Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 324269 times)

jacey1

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1110 on: February 11, 2016, 01:16:49 pm »
I like Happ and think he could be a very useful ML player. Not so sure he is top 50 type prospect, though

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1111 on: February 11, 2016, 01:34:31 pm »
Law projects Happ at 2B. As an up-the-middle guy on the defensive spectrum, that's a lot of brownie points.

Other thing is that Happ has been an accomplished hitter since Freshman season---played at the Cape and excelled there TWICE and has a track record, which is more of a deal for some scouts than others--kind of a known quantity.

And, a switch-hitter who walks a lot. Big plus.

Ks are an issue of course but at 2B--if that works out--you have a player. Saw him at the Cape once-- at DH that day-- and has a terrific lefty swing. Jumps out at you.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1112 on: February 11, 2016, 02:57:42 pm »
Some Keith Law chat that I found interesting.

John: How does Jose Peraza hit 293/.316/.378 as a 21-year-old in AAA and drop from #24 in your rankings last year to off the list??
Klaw: So this seems like a good first question because I can start by clearing up a misconception or two. First, the 2015 list is not just (2014 ranking + 2015 performance). I start from scratch each year, and if that means correcting a mistake or two (or ten) from the previous year’s list, so be it. If I tried to use old lists as a basis for future ones, I’d just be perpetuating old errors. There’s value in being consistent, but too much so is just stubbornness. Second, nothing about this list is purely performance-based; the rankings are based in scouting, in physical tools and baseball skills, as much as they are in performance, probably more so. As for Peraza, a second baseman with no power and a .316 OBP is not someone who belongs on a top 100. The reports from the past year were worse than the year before, and now with two years gone from shortstop, the odds of him being able to return there seem quite slim.

Ed: Jon Gray (40 IP) meet service time to miss the list or he’s just fallen that far in a year?
Klaw: He’s gone backwards. Someone altered his delivery, so he’s lost a lot of power. His fastball is down, his slider went from a 70 to a 50, and he has zero deception. That’s why he got whacked around in the big leagues – hitters see the straight four-seamer and hit it. Back in college, he finished way more over his front side, got more tilt on the slider, was touching 99, and even had a better changeup. I don’t know what caused the alteration, but I saw it and so did every scout I asked about Gray for these reports.

KLAW hates my team: You mentioned a few months ago that you thought Eddy Julio Martinez would be in the running for the top pick in this years draft, but he didn’t make the top 100. Is this mainly due to lack of certainly being that you haven’t seen him play in a game?
Klaw: Nobody’s seen him play – and his brief time in the CNS wasn’t great (plus I think it was two years ago). My gut on his upside was not enough to just stuff the guy into the top 100. Yes, it’s my list, but it’s grounded in way more than what my eyes see.

Justin: Is there anything in particular that makes you think Wilson Contreras’s performance last season was predictive progress rather than an aberration?
Klaw: Tools are there. Great swing. Very athletic kid. Can even run a little. Throws well. Receiving is not great. But definitely performance supported by the scouting report.

Ed: Nice to Albert Almora back on the list. Would you say he’s progressed well since last year, or is it fair to say with all of the promotions in 2015 that the top 100 this year isn’t rated quite as high as last years?
Klaw: I think both are fair. Promotions really hit the minors hard, so this year’s list is skewed more towards players who are further away or a touch flawed. But he did make some modest progress at the plate, and he could always field.

Michael: Do you Arismendy Alcantara turning things around this year?
Klaw: I think he has the ability, but I honestly don’t know what the true reasons were behind his 2015 struggles.

James: Good afternoon! Let’s say that an org recommends a pitcher change his delivery, mound position, etc. And let’s say the pitcher doth protest. Can a pitcher do himself damage within the org by resisting, even if he’s concerned about the impact of that change on his future health/ability/prospects?
Klaw: He’d be right to do so and I wish more pitchers would push back. I think this happened to Appel in Houston and he complied with their wishes, speeding up his delivery, ditching the two-seamer, going to the slide-step even though he can get long in the back so now his arm doesn’t catch up … and voila, results that don’t match the stuff.

aaron: Keith- How much of Gleyber Torres’ rating is tied to being a shortstop? As he probably won’t play there with the Cubs already with Russell, how would being at 2nd or 3rd affect his high slot?
Klaw: If he’s truly a shortstop, then that’s how I’ll rate him. Club context does not apply. Otherwise I might downgrade every Rockies’ starter because of what pitching in Denver does, but I treat their guys like I’d treat any other team’s starters.

Steve: How do you see Ian Happ progressing? I’ve read concerns about his bat missing a lot last season. Any concern there? Is he destined for the OF or can he handle 2B duties at the MLB level?
Klaw: Second base for me. Bat missing meaning a lot of swing and miss? He’s definitely a high walk/high strikeout guy but I don’t think he’s a guy who struggles with contact so much as a guy who likes to work the count a lot and isn’t afraid of striking out.


Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1113 on: February 11, 2016, 07:19:57 pm »
Am I the only one that isn't drinking the Ian Happ Kool-Aid?

I sure hope that he is worthy of a top 50 ranking, but I don't understand what puts him there.  It seems like he has an iffy glove, strikes out quite a bit, isn't a huge power potential guy, isn't overly fast.......

Can anyone paint me a picture on this?

At the end of the season, as one of the first posters here to put together and share his own personal prospect list, and using primarily nothing more than stats, ages, experience levels, and other things independent of laying eyes on a player, I did not include Happ in the Cubs' top 20 prospects.  (I may not even have included him in the top 30, but I am uncertain whether I went that far with my list).  No other poster expressed anything resembling my lack of impression with his performance, and most rallied around their faith in the Cubs having drafted him highly as an assurance that he is still a high quality prospect.  None of their arguments on his behalf seemed persuasive, though those who started out persuaded all seemed to remain persuaded and certainly no one else expressed doubts as strong as mine.  (To me his performance was not terrible, but simple nothing resembling impressive.  I have seen nothing since to change my impression.)

Happ
Boise    .283/.408/.491,  ISO .208,  17.7 BB%,  21.5% K%,  .347 BABIP
SB        .241/.315/.448,  ISO .207,  10.3 BB%,  23.6    K%,  .288 BABIP

So Happ right now can play all 3 OF positions and is a switch hitter.  He ran into some bad batted luck at South Bend that depressed his numbers.  His power potential is just a tick below Javy.   

Happ hit 9 HR in 295 PA in 2015 at age 20, facing pitchers in the Northwest League and the Midwest League.  He also hit an additional 17 2B and 4 triples, for a total of 30 extrabase hits.

When Baez was the same age he was in high A and AA ball, and hit a total of 37 HR, along with 38 other extrabase hits for a total of 75 extrabase hits in 577 PA.  Baez slugged .578 when he was the same, but two levels higher than Happ.  When Baez was 19 and in the Midwest league, Baez had a slugging percentage of .596, 150 points higher than Happ put up in the same league when he was a year older.

"His power potential is just a tick below Javy."

I have offered no new opinion whatsoever here regarding Happ's prospects.  I have simply pointed to his numbers compared to Happ's numbers are the same ages and same levels.

brjones

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1114 on: February 12, 2016, 09:08:52 am »
Law released a list of 10 honorable mentions today, and Eddy Julio Martinez is the first guy he lists.  Here's the write-up:

Quote
Martinez was supposed to get something around $10 million in the last international signing period, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the rumored deal never came to fruition and he ended up signing with the Cubs for $3 million in October. He's a toolshed, with great bat speed, raw power and plus speed, but has barely any game experience, with only 46 games in Cuba's Serie Nacional under his belt before he defected. He hit .233/.329/.319 at ages 18 and 19. Now 21, Martinez should be ready to go to high-A, but no one seems to have any feel for how advanced he is as a hitter, and we won't really know until he gets back out on the field. He has the tools of a top-50 or even top-25 prospect, but we need to see if those tools play.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1115 on: February 13, 2016, 02:20:04 am »
BA has three Cubs in their top 100 prospect list.

Torres 41

Contreras  67

Happ  87

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1116 on: February 13, 2016, 01:09:16 pm »
BA's podcast about their rankings just confuses me more.

1) Their tool ratings have nothing to do with where the prospect is ranked. Torres is rated a 55 overall, but he has a 60 hit, 60 power, 55 run, 60 field, 60 arm. Compare that to the ratings that AJ Reed gets as the #11 prospect. Reed a 1B gets a 65 power and that is the only tool higher than Torres.

2) Cubs get dinged because of their prospects youth. Of the Astros top 100 guys only 3 have reached AA and none have spent a full year in AA.
3) They really buy into Lunow as a talent evaluator. Let's call this the Ornri bounce.
4) I have no problem with them giving a bonus for stars players in an org or penalizing teams for having low floors. It seems hard then to make the Braves your #3 org. I also question how somebody like Reed could be your #11 prospect. His bat will have to be really special to make up for being a bad fielding 1B/DH.


Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1117 on: February 13, 2016, 01:19:58 pm »
BA's podcast about their rankings just confuses me more.

1) Their tool ratings have nothing to do with where the prospect is ranked. Torres is rated a 55 overall, but he has a 60 hit, 60 power, 55 run, 60 field, 60 arm. Compare that to the ratings that AJ Reed gets as the #11 prospect. Reed a 1B gets a 65 power and that is the only tool higher than Torres.

2) Cubs get dinged because of their prospects youth. Of the Astros top 100 guys only 3 have reached AA and none have spent a full year in AA.
3) They really buy into Lunow as a talent evaluator. Let's call this the Ornri bounce.
4) I have no problem with them giving a bonus for stars players in an org or penalizing teams for having low floors. It seems hard then to make the Braves your #3 org. I also question how somebody like Reed could be your #11 prospect. His bat will have to be really special to make up for being a bad fielding 1B/DH.




It sounds less as if their rankings confuse you as it does that you are pointing out their rankings are confused.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1118 on: February 13, 2016, 01:57:25 pm »
BA rankings include a "risk" factor: low, medium, high. So, player A with a slightly better tools ranking than player B might rank below player B if player B is deemed less risky. Think that explains Torres.

Hard to miss this because BA put the risk factor in the same little box as the overall numerical rating. Makes sense to consider risk along with tools. Basic scouting.


craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1119 on: February 14, 2016, 08:00:56 am »
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php

Transcript of a pretty detailed McLeod interview.  Don't think this was posted here before.


Some pretty detailed comments, I thought some of the stuff on Contreras and Underwood was insightful for me on how the Cubs view their development.  DelaCruz also.   
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 08:04:09 am by craig »

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1120 on: February 14, 2016, 11:37:31 am »
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/jason-mcleod-talks-cubs-prospects-on-mlb-network-radio.php
Transcript of a pretty detailed McLeod interview.  Don't think this was posted here before.

"Willson Contreras stepping forward and having the year that he had last year. He’ll start the season in Triple-A and hopefully we’ll see him at some point during the 2016 season. Now it’s time for the other guys, an opportunity for them to step up.”

Love it.

I still think that if Contreras starts strong, we will see him in Chicago well before September in order to allow the Cubs to see if they can move Montero near the trade deadline for a nice return.

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1121 on: February 14, 2016, 12:05:23 pm »
In a year when you have a chance to go all the way, it would be quite risky to turn the primary catching duties over to a rookie.  I doubt there is a scenario where they try to move Montero.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1122 on: February 14, 2016, 01:33:56 pm »
In a year when you have a chance to go all the way, it would be quite risky to turn the primary catching duties over to a rookie.  I doubt there is a scenario where they try to move Montero.

There was also a chance to go all the way in 2015, and we did not see the front office sacrifice the future in any way in order to marginally improve the team's chance in 2015.  If Contreras starts strong, does well in an early to mid-season callup, and appears to be handling duties behind the plate acceptably well, even if not as well as Montero, and another competing team needs a catcher and will provide nice prospects in return, I think you will see exactly such a scenario.

Playtwo

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1123 on: February 14, 2016, 02:57:10 pm »
I strongly doubt it.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #1124 on: February 14, 2016, 04:13:46 pm »
Weren't you the one who also said there was no way Javier Baez was going to be considered for any real playing time in CF this year?