 28, 2015, 07:43:07 pm »
Damning with faint praise.

Reb

  • Guest
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #617 on: September 29, 2015, 05:18:25 pm »
Happ and Jimenez rank #2 and #3 in Northwest League top prospects, per BA.

2. Ian Happ, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Cincinnati, 2015 (1). Video

The Cubs had such success drafting a polished college bat in the first round in 2014 (Kyle Schwarber) that they did it again in 2015. So far, so good, though Happ probably will not find himself at Wrigley Field next season.

Happ’s best position—like Schwarber—is the batter’s box. The Cubs played him in center field exclusively at Eugene, and he moved around the outfield following a promotion to low Class A South Bend on July 25. He will head back to his primary college position of second base for instructional league.

He has a fringe-average arm and needs significant footwork improvement to stick in the dirt. His bat will play, though. Happ has excellent bat speed from both sides of the plate and projects as a plus hitter with average power. He has above-average speed underway and stole 10 bases without being caught.

“When guys can come to the plate and make 95-96 (mph) look slow, you know he’s going to be a hitter,” one NWL manager said.

3. Eloy Jimenez, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 205. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013. Video

The Cubs invested $2.8 million to sign Jimenez in 2013. After a rough go in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2014, he began showing some of the promise the Cubs saw two years ago.

Jimenez is a strong, physical righthanded batter with plus raw power. He can hit the ball out to all fields and shows tremendous opposite-field pop. He has a long swing, but his level bat path keeps the barrel in the zone a long time. He has holes in his swing, but he maintains a good approach and makes a ton of contact. He has average to tick above-average speed underway with a tick above-average arm as well. With experience, he should be at least an average defender in right field.

“Big bonus. Big tools,” one scout said. “He’s got a long ways to go, but he’s aggressive and has some power. He hasn’t quite taken another step (forward), but that’s a solid year in an aggressive assignment.”

Reb

  • Guest
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #618 on: September 29, 2015, 05:22:27 pm »
Five more Cubs in second ten of Northwest League top prospects, per BA.

11. Donnie Dewees, of, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 180. Drafted: North Florida, 2015 (2).

Also a soccer and football player in high school, Dewees is athletic but was unheralded in baseball before his arrival at North Florida. He led NCAA Division I in hits, runs, slugging and total bases in the spring, then grinded his way through a solid pro debut as a Cubs second-rounder.

Dewees has a compact lefthanded swing, good contact skills and a feel for the barrel, with excellent bat control. While he can drive the ball the other way, he projects to have below-average power.

Dewees is a plus runner whose times to first base border on double-plus, and one scout timed him at 3.94 seconds on a bunt. His speed helps him go get the ball in center field as well. He’s an average defender whose well below-average arm strength—combined with a lack of power—would present a challenge if moved out of center field.

12. Justin Steele, lhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 195. Drafted: HS—Lucedale, Miss., 2014 (5).

One of the prep pitchers the Cubs popped in the 2014 draft, Steele signed for $1 million as a fifth-round pick to pass on Southern Mississippi. Like Eugene teammate Carson Sands, Steele is a lefthander with a projectable frame and plus velocity.

Steele’s fastball topped out at 95 mph this season. The lefthander attacks the strike zone, generating nearly a strikeout per inning and plenty of groundballs. Steele has competitive fire and athleticism and works downhill with the fastball and also a curveball that projects as a future plus weapon. He commands his fastball well, keeping it low in the zone and has yet to allow a home run as a pro.

“It’s tough to know how hard a guy is throwing,” one NWL manager said, “but I know hitters are having a hard time against him.”

13. Carson Sands, lhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 205. Drafted: HS—Tallahassee, Fla., 2014 (4). Video

Sands signed for $1.1 million as part of the Cubs’ prep pitching haul in the 2014 draft, a haul that also included Eugene teammate Justin Steele.

Like Hillsboro’s Cody Reed, Sands is another of the NWL’s big-bodied lefthanders with above-average velocity. Sands gets good downhill plane on a fastball that reached 95 mph this season, and he showed solid fastball command and good armside action.

Sands struggles to control his curveball, which flashed plus but had inconsistent shape. His changeup flashes average. If he can refine his control and harness his curveball, Sands has the makings of a mid-rotation starter and has plenty of room to fill out his body.

16. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 200. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012.

De la Cruz signed with the Cubs for just $85,000 as a 17-year-old in October 2012. He made giant strides in 2015 in extended spring training, earning a jump to the NWL following two years in the Dominican Summer League.

De la Cruz didn’t just hold his own at Eugene. He ranked second in the NWL with 73 strikeouts and tied for first with a 1.00 WHIP. The projectable de la Cruz appears to stand at least one inch taller than his listed 6-foot-4 height, giving him great natural plane. De la Cruz has room to grow, though he’s already fairly strong, and as he does, his velocity should eclipse its current 92-93 mph range, which is where he sits.

De la Cruz’s secondary offerings are still in development. Of those, his curveball shows the most promise and flashed plus in the second half of the season. He has feel for his changeup, but it has been inconsistent. His delivery is clean and repeatable, thanks to athleticism he possesses.

19. Pedro Araujo, rhp, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-3. Wt: 214. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011.

The Cubs signed Araujo, a Dominican righthander, for $100,000 in 2011, but he still has yet to reach full-season ball in five pro seasons—but he has potential. He has a physical, 6-foot-3 frame, a short stride and a low-90s fastball that he throws to set up a solid curveball and a changeup.

Araujo throws a high percentage of strikes and had a nearly 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the NWL. Thanks to a heavy fastball that is difficult to elevate, he can both miss bats and keep the ball in the park. However, Araujo been used strictly as a reliever since debuting in the U.S. in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2014 following three years in the Dominican Summer League.


Reb

  • Guest
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #619 on: September 29, 2015, 05:29:43 pm »
From BA chat about Northwest League top prospects.

Roy (Indiana): Can Ian Happ play second? Does this improve his chances of reaching the major leagues sooner?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: That is unclear. The Cubs are trying him there in instructs and it certainly helps his profile if he can stick in the dirt, as they say. His bat is the carrying tool, much like Kyle Schwarber. He doesn’t have Schwarber’s power, but the hit tool might be better, and he’s athletic enough to play center field.

Justin (MEmphis): I was surprised to see Happ listed above Eloy Jimenez. Does Happ have the ceiling Jimenez does or is he just more likely to reach it?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Great question. It’s the latter. I think Eloy has more tools, but the success the Cubs had in projecting Schwarber has tilted me in favor of Happ as far as selecting to place Happ above Jimenez here. Just so much projection left on Jimenez.

David Askew (Ohio): Oscar De La Cruz put up nice numbers and seemed like a high riser in t he Cubs system - is he one of their most talented pitchers?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: The Cubs had a very, very good staff at Eugene; Justin Steele, Carson Sands, Adbert Alzolay, Pedro Araujo, Kyle Twomey and de la Cruz. The context being, there are many pitchers who rate as intriguing in that organization right now.

tom (Boise): Steele project to better than a #5? Also, E.Jimenez have as much upside as Soler? Thanks

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I think it’s difficult to say Jimenez has as much upside as Soler, given what Soler’s done in his brief career. Have you seen that guy play? But Jimenez has an array of exciting tools; I think it’s fair to say Steele could be a No. 3; batters have trouble lifting his pitches, he pitches assertively but in control and can push the fastball to 95. He needs to develop a changeup.

nb (Philly): Hey Vince - Do you think Eloy Jimenez is ready for a promotion to the MWL next year? I know he's still very young, but what do you see as his floor and ceiling? Thanks!

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’ll say probably; It’s difficult to project what an organization believes a particular player needs in terms of experience or at-bats prior to a promotion. The ceiling is high; he’s got loud tools and is already showing an advanced approach; his strikeout percentage and walk rate portend promising future numbers. A lot can happen from short-season to full-season leagues, however.

Roy (Indiana): Lots of Eugene players on this list. Any thoughts on a couple who didn't make it, Matt Rose & Kyle Twomey?

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Neither player played enough to qualify. Rose has a long swing, but has a disciplined approach; Twomey isn’t overpowering but has good life and clean arm action

Chris27

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18092
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #620 on: September 29, 2015, 07:28:07 pm »
Strange to me how Happ's supposedly a better hitter than Schwarber. Nothing about their early results bears that out at all. From watching some highlights my conclusion would be that Happ has more power, particularly from the left side, than this list is suggesting but has more flaws as a hitter than Schwarber.

davep

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15849
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #621 on: September 29, 2015, 09:07:45 pm »
I don't think that anyone is saying that Happ will be a better hitter than Schwarber.  What I got out of it is that because the Cubs scouts were so good at "discovering" Schwarber that he will give them the benefit of the doubt when they selected Happ.

Chris27

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18092
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #622 on: September 29, 2015, 09:12:04 pm »
I don't think that anyone is saying that Happ will be a better hitter than Schwarber.  What I got out of it is that because the Cubs scouts were so good at "discovering" Schwarber that he will give them the benefit of the doubt when they selected Happ.

Lara-Cinisomo specifically says Happ's "hit-tool" might be better than Schwarber's, and I don't see how anyone can make that claim. Nor do I see how Happ can been seen at the moment as a plus hitter with average power. Watching him, I think he has more than average power but trouble hitting.

davep

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15849
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #623 on: September 29, 2015, 09:18:33 pm »
Sorry.  I was looking at the wrong paragraph.

It seems quite certain that he doesn't come to that conclusion because of current stats.  And I am not sure what scouts look at when they evaluate the hit tool.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17345
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #624 on: September 29, 2015, 10:34:35 pm »
From Kiley McDaniel's 6 part series on the hit tool.

If you’re scouting a big hitting tools guy with mediocre numbers but when you’re watching him, you see things that indicate he’s better than the numbers and developing some feel, the numbers aren’t very useful. If you’re scouting a smaller guy that’s short on tools but you see him squaring the ball up a lot, the numbers can help tell you how long of a track record he has of doing this in the games you didn’t see. If he’s only ever hit .300 in multiple years of pro ball, this makes it more likely he can keep doing this than if he just showed up to Low-A and you have no legitimate statistical history to look at.

Anything more than this sort of supplemental role for minor league stats is misguided. From working with some of the best analytical minds when I was on the team side and from talking to friends in the game that do that sort of work now, there are two ways clubs pinpoint players they want to acquire as undervalued assets.

1) What I’m describing above: some combination of “our scouts really like this player” and “the freely available numbers give us even more confidence than that singular report would.”

2) Using information that isn’t or usually isn’t in the public realm, be it scout-specific knowledge of injuries or mechanical troubles (often via the area scout that knew the player as an amateur, or a particularly well-connected pro scout) or via numbers (Hit f/x, Trackman and other similar things) that are proprietary in the minor leagues.

You can look at the stats for your team’s prospects and pick out guys you like more than the publications, but that’s not even half of what you need, even if you’re looking at stats from Triple-A.

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13097
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #625 on: September 29, 2015, 10:46:17 pm »
Chris, I had the same questions on guy's Happ writeup. 
*I wonder if he isn't perhaps underselling Happ's power?  He hit quite a few HR's in college, and hit quite a few HR's at both pro levels this summer.   Some of the game-videos showing some reasonably long HR's.  HR power might be better than guy is giving him credit for. 
*I wonder about the positive eval of the hit tool.  Yes, I get this is scouts, not stats.  Happ got scouted pre-draft as having a good hit tool, and again gets scouts as having a good hit tool here (including making 95 look slow).   Yet, he's struck out a lot in three college seasons and now at two pro levels.  I wonder why he strikes out so much if he's got such a good hit tool?  Shouldn't a guy with a notably good hit tool be, like, notably good at hitting the ball rather than swinging and missing? 
*If he has contact challenges, despite making 95-96 look slow, the logical conclusion would suggest problems with breaking stuff. 
*Curious that the author is giving Happ the higher ranking based on Schwarber's success.  Two completely different individuals.
*A reality for a hit-first guy:  you better hit! 

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17345
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #626 on: September 29, 2015, 10:51:01 pm »
I would think it would be tough to put Happ's hit tool above Schwarber's.  Happ's BA was down to a relatively low minor league BABIP for a top prospect.  He just might need more than a 1/2 season to make a judgement on him.

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #627 on: September 29, 2015, 10:54:26 pm »
Shouldn't a guy with a notably good hit tool be, like, notably good at hitting the ball rather than swinging and missing?

Nah....
the numbers aren’t very useful.

Minor league stats only have "a supplemental role" in evaluating prospects and "(a)nything more than th(at)... is misguided," unless, of course, you are using them to come up with the incredibly valuable and accurate PECOTA projections, and then the minor league stats are gospel.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17345
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #628 on: September 29, 2015, 11:01:01 pm »
Nah....
Minor league stats only have "a supplemental role" in evaluating prospects and "(a)nything more than th(at)... is misguided," unless, of course, you are using them to come up with the incredibly valuable and accurate PECOTA projections, and then the minor league stats are gospel.

Take it up with the guy who wrote it and has worked for multiple baseball teams, Kiley McDaniel.  I'm not sure projecting anything off of 165 PA is going to be useful, but I'm sure in your head I've made that argument before.

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: On The Farm
« Reply #629 on: September 29, 2015, 11:37:12 pm »
Take it up with the guy who wrote it and has worked for multiple baseball teams, Kiley McDaniel.  I'm not sure projecting anything off of 165 PA is going to be useful, but I'm sure in your head I've made that argument before.

I was responding to the idea, whether it is your idea or not is irrelevant.