Author Topic: On The Farm  (Read 236817 times)

JR

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8310 on: August 05, 2021, 03:29:38 pm »
I'm a little concerned Brennen is shaping up to be another three true outcomes sort. 

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8311 on: August 05, 2021, 03:56:38 pm »
Heís been a low K% guy until AA. Heís really young for the league, so I think heíll sort it out eventually.

Have some three true outcome guys are fine if you have guys with different weakness in the lineup. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8312 on: August 05, 2021, 04:14:49 pm »
I'm a little concerned Brennen is shaping up to be another three true outcomes sort. 
When reb was talking the other day about how Hoyer thinks he's got a much better system than Theo perceived himself to be inheriting when he came in, that prompted me to wonder about how Davis compares to Brett Jackson at that time.  Jackson didn't work out, obviously, but I think at the time there was considerable optimism that he'd be a core skeleton piece moving forward.  For their stats: 
*Davis, baseball ref lists this as his age-21 season, begun in high-A, continued in AA.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=davis-014bre
*Jackson, check out his 2010 age-21 season, begun in high-A, continued in AA:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksbr01.shtml

Jackson's K rate 21.7% vs 29.0% for Brennen, with K/BB of 1.6 versus 2.4 for Davis. 

Almost the same OPS (.888 Jackson versus .884), thanks to higher OBP; Davis's slugging is slightly higher, .510 versus .493.

Jackson projected as a safe plus center fielder.  Davis will likely move to a corner. 

Davis's K-rates are worse than Jackson, but otherwise very similar stats-lines.

Not identical, of course. 
1.  Jackson hadn't had the benefit of the South Bend instructional camp facing top-end pitchers; nor the disadvantage of having a no-real-games Covid year. 
2.  K-rates are obviously higher everywhere now.  So not sure 29% now is actually any worse than Jackson's 21.7% then. 
3.  I think Davis has already shown more HR power, and projects more for future, than Jackson did at the same time.
4.  I think the latter explains why Davis has been getting widespread top-40 prospect rankings; I don't recall Jackson ever being quite that high. 
5.  It's possible that while Davis has worse K-rates, that perhaps there are structure factors to his swing that cause scouts to be less concerned about his contact-vulnerability that may hypothetically have been true with jackson? 

Stats aside, even if Davis/Jackson seem very similar at this particular point, that doesn't at all mean that Davis will follow Jackson's subsequent trajectory.  Certainly it's possible.  But age 21 was Jackson's peak.  After that, Jackson just got worse; hopefully Davis will improve.  Once Jackson hit the majors his vulnerabilities were fully exposed, his adjustments made things worse, and his confidence fractured. 

Hopefully Davis will get better and will be a big success. 


CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8313 on: August 05, 2021, 04:44:41 pm »
Differences to me
1)Jackson season was closer to an even split between A+\AA. Davis has been mostly at AA.
2) AA is the first time Davis K% has been above 20% in professional ball. The little bit Iíve heard is Davis doesnít have a whole on the swing, but South Bend and AA his issue is more with picking up spin. Prospect guys donít think itíll be an issue in the future.
3) Davisís league adjusted stats are better
4) fastball velocity is up 1.5 mph and breaking balls are better. Teams have moved from sinker guys to 4 seamers. Teams are developing relievers earlier as well.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8314 on: August 05, 2021, 05:45:47 pm »
https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1423327164540366851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1423327164540366851%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1423327164540366851

"According to AZ Phil, the four prospects the Cubs traded for who are on the 40 man already (Deichmann, Espinoza, Vizcaino, Canario) will all be eligible for a 4th option season in 2024 if needed. Less of a concern for Deichmann, but it gives the others more time to develop."

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8315 on: August 05, 2021, 06:31:18 pm »
Excellent

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8316 on: August 05, 2021, 07:04:45 pm »
I hadn't realized Espinoza, Vizcaino, Canario all three were 40-man people.  All three seem pretty far distant.  I can imagine that in all three cases, teams would let them go more easily.  Burning 3-4 years of roster space, space that may be needed for yo-yo guys, and for better prospects or just prospects with high floors and higher probabilities, might seem to be an iffy use of resources for contenders.  I wonder if the discussions just went that way?  Or if the Cubs intentionally ID'd some guys like that and asked for them, knowing they'd be available at some discount? 

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8317 on: August 05, 2021, 07:17:16 pm »
Keegan T gets his second start tonight.  He did well in his first one.  (4K/1BB/0H in 3IP)
I really like the Cubs choice to put both Steele and Thompson down at Iowa to get some starts, rather than to immediately pop into the big league rotation and build up innings there. 

I'm in no rush to bring them up.  I'm kinda in tank mode anyway, and would like to sneak into the top-10. 


craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8318 on: August 05, 2021, 07:23:55 pm »
"Placed on the Development List - Ryan Jensen"

That's a re-visit to the pitch lab?  How long has a "Development List" been around, and what is it? 

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8319 on: August 05, 2021, 08:04:57 pm »
"Placed on the Development List - Ryan Jensen"

That's a re-visit to the pitch lab?  How long has a "Development List" been around, and what is it? 

Gets the player off his clubís Active List without being injured. Kind of a pause.

MLB Rules:

(12) Development List
(A) Placement on the Development List. A Minor League
player may be placed on the Development List for any
non-disciplinary reason, except that a player is not eligible to be placed on the Development List if the player is injured and otherwise qualifies for placement on the Minor League Injured List. Players on optional assignment to the Minor Leagues may not be placed on the Development List without their written consent. Upon request for placement on the Development List, the Club must include the reason for such placement. The minimum period of placement on the Development List shall be seven consecutive days, except that if a player on the Development List suffers an injury, that player is required to be transferred to the Regular Injured List and the inactive days on the Development List will count towards the minimum period of inactivity on the Regular Injured List.
(B) Player Limits. A player on the Development List shall count against the playerís Minor League Clubís Reserve List and the Domestic Reserve List limit but not against the Clubís Active List limit

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8320 on: August 05, 2021, 09:30:39 pm »
Keegan T gets his second start tonight.  He did well in his first one.  (4K/1BB/0H in 3IP)
I really like the Cubs choice to put both Steele and Thompson down at Iowa to get some starts, rather than to immediately pop into the big league rotation and build up innings there. 

I'm in no rush to bring them up.  I'm kinda in tank mode anyway, and would like to sneak into the top-10. 



If Iím counting right the Cubs are currently picking 10th. If the can keep playing .333 against the really bad teams they might have a chance at top 5. They are currently 11 games up on the Pirates in the W column and they have 6 games left with them. Miami and KC will be big series as well. Getting into the Top 10 is big cause the Mets get the 11th pick for failing to sign Rocker.

It sounds like Steele is close to a call up. I think the question is do they release Arrieta or move to a six man rotation to help limit Alzolayís innings.

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8321 on: August 05, 2021, 09:46:30 pm »
I'd not be surprised if they just park Alzolay in not too long.  He's pitched a lot. 



For the moment, the Cubs with 52 wins would draft 10th.  3  and 4  wins beyond Nationals and Rockies. 
There are 4 other teams with 54 wins or fewer.  Given the roster and rotation, it seems more likely to "move up", but given the relative records there may be as much risk of moving back in the draft, too. 
« Last Edit: August 05, 2021, 10:52:36 pm by craig »

craig

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8322 on: August 05, 2021, 10:55:37 pm »
Anybody know what's up with Santana, the SS in the Darvish trade?  He plays a little bit, but not very often.  I assume he's variably hurt? 

The other three guys in the Darvish deal are 7-12 thus far, though the 7th inning.  Mena is 4/4, pulling his average up to .247.  His K-rate doesn't seem to be anything scary.  Would be cool if he progressed, and emerged as a plausible guy, too. 

Reb

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8323 on: August 05, 2021, 11:31:37 pm »
Not sure why Santana is coming off the bench sparingly instead of getting steady ABs. He was the only one starting the season in full-season ball, sent back to ACL, and not playing regularly.

Heís playing, so doubtful heís hurt. Maybe there is a major overhaul to his swing or approach going on outside of game competition.

ticohans

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Re: On The Farm
« Reply #8324 on: August 06, 2021, 12:43:37 am »
Just pulled up a *really* interesting stat on Caissie. For all of the absurd numbers heís putting up, heís going the other way almost 45%(!!!) of the time! Those gaudy slugging totals include LOTS of oppo bullets.

EDIT:

WOW. He runs a 54% fly ball rate too. This is the profile of a hitter with serious power who knows how to get to it in game.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 12:46:38 am by ticohans »
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