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Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 328810 times)

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #645 on: October 06, 2015, 08:39:49 pm »
Quote from: Reb on October 02, 2015, 02:02:57 am
Southern League-
4. Schwarber ("evaluators who saw Schwarber catch in the SL gave him little chance to play the position regularly in the majors").
11. Contreras
19.  Almora

Interesting that Schwarber is only 4th, given how he dominated that league (16 HR in 75 games, 1.000+ OPS).  Probably speaks to the quality/depth of that league.  Contreras being 11th, if there are only 6 guys between him and Schwarber, that's not too bad.  I'm pleasantly surprised that they liked Almora to include him in the top-20.  Mid-July, I'd not have imagined that was even remotely likely. 

Pierce Johnson and McKinney are the other two possibilities that got left off. 
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #646 on: October 06, 2015, 08:40:32 pm »
Interesting that CJ Edwards couldn't crack the PCL top 20. 
I assume Baez wasn't eligible? 
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #647 on: October 06, 2015, 08:59:01 pm »
Quote from: Reb on October 02, 2015, 02:02:57 am
Midwest League-
1. G. Torres
6.  Happ

Surprised Torres came in #1.  That's a big league, like 15 teams?  I'd have expected somebody with star tools to come in first; usually there's a Buxton or Baez or a big-armed pitcher or something.  Hopefully that speaks to his scouting respect, and to more trade value than I'd have guessed.  Maybe if they don't get a good trade offer for Baez, they should consider big deal involving Torres as a key piece? 

Also surprised Happ at #6, after only 38 games and 39 K's.  Usually there is a good group of present or former 1st round talents in the massive Midwest League.  I'm guessing the quality/depth this year must be down a little, compared to some years.  But, hopefully that also reflects that despite his high K-rate, that from a pure scouting perspective people there think he looks like he'll be able to hit. 
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #648 on: October 06, 2015, 09:11:28 pm »
Quote from: craig on October 06, 2015, 05:50:16 pm
The Underwood report has the usual puzzlement.  Fast fastball, heavy fastball, they like his power curve, and they kind of like his change up, yet for all that good scouting A-ball hitters rarely miss and rarely K, and he's kind of a HR-guy.  Still a work in progress, obviously.  Will be interesting to see if his curve and change improve their consistency and effectiveness next year. 

BA report says IF Underwood secondary pitches reach their potential, he could be mid-rotation starter. IF secondaries reach potential. That's not too exciting and might explain modest Ks.

Also says floor is back-end power reliever. Those guys are valuable too.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #649 on: October 06, 2015, 09:20:59 pm »
BA is the low man then. BP and McDaniel like him better than that. Just my personal opinion, but BA seems to be more writers than scouts.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #650 on: October 06, 2015, 09:31:53 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 09:20:59 pm
BA is the low man then. BP and McDaniel like him better than that. Just my personal opinion, but BA seems to be more writers than scouts.

No. Not sure you understand how BA puts together these league top 10 lists. Based on their talks with league managers and coaches and scouts. They have a preamble explaining this methodology every year, which they have been doing for over 30 years.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #651 on: October 06, 2015, 09:43:37 pm »
Regarding strength of each minor league and top 10 lists, yeah strength varies year to year. BA rates each league each season from one star (very weak) to five stars.

Southern League this year is a five-star league, Carolina three-star, Midwest League two-star. PCL only a two-star and zero Cubs. Baez ineligible. Edwards, a reliever and few of those appear on these lists.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #652 on: October 06, 2015, 09:55:11 pm »
Quote from: Reb on October 06, 2015, 09:31:53 pm
No. Not sure you understand how BA puts together these league top 10 lists. Based on their talks with league managers and coaches and scouts. They have a preamble explaining this methodology every year, which they have been doing for over 30 years.

I'm perfectly aware of how they do it. I think it is a flawed process.  Oneri manipulated them like a master and they are still subject to that without the scouting background.  I prefer people that do their own scouting work and then round it out with league contacts (scouts, FO people not league managers) to confirm what they are seeing.  Hence more writers than scouts. Balder is the only guy that I really follow from BA and that is just because he has a ton of international info that most don't have the contacts for. The BA podcast is rather uninformative. The BP podcast and fangraphs podcasts are excellent. They get into the scouting and how to go about looking at stats, when and what is important.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #653 on: October 06, 2015, 10:03:43 pm »
They are reporting what a host of league managers, coaches, and scouts are telling them. Numerous sources. Guys from other teams, not just own guys' players. BA has cache and get frank assessments.

You, in other hand, rely on, what, one scout guy? McDaniel? I think he is excellent but to say BA is flawed--given their sources, is ridiculous.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #654 on: October 06, 2015, 10:46:06 pm »
Well that scout has worked for three teams and just might have better sources plus the ability to detect BS. Teams are going to have multiple reasons to manipulate the info they give out to the media.  It might be to hide a player that improved and hope other teams don't notice, pump up fan bases with the future, or get other teams to think they are missing something on a player. Managers and coaches can help a team in elvaulsting their players, but in large leagues they won't have the looks at so,embody to give a true evaluation of a player. So I would say valuing a lot of what BA prints at face value is naive.

I look at a whole bunch of different sources and try to look for what a majority are saying. When there is a disagreement I will value what BA says the least.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #655 on: October 06, 2015, 11:54:55 pm »
Who else does Carolina League top 20 prospects from 1-20?  Midwest League?  Who are these other sources that do this and what are they saying for 2015?
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #656 on: October 07, 2015, 12:01:45 am »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 06, 2015, 10:46:06 pm
Well that scout has worked for three teams and just might have better sources plus the ability to detect BS....

Not going to pick on McDaniel because I read and enjoy him..but he's a young guy, has left three teams already as former employers, and now is a blogger.  Is this moving up in the world?

You cited Oneri Fleita as an example of BA source.  Who knows if that's true or not, but Craig used to call it FleitaGush here.  EVERYBODY knew the guy was a BS artist.  To equate Fleita to all the managers, scouts, and coaches that BA talks to when doing their top 20 lists--to support your position--is let's say a very bad stretch. You are better than that. Try harder. 
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #657 on: October 07, 2015, 02:35:24 am »
From BA Carolina League chat:

Teddy (Granville): Hey Josh, thanks for the chat, I remember seeing you at Greenville and Tennessee earlier on in the season, but was wondering about your thoughts on the MB trio of pitchers, Tyler Skulina, Paul Blackburn, and Jen-ho Tseng? Skulina and Tseng both looked like back-end starters when I saw them earlier this year.

Josh Norris: You could find a few guys who liked that trio around the CL, but none of them really knocked anybody off the map. Of that three I’d probably take Tseng just because he’s the youngest and he’s got two average pitches in his FB and CB.
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guest61

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #658 on: October 07, 2015, 03:03:53 am »
We dont have a stud pitcher in our whole minor league system.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #659 on: October 07, 2015, 03:06:25 am »
Closest probably is Cease, the #2 prospect in Arizona League according to BA.

Will know a lot more about him when he hits full-season ball.

But, when your highest ceiling pitcher is in Rookie ball....... 
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