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Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 329080 times)

davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1095 on: February 10, 2016, 03:19:28 pm »
Baseball America has always slanted towards potential impact-near MLB ready prospects, and the Cubs have few if any right now.  Some of the other publications place a little more value on depth.  I am  a little surprised that Law ranked them as high as he did.
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Deeg

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1096 on: February 10, 2016, 04:01:00 pm »
I'm not sure I've ever see a system ranked that disparately before.  Obviously Law nudged the ranking up at least a few spots to call attention to himself after seeing the BA rank - that's just how he is.  But the reality is almost certainly somewhere in-between those two extremes, where most of the scouting publications have the Cubs placed.
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Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1097 on: February 10, 2016, 04:11:07 pm »
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1098 on: February 10, 2016, 04:45:01 pm »
Quote from: davep on February 10, 2016, 03:19:28 pm
Baseball America has always slanted towards potential impact-near MLB ready prospects, and the Cubs have few if any right now.  Some of the other publications place a little more value on depth.  I am  a little surprised that Law ranked them as high as he did.

Law is closer to where Theo was putting the system.  Law is also orders of magnitude higher on Martinez than BA.  BA considers him a pretty blah prospect, where Law would have him as a top of the draft guy in 2016.

I think there is a difference in types of depth too.  This current system has a lot of guys that could slot into the back 10 of other teams prospect lists, so guys are valuable.  In the past the Cubs had a lot guys in the 20-30 range, they aren't that valuable.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 04:52:01 pm by CUBluejays »
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1099 on: February 10, 2016, 05:44:02 pm »
Reflects the "eye of the beholder" bit.  BA's is supposedly informed by input from multiple scouts, so theoretically might be a better consensus-view thermometer than Law, who is a one-man evaluation team.  As Dave noted, other factor may be different weighting of the value of a few primo, superstar, top-30-in-game prospects versus depth of 50-150-in-baseball types.  If Torres/Contreras/Almora are on the very top of our list, those guys aren't exactly superstar candidates. 

In Law's case, he may have been "brutally honest" on Vogelbach and Szczur in years past.  But I think he's somewhat over-the-top hyper gush on some of the current cub guys. 
*He's huge on Torres.  Saw him in batting practice before a Myrtle game, and loves him.
*He's the most positive Happ guy I've heard of. 
*He was super-buzzed on Martinez, as Blue mentioned, kind of the opposite extreme from BA's Badler. 
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Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1100 on: February 10, 2016, 05:57:16 pm »
Quote from: craig on February 10, 2016, 05:44:02 pm
If Torres/Contreras/Almora are on the very top of our list, those guys aren't exactly superstar candidates. 


I think Torres and Contreras both are likely to have major league All Star games in their future.
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brjones

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1101 on: February 10, 2016, 06:11:43 pm »
Law is also down on Almora more than most--I would be shocked if he ended up being one of the six Cubs on the top 100 tomorrow.

The main thing about Law is he is very confident (some might say arrogant) in his evaluations.  That comes across as being contrarian just for the sake of it sometimes, but I think it's just that he thinks he's right.  Also, he's gone on record in the past as saying that he values many of the same characteristics in prospects that Theo values, so it shouldn't be a shock that he's on board with the Cubs' thinking.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1102 on: February 10, 2016, 08:38:01 pm »
Quote from: craig on February 10, 2016, 05:44:02 pm
kind of the opposite extreme from BA's Badler. 

Badler isn't a scout. He does an excellent job of covering international guys, until Jesse Sanchez started doing it he was the only game in town.

Law isn't a one man show. He has Eric Longerham (sp) working for him right now.  Longerham started with Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs before jumping to ESPN. Prior to Longerham BP current prospect guy worked with Law. Before him it was McDaniel. Law can be a bit of an a$$, which leads to some misconceptions about him.
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brjones

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1103 on: February 11, 2016, 06:19:52 am »
The six Cubs who made Law's list:

15. Gleyber Torres
27. Willson Contreras
47. Ian Happ
69 Billy McKinney
88. Albert Almora
91. Dylan Cease

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14740563/index-top-100-prospects-2016-including-corey-seager-others-mlb
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chgojhawk

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1104 on: February 11, 2016, 07:23:18 am »
Am I the only one that isn't drinking the Ian Happ Kool-Aid?

I sure hope that he is worthy of a top 50 ranking, but I don't understand what puts him there.  It seems like he has an iffy glove, strikes out quite a bit, isn't a huge power potential guy, isn't overly fast.......

Can anyone paint me a picture on this?
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craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1105 on: February 11, 2016, 09:21:09 am »
Yeah, that's really high on Happ.  Law loves his swing and his approach.  Hope he's right. 
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davep

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1106 on: February 11, 2016, 09:26:32 am »
Ian Happ, in my opinion, is not anywhere close in to the potential (or probability of reaching that potential) as Bryant or Schwarber.  But I would still rate him above the level of McKinney or Almora, if for no other reason than that he has a combination of excellent speed and better than average power.  You call his glove "iffy" and I have no problem with that if you mean that he has not yet proven that he can play second base.  But nor has he proven that he can not play second base adequately.

He did strike out quite a bit, but he also walked quite a bit.  His OBA was about 100 points higher than his BA.  And 9 home runs in 250 at bats is a fair amount of power for a first year professional.

I think that Happ is pretty much what we have to expect from our top draft choices from this point on.  He seems to have a ceiling of a better than average, but not dominant player.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1107 on: February 11, 2016, 10:31:56 am »
Happ
Boise    .283/.408/.491,  ISO .208,  17.7 BB%,  21.5% K%,  .347 BABIP
SB        .241/.315/.448,  ISO .207,  10.3 BB%,  23.6    K%,  .288 BABIP

So Happ right now can play all 3 OF positions and is a switch hitter.  He ran into some bad batted luck at South Bend that depressed his numbers.  His power potential is just a tick below Javy.   If he can play an average second base that is a pretty awesome prospect. 
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chgojhawk

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1108 on: February 11, 2016, 11:53:56 am »
Pretty good painting so far.  Thanks!!

I think he fits the versatility profile that Madden likes.  I like that he is a switch hitter.  I have to question that his power potential is just a tick below Baez.  He had great power numbers in his limited minor league stint, but most of the ratings I saw prior to the draft (or just after) had him as a 50 or 60 which is average or a tick above.  I would like to think that the scouts were wrong about his power and that his minor league showing was more in tune with what we can expect, but it is a small sample.

I will withhold judgment and hope for the best.  I'm not saying that he won't pan out.  I am simply saying that a top 50 ranking seems high when most draft "experts" had him going in the 20 range of the draft.
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CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1109 on: February 11, 2016, 12:58:42 pm »
That is where everybody had Schwarber as well pre-draft.

As far as power goes
50 would be 15-18 HR
55 19-22 HR
60 23-27 HR
65 27-30 HR
70 30-35 HR
75 35-40 HR
80 40+    HR

I'd put Baez in the 60-65 area for power and Happ more in the 55-60.  If everything clicks for Baez, he might be a 70+ power guy, but a lot has to go right for that to happen.  To me that is a tick below.

At second base last year only 2 hit more than 20 HR, 7 where 15+.  In CF 5 where 20+, 9 full time CF had 15+.  In the corner OF his power would have to be more towards the top of his projection and that is what hurt his draft stock.

Top 50 is high for him, but a lot of people on this board are way to low on him.  Even if he's a top 50 prospect he's far from a sure thing to even reach the majors, let alone be a quality player.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 01:01:18 pm by CUBluejays »
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