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(wine, women, and song?)

The greatness of Craig never lessens.

Long: 2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB  - now 5th in OPS

Ballesteros: 1-4, SF, RBI, 2 K

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/solar-sox-vs-rafters/2024/11/06/787580/final/box

AFL all-star game:

Ballesteros: 0-1, SF, RBI

Long: 0-2, SF, RBI, K

Ballesteros quotes sound reasonable and coherent.  Sounds like he wants to get better, and work with the pitchers.  Banner's comment about "committed.. to getting in good physical condition" is interesting, given the continuing concerns in that area. 

I admit I don't necessarily know how seriously to take some of these comments.  He had a weird game with 3 CS throws, but that doesn't mean he's throwing any quick rockets, or that any of that is sustainable.  Lots of guys who aren't actually that fast try to steal.   And any "improved immensely behind the plate", who knows what that can mean from Banner, who tends towards Fleita-speak.  Sometimes "getting better" and "improved immensely" comments are more a reflection of how bad a guy was than how good he is now or will become.  When a deep-F student improves to C-, that's "getting better" and "improved immensely", without meaning the student will ever go to med school.  Perhaps Ballesteros has "improved immensely" and is bumping up the anti-awful scale, and certainly 10th percentile would be "betting better" than 1st percentile.  But the "better" comments really don't say anything about whether he's currently at 5th, 15th, 35th, or 50th percentile defensively, nor whether his ceiling is to ever become 5th, 15th, 35th, 50th, or 70th percentile defensively. 

Catcher, of course, is not often a position where a guy usually peaks at age 20.  Ballesteros is 21 now, there is still probably time to improve.  Part of me thinks that *IF* there is hypothetically any chance that he can become an anti-awful 50-start catcher eventually, they should feel free to keep him in Iowa for a couple of years, if that's what's ideal for his defensive development.  His bat might be ready sooner, but if his defense isn't, give him the time it takes to optimize that.  If he doesn't come up until summer 2026 or spring 2027, but when he does his defense is reasonable enough to be a decent #2 50-start catcher, or perhaps even more, it's worth the wait.  Maybe his bat is ready this July, but that doesn't necessitate that you bring him up as a DH/bad-backup-1B/bad-3rd-string-catcher/pinch-hitter role.  Fine for me if he keeps a big-league ready bat at Iowa until he's defense-ready, so that when you do call him up, you've got 6 years of club control where he can be productive.  Rather than bringing up the minute bat seems ready, only to burn through his control-years without ever having true opportunity to develop into a guy who can be a good 50-start catcher (or more.).

I kinda wonder if his bat moving so fast is almost disadvantageous for him.  "He's at Iowa already, is he ready for Wrigley, is he ready, is he ready, when will they call him up?"  Might be setting expectations too high and too fast for his defense, perhaps both in fan minds but also in Moises' mind.  On the other hand, I think catching AAA pitchers is probably better for his defensive development.  A lot of those guys are pretty experienced, and have variable big-league experience, and lots of breaking stuff.  And often lots of experienced, good-defense catchers in AAA, both to watch operate for other teams, and as teammate on Iowa.  So I'd think he might learn and be able to ask questions and advance his maturity in terms of pitch-calling and sequencing and handling a wide variety of stuff, that's probably better learned at Iowa than if he's still hanging at South Bend or Knoxville.  But yeah, **IF** he's got a somewhat meaningful chance to someday develop into a decent 50-start #2 catcher, or perhaps even more, I'd support being patient and give him every developmental opportunity to reach that defensive ceiling, rather than promote the bat at the expense of ever developing into what he might become defensively. 

Dusty, even if Amaya is a long-term primary catcher, catchers get/need rest.  Moises becoming good enough to be a legit #2 catcher would still be really significant.  50 starts with Ballesteros's bat, versus 50 starts with Tucker Barnhart or Thomas Nido or whomever, it can make a big difference. 

Note:  David Ross was famous for his culture-impact on the Cubs.  But he was actually a flukishly good hitter during 2016, a .784 OPS with 10HR in 166 AB.  Cubs won Game 7 in extra-innings; Ross hit a HR.  No HR, no extra innings, no championship?  Cubs beat Giants that playoffs on an amazing 6-5 comeback win in clincher.  Ross had a HR and 2 RBI.  Without his offense, maybe they lose that game, never get past San Francisco, and never see the World Series? 

I think Moises getting good enough to be an acceptable backup 50-start catcher could really make a difference, even if he's never the primary guy. 

From BA chat:

Q: James Triantos was a pretty awful fielder in 2022/2023. How did he turn into an above-average [2B] defender last year?

A. Geoff Pontes

Yeah, this was the biggest development of any player I've written up so far this offseason. He was billed as fairly good athlete coming out of high school and then we didn't see it. Talking to folks in the Cubs organization it was a matter of Triantos putting in the work to get to where he was in the field this season. Opposing evaluators had good things to say about his defense there as well. It seems like it was a matter of getting acclimated to the position.

From BA chat:

Q: James Triantos was a pretty awful fielder in 2022/2023. How did he turn into an above-average [2B] defender last year?

A. Geoff Pontes

Yeah, this was the biggest development of any player I've written up so far this offseason. He was billed as fairly good athlete coming out of high school and then we didn't see it. Talking to folks in the Cubs organization it was a matter of Triantos putting in the work to get to where he was in the field this season. Opposing evaluators had good things to say about his defense there as well. It seems like it was a matter of getting acclimated to the position.

Thanks reb!  That's really significant, and is the first report on his defense that I've seen this year.  I'd noticed that his errors had dropped way off.  But since errors are a terrible metric for defense, I'd wondered if his defense was actually playable, or if it was still lousy?  If he's pretty much a a no power LF/DH type guy, his value is totally different than if he's a reasonable 2B. 

I think this is perhaps a nice reflection on how a motivated, hard-working athlete can improve if he sticks to a single position and just really works at it.  Might that apply someday to Shaw, too, if he find a spot and sticks to it, like 3B?  Cam has the power for 3b, guessing he's just going to stick at 3b and practice nothing but 3B for now, which I like. 

But yeah, Triantos trade-value looks way different if he's not just a fast, base-stealing contact guy but is a guy who can play a good 2B and be a long-term starter. 

As might his value to us.  Nico's contract has only two more years on it, and he's beyond the place where we hope that any power will emerge.  He's also now at an age with surgery, and who knows how long his base-stealing speed will continue?   Obviously at $12 he's not super expensive, but he's not cheap either.  Not impossible that we'll keep Triantos, and a couple years out he'll give us more offense than Nico at $12M less?

Triantos is still 21, I'm still hesitantly hoping that he might add a little more power still?  I don't really expect or anticipate that anymore.  But even a modest bump in HR and XBH could help.  From 23 to 24, HR went from 4 to 7, XBH from 22 to 36, slugging from .391 to .427.  (Plus the 47 SB.). Obviously slug is never going to be his game, but would be fun if he could bump up into the ≥12 range.