Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324175 times)

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #690 on: October 08, 2015, 10:05:45 pm »
Scouts are always all over the place on young IFAs.  Many teams, including the Cubs, had questions about Puig's talent, as well as Cespedes.  They pretty much succeeded, but I am sure that several others in the same situation failed.  The draft is a crap shoot, and the IFA market is even more of one.  The fortunate aspect of this one (if he is actually signed) is that he is not a 16 year old that has to grow into the "projections" for him, and also he has had much more actual game and competition experience than Soler had at the time he was signed.

But the bottom line is, it is only money that is risked, and not all that much in the grand scheme of current baseball finances.  I think Craig mentioned that it is equivalent to a year of Grabow (or Travis Wood).  A lot of money for us, but a tiny part of the Cubs overall budget.

I hope the signing is real, and that he passes the physical.  There is really no "stud" prospect in our system currently, at least in the Bryant or Schwarber class.  Maybe this will be a help to maintain the status of our system.  And there are still a few other unsigned IFAs out there, and more Cubans to come.

Did Vladimir Guererro's kid ever sign with anyone?  I think so, but don't remember for sure.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #691 on: October 08, 2015, 10:26:33 pm »
Blue Jays for a Vlad Jr I believe, for $4 million or so.

I'd really like some of the Cuban pitchers or the 16 year old Cuban that is supposed to be in the Monacada class of talent. Dodgers will still be large players.

Robb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #692 on: October 08, 2015, 11:11:14 pm »
So where would Eddy Julio Martinez end up in the Cubs prospect list? Top 10? Top 5?  Enlighten me.

guest61

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #693 on: October 08, 2015, 11:16:01 pm »
Top 5.

Since our studs are in the big leagues now we dont have much left IMO.

Cubsin

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #694 on: October 08, 2015, 11:31:04 pm »
So where would Eddy Julio Martinez end up in the Cubs prospect list? Top 10? Top 5?  Enlighten me.

I'd rank him no higher than 12th and no lower than 15th. My original 11-15 was Happ, Steele, Tseng, Zagunis and Vogelbach.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #695 on: October 08, 2015, 11:50:56 pm »
You set what would decide the bet and I agreed to it. Weak, but predictable.

Wrong.  I set what I wanted to bet on, and what would determine the winner.  We both agreed to that.  YOU set what you wanted to bet, and there was NO agreement to that.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #696 on: October 09, 2015, 12:04:17 am »
No more show me posts Jes. Don't bother.

Keith Law tweeted that if Martinez was in the draft he would have gone 4-7, but mostly likely 4.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #697 on: October 09, 2015, 12:49:40 am »
No more show me posts Jes. Don't bother.

Of course not.... because there is nothing you can show to support your claim that there was a bet.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #698 on: October 09, 2015, 03:48:14 am »
Below is Keith Law's report on Eddy Julio Martinez, who he saw this week in the DR.  If eligible, says would have been potential candidate to go #1 overall in next year's draft.  Was asked on twitter if Martinez would have gone 4-7 in most recent draft and Law said would likely have gone in top 4 along with the SSs who went 1-3, Rogers, Swanson, Bregman. Top 4, not 4-7 that was suggested in the question.

The odd summer and now autumn of Cuban center field prospect Eddy Julio Martinez took another odd turn earlier this week when an agreement he sort of had with the San Francisco Giants fell apart, meaning that he was still a free agent and could sign with any club. He's a premium talent, so his market would be limited to teams with cap room left or the willingness to ignore the international cap and pay the 100 percent penalty that signing him would incur.

The Chicago Cubs jumped at the opportunity, agreeing to terms on a $3 million bonus, pending a physical, earlier Thursday night, according to a source close to Martinez.

I flew to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, on Tuesday and watched Martinez take batting practice, and he put on a very impressive display of bat speed and power. His swing is very fluid and simple with excellent hip rotation, and despite a minimal stride, the right-handed hitter makes loud contact to all fields, with easy power from left field over to right-center. I did not get to see him play in a game, so what I know of the rest of his abilities -- such as his potential to play above-average center field -- comes from scouts who have seen him. Based on that, the BP I saw and his very live body, I think he's worth well more than the $3 million the Cubs reportedly will pay him. In fact, I think he's much closer to the $10 million or so that pre-July 2 reports had him getting from the Dodgers. If he were in the Rule 4 draft class for next year, we'd be talking about him as the potential No. 1 overall pick, so the Cubs getting him for $3 million is a relative steal.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #699 on: October 09, 2015, 03:54:39 am »
BA chat:

Joe R (Newport News, VA): The player whose absence surprised me the most was Billy McKinney. Has Almora really passed him by?

Matt Eddy: Yes, Almora has passed McKinney, according to sources I contacted for this ranking. Scouts weren’t bullish on either, but if neither is a frontline masher, then Almora at least has a carrying tool with his glove. You can read everything I have on Almora in his capsule, but regarding McKinney, a lack of notable power or speed or defensive ability or arm really cuts into his ceiling. His track record for hitting is stronger than Almora’s, of course, but scouts noticed poor timing at the plate for McKinney this season. He tended to stride too early and hit without his weight behind him, in the words of one source. This is a correctable problem, of course, but on the merits of 2015, I didn’t see a compelling argument in his favor.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #700 on: October 09, 2015, 03:57:05 am »
BA rankings.

11. Willson Contreras, c/3b, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2009.

Signed by the Cubs as a 17-year-old third baseman in 2009, Contreras spent his first three seasons as an unremarkable infielder before converting to catcher in 2012 . . . whereupon he spent three seasons as an unremarkable backstop. That changed in 2015 when Contreras hit .333 and won an unlikely batting title in the SL by going 12-for-27 (.444) in the final week to pass Max Kepler.

Even in a breakthrough season, Contreras began the year in a time-share with Kyle Schwarber and didn’t assume the starting job full-time until late June. He has a chance to be an offensive catcher in the big leagues, owing to his disciplined approach and short, compact stroke that produces lots of contact and power to the gaps. He ranked second in the SL with 34 doubles and with a .413 on-base percentage, while placing third with 151 hits.

A high-energy receiver who exudes confidence, Contreras combines strong receiving ability, good hands and average arm strength that can be improved by shortening his arm path and quickening his release. He also made eight starts at third base in 2015 and has spotted at first base in the recent past.

19. Albert Almora, of, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Hialeah Gardens, Fla., 2012 (1). Video

While Cubs first-rounders Javier Baez (2011 draft), Kris Bryant (2013) and Kyle Schwarber (2014) have put in half-seasons at Tennessee on their rapid rise to Chicago, Almora, the sixth overall pick in 2012, has progressed at a slower pace. He reached the SL late in the 2014 season and improved his year-over-year production in 2015, particularly in the second half when he hit .301/.370/.464 with 23 extra-base hits and 19 walks in 51 games.

A premium defensive center fielder, Almora recorded more putouts per game (2.4) than any SL outfielder but Byron Buxton, Max Kepler or Mallex Smith. He tends to play shallow because he ranges back on the ball so well, and scouts think highly of his lateral range and overall defensive instincts. Though he does not possess blazing speed or more than gap power, Almora is a smart baserunner who will profile as a top-of-the-order hitter if he can improve his on-base percentage and possibly steal a few more bases.

Almora makes a ton of contact—just two players who qualified for this ranking struck out less often—so the Cubs have stressed that a more patient approach would benefit him by allowing him to see more hitter’s counts and draw more free passes. On that note, Almora walked in a career-high 7 percent of plate appearances in 2015. Scouts love his competitive makeup and his ability to focus in big spots, but some don’t see a plus tool outside of his glove, viewing him as more of an outfield extra.


Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #701 on: October 09, 2015, 04:10:11 am »
Arizona Phil at Instructs yesterday:

Rob Zastryzny tossed four innings of one-hit shutout ball for the Cubs, and...About a dozen scouts were on hand to watch Zastryzny and his newly-minted curve ball that has coaches at instructs talking. The much-improved breaking ball could get Zastryzny on track to be a the pitcher the Cubs hoped he would be when they drafted the 6'3 left-hander out of the University of Missouri in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft.   


Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #702 on: October 09, 2015, 06:57:38 am »
Big discrepancies in the evaluation of Martinez:

Quote
Rick (SC): What has been the hold up with Eddy Julio Martinez signing? Any chance he doesn't sign until the 2016-17 period?

Ben Badler: He’s a solid but not great prospect who wants more money than teams want to pay him. And there are a lot of other Cuban players out there ahead of him. I think he’s more popular on the internet than he is with scouts.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #703 on: October 09, 2015, 08:50:13 am »
Thanks for all the info and quotes, guys. 

As Chris notes, the variance of opinion on Martinez is fascinating, and perhaps even more extreme than the typically divergent evaluation of guys.  Law thinks he might be on par with top-4 draft picks and a possibility for #1 next year; Kiley M has very favorable scouting scores; Badler, typically the most invested and connected media guy regarding internationals, not that interested.  Wasn't there some scouting report from a Cuban source ranking the Cuban prospects, who didn't have Martinez even in the top ten? 

Maybe Badler's reads more negatively than he really means; the early hype was exaggerated, so maybe he's emphasizing not Moncado or Soler/Puig or a $10/$40/$90 guy; perhaps some pushback against the hype makes his note sound more negative than it really is. 

Regardless, great to have some added talent.  Law's is the most recent/current analysis, so I like that. 

Ultimately perhaps the best perspective is the $$$.  If teams thought he was great, he'd have gotten more and gotten it sooner.  But even for the Cubs, spending $6 on a guy isn't peanuts.  I'll put him my Cubs top 12 somewhere. 

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #704 on: October 09, 2015, 08:52:27 am »
Of the public publications is it just Badler/BA that seems down on him?