If Montero is going to bring a good return there is no shot the Cubs will move him UNLESS our season is a total disaster.
We are going for it this year. If Montero is playing well enough to bring a nice return, a competing Cubs team isn't trading their #1 catcher. A Cubs team that underperforms and is out of contention would trade him.
If he isn't the #1 catcher, he isn't going to bring a nice return.
I am hoping that the Cubs don't trade Montero for a nice return.
If Montero is hitting at league average for his position, and is performing behind the plate as he has been, and a contending team which is over-performing in 2016 needs a catcher, whether he is "the #1 catcher" at that time, or whether Maddon intends on keeping him as the #1 catcher, will not be factors in determining his return, and if there are no other better catchers available, the Cubs could likely extract a very favorable return. If that is combined with Contreras having had a good start and a good performance at bat and behind the plate, Montero becomes not only expendable, but presents the opportunity for a good return in trade.
Is that combination of factors likely?
No, just as it was not likely in 2015 that the Cubs got the kind of production they say from Schwarber, Bryant and Russell all at one time.
Things do happen, and if the combination of factors I mentioned happen in 2016, all of them being possible, it would not be at all surprising to see the Cubs move Montero for prospects. I would actually be surprised if they failed to do so. If the factors I set out are combined with Scharber doing well behind the plate in 2016, it would become even more likely.