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Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 328813 times)

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #975 on: December 11, 2015, 11:54:44 am »
Thanks, CBJ.
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #976 on: December 12, 2015, 04:58:48 pm »
The message-board fun discussing Inciarte on other thread speaks to the potential value that Almora could have, if he works out. 

Obviously we've got our doubts about whether Almora can ever hit to the modest Inciarte level, for good reason.  And obviously as favorably as scouts are about Almora defensively, we're not sure that relative to the high-standard of big-league CFers that he'll really be as good as Inciarte, or nearly as good as Heyward. 

But I think there's a reasonable enough chance that Almora will hit somewhat like Inciarte, and perhaps better. 

Could be fascinating to see how Soler and Almora look a year from now.  Might be shocked that we even considered Soler-for-Inciarte; or perhaps equally shocked that any of us ever imagined that Almora could become a factor at all. 

I'd like to keep them both.  Perhaps a year out, Dave's hypothetical "what if you had both Soler and Inciarte, who would actually play more...." will equivalently become reality with Soler/Almora. 

Almora could develop into a kind of nice 4th OFer behind the existing cast.  Schwarber's LH, so Almora could play some LF when Schwarber sits against tough lefties or when he catches.  Heyward has had his problems versus lefties; perhaps Almora could spell him periodically as well.  Almora could be a late-game defensive switch for either Soler or Schwarber, or perhaps a variable-frequency replacement guy for Soler. 

Having him work out as a solid 4th OFer could be really helpful.  Hope it works for him.  His second-half numbers sure looked promising; hope they're not just a small-sample fluke.  (Which is very possible.) 
« Last Edit: December 12, 2015, 05:00:44 pm by craig »
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #977 on: December 12, 2015, 05:09:04 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 12, 2015, 04:58:48 pm
The message-board fun discussing Inciarte on other thread speaks to the potential value that Almora could have, if he works out. 

Obviously we've got our doubts about whether Almora can ever hit to the modest Inciarte level, for good reason.  And obviously as favorably as scouts are about Almora defensively, we're not sure that relative to the high-standard of big-league CFers that he'll really be as good as Inciarte, or nearly as good as Heyward. 

But I think there's a reasonable enough chance that Almora will hit somewhat like Inciarte, and perhaps better. 

Could be fascinating to see how Soler and Almora look a year from now.  Might be shocked that we even considered Soler-for-Inciarte; or perhaps equally shocked that any of us ever imagined that Almora could become a factor at all. 

I'd like to keep them both.  Perhaps a year out, Dave's hypothetical "what if you had both Soler and Inciarte, who would actually play more...." will equivalently become reality with Soler/Almora. 

Almora could develop into a kind of nice 4th OFer behind the existing cast.  Schwarber's LH, so Almora could play some LF when Schwarber sits against tough lefties or when he catches.  Heyward has had his problems versus lefties; perhaps Almora could spell him periodically as well.  Almora could be a late-game defensive switch for either Soler or Schwarber, or perhaps a variable-frequency replacement guy for Soler. 

Having him work out as a solid 4th OFer could be really helpful.  Hope it works for him.  His second-half numbers sure looked promising; hope they're not just a small-sample fluke.  (Which is very possible.) 

Soler could go any which way in his career.  This is why I keep bringing up Cubs internal assessment of Soler, of which we have no real clue--other than seems brass go out of there way more to praise Baez than they do Soler.  My impression.  Guessing there is a lot of internal Cubs debate about Soler, with smart folks on both sides.

Trust they will do the prudent thing on whether move Soler or not.  They could be terribly wrong either way.  A bit scary to move him for a contact/defensive player when Soler could turn out to be a masher for years. I get that.

On other hand, Inciarte coming off really good season.  Yes, possibly a career year. We'll see.  As to Almora, Inciarte/Almora might be a really good platoon if either or both struggle against platoon sides--with one an outstanding fourth OFer.  Could be terrific tandem. Of course, not thrilled to trade Soler for a fourth OFer, so all boils down to Soler projection. 

In the end, think if Soler traded it's for pitching.  CF can be filled in other ways--as much as I like Inciarte.  If Soler traded, Heyword is the RFer.  Think that's how discussion started.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #978 on: December 12, 2015, 06:39:50 pm »
Just for fun. Here is Inciarte's wRC+ in the minors
2009- 18
Rookie 105
2010- 19
A- 80
A 69
2011- 20
A 94
2012- 21
A 124
A+ 111
2013- 22
AA 101
2014- 23
AAA 109

Almora
2012- 18 
Rookie 119
A- 106
2013- 19
Rookie 124
A 137
2014- 20
A+ 100
AA 64
2015- 21
AA 105

Almora's lowest ISO so far has been in 2014 at AA. Inciarte topped that 2 times (264 PA and 120 PA). He was below .100 at 4 levels, including the only 2 times he had greater than 500 PA.



« Last Edit: December 12, 2015, 06:50:04 pm by CUBluejays »
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #979 on: December 12, 2015, 08:21:26 pm »
Blue, those are helpful, and clearly Almora's been the better minor-league hitter.  So certainly he has a chance to be as good, and perhaps better with more power, than Inciarte. 

Not sure how valuable that is, though; the weird thing with Inciarte is that this year's big-league stats are pretty much better than he ever was in the minors.  How rare is that?  Very uncommon for a guy to do as well or better in majors than in minors.  There are a ton of guys whose minor-league stats could compare favorably to Inciarte's; but very few of those guys are able to carry those over to the majors.  Inciarte appears to be something of a development fluke. 

Hopefully Almora will be another, who hits much better in majors than in minors.   
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #980 on: December 12, 2015, 08:36:39 pm »
Quote from: Reb on December 12, 2015, 05:09:04 pm
Soler could go any which way in his career.  This is why I keep bringing up Cubs internal assessment of Soler, of which we have no real clue--other than seems brass go out of there way more to praise Baez than they do Soler.  ....

Trust they will do the prudent thing on whether move Soler or not.  They could be terribly wrong either way.  .....

Agree.  Internal assessment now underlies the decisions made this winter.  But your point is also well taken; no matter how smart they might be, they might have no ability to forecast the future with a player like that.  They might have a very different internal assessment a year from now compared to what it is today. 
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #981 on: December 12, 2015, 10:16:49 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 12, 2015, 08:21:26 pm
Not sure how valuable that is, though; the weird thing with Inciarte is that this year's big-league stats are pretty much better than he ever was in the minors.  How rare is that?  Very uncommon for a guy to do as well or better in majors than in minors.  There are a ton of guys whose minor-league stats could compare favorably to Inciarte's; but very few of those guys are able to carry those over to the majors.  Inciarte appears to be something of a development fluke. 

Hopefully Almora will be another, who hits much better in majors than in minors.   

His first year Inciarte had a wRC+ of 87 and ISO of .081.  Last year he was wRC+ of 100 and an ISO of .105.  Chances are decent that last year is going to be his best offensive year. I think it will be interesting for Inciarte as he moves from a hitters park to a pitchers park as to what his offense does.  FWIW ZIPS is projecting to be around .700 OPS for the next 3 years in Atlanta and be below 3 WAR each year.  Steamer is less optimistic for him, but I don't know if the reran it in Atlanta vs Arizona.

Almora isn't going to K.  He might never walk much, but if he can be more selective in the pitches he hits I think he can out hit Inciarte by a lot.  If he doesn't I think there is a decent chance that he can be just about Inciarte on offense.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #982 on: December 12, 2015, 10:49:49 pm »
Don 't know what future holds for Inciarte but much of the above numbers was foundation of the argument that he would be fringy in 2015. How did that work out?
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #983 on: December 12, 2015, 10:50:20 pm »
Posting a .700-OPS in the major leagues isn't that easy, and there are lots of guys unable to do that.  Inciarte maybe can, iffy, but good chance he's borderline. 

Wouldn't shock if Almora can, and can do somewhat better.  Might he be Castro-esque?  (Castro is career .725.)  Possible. 

But also certainly possible that he won't be able to support a .700-OPS, and might be more Darwin Barney?  That's possible too.  Time will tell. 

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Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #984 on: December 15, 2015, 05:42:03 am »
Cubs have five players on MLB.com's top 100 list.

Torres: 29
McKinney: 34
Edwards: 57
Underwood: 67
Almora: 89

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=prospects



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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #985 on: December 15, 2015, 07:05:38 am »
Wow.  Crazy that Edwards is still up that high.  And McKinney. 
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JeffH

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #986 on: December 15, 2015, 07:30:56 am »
No Contreras.
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Ron

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #987 on: December 15, 2015, 07:32:06 am »
Seems like a very odd list, particularly McKinnney being so high and Contreras being absent.
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Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #988 on: December 15, 2015, 07:35:52 am »
Quote from: Ron on December 15, 2015, 07:32:06 am
Seems like a very odd list, particularly McKinnney being so high and Contreras being absent.

Isn't calling it "odd" more than a mere understatement?

Doesn't the fact that Contreras is not on it at all give pause to whether the list has any meaningful value?
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Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #989 on: December 15, 2015, 08:06:59 am »
Au Contreras.
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