Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324174 times)

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1035 on: January 07, 2016, 02:12:08 pm »
On Hudson.

"Team sources say he has gained 20 pounds since signing."  "His fastball sat in the upper-80s for most of his senior year in high school, but reports from the team have him 91-93 in instructs."

A projectable 6'8" lefty whose curveball is his #1 with a 91-93 fastball as his #2, that's an interesting wildcard.  Heh heh, could be the next Andy Sisco!

Heh heh, ten years ago lefty with Hudson's length would have gotten Randy Johnson allusions. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1036 on: January 07, 2016, 02:32:38 pm »
...Theo specifically mentioned Adbert Alzolay after the post-season (with the better known short-season pitchers), so a bit surprised no mention of him among 40 prospects in Fangraphs piece. Probably inadvertent omission.

I just re-read the DelaRosa scouting report:  I don't think Farnsworth has probably ever actually seen him.  For other guys, I think he often has some pre-draft scouting notes; he has some first-hand observations for some; and he has some variably limited game-video clip(s) to analyze.  Most hitters he's commenting on their swing plane and hands and stuff; most pitchers he comments on the mechanics of their delivery to variable degree.  None of that for DelaRosa.  He's got a little video clip from spring training, he's got stats, and he's got input from Cubs people.  But none of his own independent delivery analysis like he does with guys he's actually scouted himself.  I think that report is totally written from the stats and from what Cub sources have told him. 

I think this is not unusual, for writers who were formerly draft scouts, regarding short-season Latin players.  BA has often been like that; much of their scouting on short-season guys is largely taken from their pre-draft stuff.   

I assume the same would apply to Alzolay.  Arguella mentioned him in comments this week; said in an earier draft he'd had Alzolay in his top-22, but he's only seen him for 1-2 innings in spring training.  Sounded like Alzolay is supposed to have a very good fastball. 

Alzolay lists at only 6'0", and will be 22.  Alzolay is interesting; when a guy is 21 and doesn't get used as a starter at Eugene, I don't really expect likely to become an impact starter later.  My guess is he's got a pretty hot fastball, but at first they figured a 6'0" fastballer is probably a reliever.  Over his first 41 innings, mostly in relief, he had 30K/41IP.  Nothing to catch your attention there.  But then late in the season he got 3 starts, and in his final two starts he was 19K/12IP/1BB. 

I assume whatever was happening in those two starts is what Theo had in his brain.  And my guess is that if Alzolay has a hot fastball, that perhaps by end of season he'd come up with some kind of a breaking ball that was working for him.  You don't get 19K/12BB throwing all fastballs.  Will be interesting to see how he gets used next spring.   


ticohans

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1037 on: January 07, 2016, 02:48:11 pm »
Farnsworth is definitely a floor vs ceiling guy, probably reflecting a scouts first-hand view of how many prospects flame out. Personally, I like that his voice is so different. Don't need another publication parroting BA, etc.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1038 on: January 07, 2016, 02:49:19 pm »
South Bend could have an interesting roster.  DelaRosa, Steele, and Sands would all seem rotation step-ups and locks. 
Perhaps Alzolay? 
Jose Paulino? 
Preston Morrison, Ryan Kellog, and Kyle Twomey are three college draftees who might be variably interesting.  Morrison with his 30K/3BB/22IP at Eugene probably overqualified and skips to A+. 

But that could be a pretty win-effective rotation. 

Maybe Happ will skip to Myrtle, but probably start at South Bend. 
A lineup with Happ, Jiminez, DeWees, perhaps EJ Martinez, perhaps Wilson, that could have some fun hitters to follow, too.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1039 on: January 07, 2016, 03:04:45 pm »
In his Cubs prospect chat at BA in November, John Manuel mentioned Pedro Araujo along with Alzolay.

Araujo is already 22, so pretty likely he'll be in South Bend bullpen at least. At Eugene last season, 70 Ks and 9 BB in 50 IP. Took him awhile to progress from DSL earlier in career. Maybe another guy to watch in this category.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1040 on: January 07, 2016, 05:12:42 pm »
In his Cubs prospect chat at BA in November, John Manuel mentioned Pedro Araujo along with Alzolay.

Araujo is already 22, so pretty likely he'll be in South Bend bullpen at least. At Eugene last season, 70 Ks and 9 BB in 50 IP. Took him awhile to progress from DSL earlier in career. Maybe another guy to watch in this category.

Yeah.  BA's post-season report on Araujo (22) didn't list him with enough velocity to be very exciting.  The same, I think, applies for reports on Blackburn (22) or Tseng (21), or Erick Leal (20) or Kellogg (22). 
But, pitching and age/development is an inexact and non-reproducible deal.  Normally, big velocity increases are more likely to emerge before guys are hitting 21 and 22, not after.  But, I suspect there are some exceptions.  Perhaps some change in training regimen, perhaps strengthening or perhaps somehow loosening the shoulder, (perhaps some banned steroids), can boost some velocity.  More often some mechanical adjustment that improves the delivery, can sometimes enable guys in their 20's to add a couple mph at unexpected ages. 

If suddenly this spring we were getting reports that Araujo/Blackburn/Tseng/Kellogg/Leal were throwing significantly harder, without loss of control/movement, who knows which might become significantly more interesting.  Not impossible.  That would be pretty fun. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1041 on: January 07, 2016, 05:17:59 pm »
Have Cubs hired Derek Johnson replacement yet as pitching coordinator?  Johnson was very, very well respected, so may be hard to find his equal. 

Still, always possible that a new guy might come in who's got a few really good new ideas of his own, or who can perhaps notice some delivery flaws and solutions that Johnson didn't?  Or maybe who just has an ability to connect with a few guys and help them out?  Would be fun to add some value.


OK, the power of Google!  Jim Brower, 43, 8-team journeyman plus Japan and Italy and lots of minor-league stops as a player.  5 years coaching in Kansas City system, last three in AA.  Hey, he's a Minnesota kid, he's going to be great!  I imagine being a journeyman like that exposes to a lot of different pitching coaches, and probably  a lot of different teammates with different ideas.  If one voice gets old, he's probably heard a lot of them, and could have accumulated a lot of good ideas. 


Cubs generally seem to be pretty shrewd on the personnel side, so I've got to assume he's a capable guy.   
« Last Edit: January 07, 2016, 05:26:52 pm by craig »

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1042 on: January 07, 2016, 07:48:25 pm »
*Vogelbach at #6!!!!  He loves Vogelbach's hitting, and still sees him as a serious power hitter.  Said he had no power because he was playing with hamstring and oblique injuries all year. 


It would be wonderful if he is right, and if so, certainly the Cub have been aware of it, and that knowledge might explain why he was not packaged together with some other prospects for something of value.  That said, despite having started as one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Vogelbach, I have close to written him off after the 2015 season.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1043 on: January 07, 2016, 08:35:11 pm »
I'm with you, jes.  :)  He was #40 on my prospect list, which I think reflected my thinking when the season ended.  A DH-prospect who hits 7 HR isn't that valuable to us, or to anybody else in trade. 

But the injury excuse, that's interesting.  A 20-HR Vogelbach who otherwise hits and walks like he does, without K-ing too much, that could be a value. 

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1044 on: January 07, 2016, 09:24:58 pm »
One of the problems with judging a prospect solely on stats is that there is a lot of things that can affect performance that we are not privy to.  Did he have minor nagging injuries?  Was he asked to work on specific weaknesses?  Does he have a flaw that the training staff believes is correctable?

Regardless, I find it hard to think of a scenario in which I would rate Vogelbach sixth in the Cubs system right now.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1045 on: January 08, 2016, 08:27:50 am »
One of the problems with judging a prospect solely on stats is that there is a lot of things that can affect performance that we are not privy to.  Did he have minor nagging injuries?  Was he asked to work on specific weaknesses?  Does he have a flaw that the training staff believes is correctable?

Regardless, I find it hard to think of a scenario in which I would rate Vogelbach sixth in the Cubs system right now.

I don't know about that.  If you just attributed 30 hypothetical HR to the rest of the guy's 2015 stats....

Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1046 on: January 08, 2016, 07:50:41 pm »
P.J. Francescon suspended 50 games for a second failed drug test.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/161460196/cubs-jp-francescon-suspended-for-50-games

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1047 on: January 10, 2016, 01:37:28 pm »
The Cubs released him, but driveline baseball tweeted out that Trey McNutt has gone from throwing in the mid 80's in Oct up to 100 in January. They are big on the weighted balls work out.

CurtOne

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1048 on: January 10, 2016, 05:50:40 pm »
How do inject weighted balls?  Or is that code for testosterone?

craig

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