Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324116 times)

Dave23

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #660 on: October 07, 2015, 09:03:49 am »
When making Cubs prospect lists, Cease is an easy top 10 guy for me...

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #661 on: October 07, 2015, 10:06:44 am »
Not going to pick on McDaniel because I read and enjoy him..but he's a young guy, has left three teams already as former employers, and now is a blogger.  Is this moving up in the world?

You cited Oneri Fleita as an example of BA source.  Who knows if that's true or not, but Craig used to call it FleitaGush here.  EVERYBODY knew the guy was a BS artist.  To equate Fleita to all the managers, scouts, and coaches that BA talks to when doing their top 20 lists--to support your position--is let's say a very bad stretch. You are better than that. Try harder. 

There are a lot of reasons that people leave employers, especially in baseball.  Being young has zero influence on how well somebody does there job.

Which do you think is going to get a better response from a team?  McDaniel who sends them a list and asks for feedback, am I too high or too low on somebody with scouting notes or BA who goes please send me a list with scouting notes?  McDaniel has talked about this very issue on podcasts.  He gets better responses from his higher placed sources when it is done the first way. 

A team may have a vested interest in hiding a prospect, say a pitcher with a fastball velocity jump that is Rule eligible.  No team is going to say hey this guy is really good, come draft him.  McDaniel may miss him as well he at least has a chance by going to games.  Say the Cubs want to trade Vogelbach, they would have a vested interest in getting him rated highly and maybe getting a team to question that they missed something.  If your just a scribe for a team these types of things happen.  BA has there place, but to put them on some high ground because they talk to minor league managers is silly.  There are better sources out there.

Everybody knew Onri was a BS artist, but BA still took his word on Cubs prospects.

People are way too low Underwood and it is from scouting the stat line of an A ball pitcher that had things to work on that depressed his strike out numbers.  He is the best chance at a TORP in the system.  Cease shouldn't be viewed as much more than a lottery ticket at this point.    A very talented lottery ticket with TORP, but with way too many questions. 

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #662 on: October 07, 2015, 10:42:34 am »
Cease can throw in the upper 90s, occasionally hitting 100.

He has the potential of becoming Nolan Ryan.

Or Matt Mateos.

Or Dolis.

Or Tommy Hunter.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #663 on: October 07, 2015, 02:47:00 pm »
First, most of the comments BA publishes are not from the player's own club. So, treating what they do as exclusively from Oneri Fleitas of the world is baloney. Stop just making up stuff out of whole cloth.

Second, I asked a question and you didn't answer:who else is publishing top 20 league lists that you find preferable?

Third, yes folks leave jobs for all kind of reasons, but McDaniel went from scouting for three teams (all lateral moves, right?) to a blogger. You like him above all because he's a fangraphs guy and you swallow fangraphs whole hog. Notion that he has some special methodology superior to BA methodology is ridiculous. Geez, Listen to yourself sometimes.

Finally, one guy cannot possibly cover the multitude of minor leagues and players compared to other sources. BA has more resources and nobody is spread thin.

« Last Edit: October 07, 2015, 02:53:40 pm by Reb »

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #664 on: October 07, 2015, 03:19:29 pm »
First, most of the comments BA publishes are not from the player's own club. So, treating what they do as exclusively from Oneri Fleitas of the world is baloney. Stop just making up stuff out of whole cloth.

Second, I asked a question and you didn't answer:who else is publishing top 20 league lists that you find preferable?

Third, yes folks leave jobs for all kind of reasons, but McDaniel went from scouting for three teams (all lateral moves, right?) to a blogger. You like him above all because he's a fangraphs guy and you swallow fangraphs whole hog. Notion that he has some special methodology superior to BA methodology is ridiculous. Geez, Listen to yourself sometimes.

Finally, one guy cannot possibly cover the multitude of minor leagues and players compared to other sources. BA has more resources and nobody is spread thin.



1.) So a manager that sees a pitcher 1 time is a better judge of talent? 
2.) I find them kinda useless.     After the top 20 prospects all the list lose a lot of meaning.  The 50th prospect is going to be a lot closer to the 250th prospect than the #1. 
3.) BS.  My favorite prospect guy was Jason Parks, but the Cubs had to go ruin that and hire him.  I like McDaniel, BP and Sickels pretty equally.  Sickels has fallen off a bit in his writing this year, so I don't read him as much.  MLB.com and BA are pretty close in my mind.  I will read them, but I like the other guys better. 
McDaniel worked for the Yankees as an intern.  The Orioles as go between for scouts/anaylytics guys and the Pirates as a special analytics job.  His current job as a blogger let's him do what he wants to do.  Scouting/Analytics.  If some team can give him something similar he will leave.  It has nothing to do with him working for Fangraphs.  If he moved over to BA tomorrow I would likely get a subscription there. 
4.) He sees a majority of the big named guys and has sources that help him as well.  He also has guys that he is working with to develop at Fangraphs.  One of the was hired by ESPN to work with Law. BP has 8 or so guys that Parks hired working in different parts of the country.  Multiples of the BP guys are working for different teams now. 
5.) Any public info is flawed vs what the teams have.  So are just less flawed than others.  Just because BA has been around the longest does not mean they are the best.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #665 on: October 07, 2015, 03:35:09 pm »
I don't know what or who is the best. Read them all and find useful information everywhere I can.  But, to characterize BA the way you do, is totally unwarranted. Presumptuous is the way I would describe what you're saying.  And, you make up stuff. How do you know it's "a manager who sees a pitcher 1 time."  Where do you get that? And, you know that McDaniel has seen the guy more or is talking to folks who has seen the guy more?  How do you know the only BA source is a manger who's seen the pitcher once?  You just make up stuff to suit your fave guy and yourself.  Should stop with that. 

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #666 on: October 07, 2015, 05:35:57 pm »
How do you know it's "a manager who sees a pitcher 1 time."  Where do you get that?

You already answered those questions.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #667 on: October 07, 2015, 07:15:12 pm »
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #668 on: October 07, 2015, 10:04:57 pm »
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.

And what reason is there to believe the folks who compile the ratings, in part based on the opinions of opposing managers, do not also have access to that novel invention called "game logs" and weight those opinions accordingly, or that they really only even ask those managers who have seen a pitcher more than once?  (It's also interesting that you ignore the reference to the opinions of oppositions scouts.)

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #669 on: October 08, 2015, 11:48:43 am »
At the request of other I'm done with it.  I'll post thoughts occasionally on who I might like to see the Cubs target, but I'm not going to get in the long winded discussions. 

Jordan Zimmermann: 201.2 IP x 109 ERA+= 21981
Jon Lester 205 IPx 116 ERA+= 23780

So I expect Jes won't honor the bet, but he'll be back on ignore so I won't know.


Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #670 on: October 08, 2015, 03:08:28 pm »
I realize not everybody gets to spend time around minor league ball, but there is a thing called game logs. Underwood had 1 manager that saw him 4 times, 1 3 times, 2 twice and 5 1 times. In bigger leagues your going to get at most 4 trips between teams in division and a home/road for teams out of division. The I Cubs/Stormcashers played 17 times, 4 of which where 7 inning double headers and that is in division.

And how many times did McDaniel see Underwood?  And, how many times did McDaniel's assistants see Underwood compared to BA scouting contacts?

I will tell you.  We don't know.  You just make up stuff regarding who sees who, and how much.  Try to stop doing that.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #671 on: October 08, 2015, 03:45:45 pm »
I'm going to assume that last post is direct at me.  Like I said above, I'm done.

Re: On The Farm
« Reply #670 on: Today at 03:08:28 pm »
Quote
You are ignoring this user. Show me the post.


That is all I see.  If I annoy you that much do the same or pick a fight with somebody else.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #672 on: October 08, 2015, 03:59:29 pm »
And no clicking on "show me the post."   :D

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #673 on: October 08, 2015, 06:46:58 pm »
A good week gets better - apparently the Cubs have just signed Eddy Julio Martinez.

Dave23

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On The Farm
« Reply #674 on: October 08, 2015, 06:57:16 pm »
Wha? Thought he signed elsewhere the other day??