Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324227 times)

Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1065 on: January 29, 2016, 11:24:44 pm »
MLB's top 100 list out tonight.

Torres #28

Contreras #50

Happ #76

Underwood #77

Almora #86

McKinney #88


http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects

Playtwo

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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1067 on: February 03, 2016, 11:42:24 pm »
I guess there wasn't much doubt about Almora opening the season at AAA (rather than going back to AA) but Jason McLeod confirms that Almora opening the season at AAA, in this Mooney piece.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-believe-albert-almora%E2%80%99s-time-coming-after-kris-bryant-and-kyle-schwarber%E2%80%99s-fast-track

Robb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1068 on: February 04, 2016, 09:22:19 am »
It would sure be nice if Pierce Johnson could put it all together and be a cheap option for the injury replacement this year or Hammel replacement next.  He has apparently developed a change up that has made all the difference. 

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/163562558/cubs-prospect-pierce-johnsons-changeup-key

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1069 on: February 04, 2016, 01:08:17 pm »
Interesting, thanks, Robb.  Agree, having Johnson emerge as a viable decent rotation option would really help.  Whether for injury, or Hammel 2nd-half decline this year.  Or for 2017 when Hammel no longer has a guaranteed deal, or for that matter for 2018 when Lackey's is done.  Would be interesting to see what Johnson did if he was and stayed healthy all spring and into the summer. 

Interesting that he speaks positively about his change development, as if that's new and was heavily incorporated. 

Sahadev Sharma had a Johnson report in Vineline just this week.  Instead of talking about the change, he said that Johnson had developed a cutter during 2014, and that in 2015 he relied heavily, perhaps excessively, on his cutter.  Suggested some Cub people thought he hadn't used his fastball enough, and that the increased reliance on the cutter perhaps led to Johnson's drop in K's. 

If he had a *good* fastball and slider, and then added in good cutter plus also a good change, that would give some tools to win with.  The flip is that his fastball command has often been scouted as inconsistent.  May be that having four pitches, several still in the development mode, might work against consistent command of any of them.  Hopefully he'll be a nice development story, guy who needed to add some weapons, and over time masters them and ends up succeeding.   

Chris27

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1070 on: February 04, 2016, 01:37:34 pm »
Johnson has manged to stay healthy enough to pitch 118, 103, and 95 innings over his 3-year career. Why would anyone have confidence that he can be a durable starter anywhere at this point?

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1071 on: February 04, 2016, 02:38:19 pm »
Chris, were any of those arm-related?  No I'd neither confidently expect that Johnson would be either durable or effective as a starter.  But sometimes things go unexpectedly well for teams that win the WS, and things that couldn't have been confidently expected turn out to happen anyway. 

Pro athletes get injured, but I still question how predictive past injuries are of future injuries.  That may vary from injury to injury and man to man. 
*If a guy has a chronically injured shoulder (Neil Ramirez, maybe?) or injured back, things that have not and never will heal completely, then of course those issues are likely to be recurring.  But I don't think that's Johnson at this point.  His lat injury, I don't think that's at all connected to the ankle injury or whatever from 2014. 

*Another scenario may be that certain guys are just inherently fragile for whatever reason.  If it's not one thing it's another.  That may well be Johnson.

*But, there also is coincidence.  It may be coincidence that Johnson has had unrelated injuries.  He may perhaps not have any greater probability of incurring some non-arm-related injury this year than any other pitcher we've got. 

*In his case there may be the thought that his delivery isn't good, and that his size isn't great either.  So that while his recent injuries have NOT been arm-related, that if he is racking up rotation innings it's a matter of time before his arm will give out.  Perhaps so. 

Chris Coghlan had a reputation as a repeatedly-injured guy.  But now he's gone back-to-back years just fine.  May have been coincidental.  I'm hoping it's just been coincidental with Johnson and that he'll be both effective and available. 

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1072 on: February 04, 2016, 03:19:51 pm »
I forget what Johnson does with his delivery, but he does something at the end of the delivery that increases stress on his elbow.  His injury in college was to the elbow.  I'm kinda like Chris in I'll believe it when I see him pitch full years without injury.

I think he would be really interesting as a Cahill replacement.  Somebody that pitches out of the bullpen and maybe spot starts.

It isn't so much that previous injury=future injury.  Previous injury is the risk factor for future injury that has the best predictive value.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1073 on: February 04, 2016, 04:12:34 pm »
....It isn't so much that previous injury=future injury.  Previous injury is the risk factor for future injury that has the best predictive value.

That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 

method

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1074 on: February 04, 2016, 04:34:23 pm »
That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 

Players hide injuries, overcompensate and hurt themselves in different ways... Anthony Rendon is the perfect example of this....

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1075 on: February 04, 2016, 04:57:03 pm »
 
But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true. 

For a pitcher I would consider a lat injury part of the arm.  The delivery is putting stress in places it shouldn't be.  Does it mean the elbow or shoulder is going to blow out?  No.  It would be a red flag.

An ankle injury wouldn't have predictive value for an elbow injury.  It would be concerning for future ankle injuries. 

Now method is certainly right, playing through an ankle injury might alter his delivery and put stress in places that you don't it be.  That could lead to arm injuries, but it isn't going to have a big predictive value.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1076 on: February 04, 2016, 05:00:41 pm »
Thanks method, that makes good sense.  So, last year's lat injury may have led to compensation that stressed the delivery and will lead to elbow injury this summer.  Well possible. 

One irony is that perhaps some of the "injury-prone" guys are viewed so because they were held out, thus reducing risk of compensation injury.  The Cubs are very cautious with farm injuries.  Actions to avoid the risk of compensation injury, in a sense are now being held against the player. 

Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1077 on: February 04, 2016, 05:18:24 pm »
Johnson has manged to stay healthy enough to pitch 118, 103, and 95 innings over his 3-year career. Why would anyone have confidence that he can be a durable starter anywhere at this point?

That's the crux of it for me.  Tinkering with the pitch mix is fine, but I just don't see the durability history to indicate Johnson can be counted on as a likely option for the rotation.  If he surprises, then great.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1078 on: February 04, 2016, 08:10:07 pm »
That's what I don't fully understand. 

I get having an elbow injury past having best predictive value for elbow injury future, absolutely.
Neil ramirez with shoulder problems pretty much every year for years, that have significant predictive value. 

But why would ankle injury past be the best predictors of lat injury future? 
And why would lat injury past have predictive value for elbow injury future? 
I don't really get that.  I wonder if it's actually true.

Repetitive stress injuries can be predictive of repetitive stress injuries, even if a different part of the body is involved -- some folks simply are not particularly durable.

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1079 on: February 04, 2016, 08:24:08 pm »
I don't think that anyone is counting on Johnson, any more than they are counting on anyone else in the minor league system.  That is why they build depth and flexibility into the rosters throughout the system.