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Author Topic: Politics, Religion, etc.  (Read 99676 times)

Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4875 on: October 23, 2020, 08:38:34 pm »
If you’re going to cite Gallup in support of a favorable Trump showing, you have a big problem:  Gallup polling says voters overwhelmingly feel that Trump does NOT deserve re-election. This is particularly evident among Independents (the largest % voting block according to Gallup). 61% of Independents say Trump is undeserving of re-election.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/322340/voters-say-trump-not-deserve-reelection.aspx
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Robb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4876 on: October 23, 2020, 08:57:36 pm »
Gallup also says 57% of people say they are better off than they were the last four years,  even with Covid. That metric, more than polls have accurately predicted whether an incumbent will be reelected. I'm not predicting a Trump win,  but he certainly has a much better shot than polls give him.  Now let's see, why does that seem familiar?
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Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4877 on: October 23, 2020, 09:21:20 pm »
Quote from: Robb on October 23, 2020, 01:17:49 am
So you guys are believing the polls again?  You might want to see the real numbers on early voting and registrations.  Dems need a big lead in VBM to withstand ED turnout that slants R. They aren't getting the margins they need.  Heck,  in MI it is almost tied.  NC, dems are behind 2016, FL too. MN should really scare you.  Even the senate race is within the margin of error.  It could be that R's are voting for Biden but that isn't what the polls say.  We will see but you guys better wrap your minds around the possibility Trump wins, perhaps comfortably if EV voting trends don't change.

Michigan and Minnesota don’t report early voting by party registration. So, what you said above makes no sense. Don’t just swallow what Trump says on the stump.

PA does report by party reg...and it’s been overwhelmingly Dem so far. Florida does too. Dems up by 9% Fla so far. See link below.

Look, 538 says Trump currently has 12% chances to win. Think that’s what Cubs had at some point in 2016 to win WS. If we go to the racetrack together and bet on a 8-1 horse, might feel hopeful about winning. I recently played an interactive  election tool that reflected those odds. Played once and it came up Trump. So, he could win, G-d Forbid.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
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brjones

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4878 on: October 23, 2020, 09:44:33 pm »
Quote from: Reb on October 23, 2020, 09:21:20 pm
Look, 538 says Trump currently has 12% chances to win. Think that’s what Cubs had at some point in 2016 to win WS.

MLB pitchers hit .128 in 2019. So he has about the same chance to win as the average pitcher has of getting a hit. It's not something that shocks you when it happens, but is also something that rarely happens. (538 also has Biden at 33% to win in a landslide)

This is a fun new feature 538 released in the last couple of days. It's an interactive version of their model where you can see how the results in any state impacts each candidate's chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

My understanding (from 538 and other media) that the key states to watch on election night are Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and maybe Texas to a much lesser extent. Trump basically needs to win all of them to have a chance; Biden is currently about a 2-1 favorite in the first three. There's a good chance that all of those states could be called on election night. If Biden wins any of those states, Trump will have a very, very tough time winning (they have Biden at 98% if he wins AZ, 99% if he wins NC, and >99% if he wins FL or TX).
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Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4879 on: October 23, 2020, 09:56:53 pm »
Quote from: Robb on October 23, 2020, 08:57:36 pm
Gallup also says 57% of people say they are better off than they were the last four years,  even with Covid. That metric, more than polls have accurately predicted whether an incumbent will be reelected. I'm not predicting a Trump win,  but he certainly has a much better shot than polls give him.  Now let's see, why does that seem familiar?

It says a lot about perceptions about Trump that there is such a major disconnect between the “better off” question and the “deserves to be re-elected” question. With the exception of his can-shoot-somebody-on-Fifth Avenue base, folks widely perceive that Trump is unfit for office. What other explanation can there be for the disconnect?

Further, the “better off” question is less important than the favorability/unfavorability metrics, particularly here as the latter are remarkably consistent with Trump for virtually his entire term and are consistently well under what is necessary. Obviously, he’s going to lose the popular vote and his 12% shot is solely because of the peculiarities of the electoral college. That’s our system, so stuff can happen.
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Ron

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4880 on: October 23, 2020, 10:32:41 pm »
Quote from: brjones on October 23, 2020, 09:44:33 pm
MLB pitchers hit .128 in 2019. So he has about the same chance to win as the average pitcher has of getting a hit. It's not something that shocks you when it happens, but is also something that rarely happens. (538 also has Biden at 33% to win in a landslide)

This is a fun new feature 538 released in the last couple of days. It's an interactive version of their model where you can see how the results in any state impacts each candidate's chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

My understanding (from 538 and other media) that the key states to watch on election night are Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and maybe Texas to a much lesser extent. Trump basically needs to win all of them to have a chance; Biden is currently about a 2-1 favorite in the first three. There's a good chance that all of those states could be called on election night. If Biden wins any of those states, Trump will have a very, very tough time winning (they have Biden at 98% if he wins AZ, 99% if he wins NC, and >99% if he wins FL or TX).

Actually if Biden wins either Florida or Pennsylvania (or even Arizona, I believe). If you play around with the 538 tool, or at 270 to Win, you can see that. Biden has nearly a 7 point lead in Pennsylvania in the 538 polling average. Of course this assumes WI & MI where Biden has even more substantial leads.  Not that anyone should take anything for granted. I've been doing calling to voters in battleground states at least twice a week and will continue to do so til the election. This is truly an existential election for our country and our democracy.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 10:34:23 pm by Ron »
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Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4881 on: October 23, 2020, 10:49:56 pm »
Florida tabulates its mailed ballots before election day and can announce those as soon as polling closes. So, there figures to be a substantial count early in the night in Florida. Of course, if history is a guide it figures to be Florida close and so that wouldn’t change, whenever the vote is tabulated. But, if by chance it looks bad for Trump in Florida 3-4 hours after polls close, possible we’ll know a lot that night. Not counting on that, but possible.

There are rumors that to avoid a marathon days-long count, Florida will be putting a runner at 2B top of every hour. That’s what people are saying. Saw that in a retweet from a VERY reliable source.
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Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4882 on: October 24, 2020, 12:27:44 am »
Quote from: Ron on October 23, 2020, 10:32:41 pm
Actually if Biden wins either Florida or Pennsylvania (or even Arizona, I believe). If you play around with the 538 tool, or at 270 to Win, you can see that. Biden has nearly a 7 point lead in Pennsylvania in the 538 polling average. Of course this assumes WI & MI where Biden has even more substantial leads.  Not that anyone should take anything for granted. I've been doing calling to voters in battleground states at least twice a week and will continue to do so til the election. This is truly an existential election for our country and our democracy.

There are basically two states that matter in this election.  One is PA - because if Biden wins PA, MI and WI he gets to 270.  And he's not losing MI or WI if he wins PA - that's the toughest nut of the three.  PA would essentially be the undisputed key state in a normal election year.

Because this isn't a normal election year and we have a proto-fascist president who refuses to commit to a peaceful transfer of power, the other state that matters is Florida.  Because Florida will be decided on election night (barring anything really crazy like Gore-Bush), and if Trump loses FL he has no realistic path to claiming he was cheated in a close election.  PA won't be decided on election night if it's close, FL will - and that makes FL equally important given the peculiarities of the moment.
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Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4883 on: October 24, 2020, 08:03:59 am »
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
One important election night twist: early mail ballots are really good for Biden in Arizona so far, reversing the traditional pattern (you may recall McSally led and then Sinema over took post election day).
Now, I'd expect Biden to have the Election Night lead in Arizona.

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CurtOne

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4884 on: October 24, 2020, 09:56:19 am »
Polls separate the optimists from the pessimists.

I remember Carter vs. Reagan.  Weekend polls showed Reagan with a 3 point lead with a plus or minus margin of error as 4.  Carter supporters had hope.  Somebody in the group that was discussing the possibilities said, yeah, but that means Reagan could be up by 7.   We all know how that turned out.
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Robb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4885 on: October 24, 2020, 09:58:10 am »
AZ has been trending Trump and McSally this week with several polls showing a lead there for both.  PA continues to be interesting, the early vote looks good for D's. However,  are all this registered D's voting for Biden? It was the crossovers that won PA for Trump last time.  How many 538 A+ pollsters are taking into account the shy Trump vote, which will be greater than last time? Nate Silver is not the end all of election predictions. He touts his model as one of the best because he gave Trump a 29% or so chance in 2016. Sorry,  but if a polling firm is 71% wrong I'm hiring a new firm,  especially if they go by the same metrics that failed before.  Another unknown in this election is the increased approval of Trump among young black males and Latinos. If Trump gets even a small bump in these communities it becomes nearly impossible to see a Biden win. 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 10:10:02 am by Robb »
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Robb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4886 on: October 24, 2020, 10:08:26 am »
You can look at FL overall but the trends since EV began are moving R in a big way.  On election day in 2016 HRC has a sizeable lead and lost by 112k. If trends continue Biden will have less of a lead than her and will have cannibalized much of his ED voters as well.  A FL dem operative said they would need a 650k lead on election day to overcome ED R turnout. They are no where near that and losing ground daily while the panhandle hasn't even begun.  Florida could be called quite early on election night.  BTW, R's are nearly even in Miami Dade County.  That's how bad FL is trending for Biden. The only chance Biden had there is that large numbers of R's are voting Biden. Problem is,  Trump has a 96% approval among R's so not likely. 
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Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4887 on: October 24, 2020, 01:31:03 pm »
2016 Florida early voting trends won’t tell us much about 2020. That’s because who votes by mail/early in-person has totally flipped. In 2016 Florida Democrats cast 154,694 more ballots at early voting locations than Republicans, and the GOP cast 58,244 more mail votes than Democrats. This year, way more Democrats than Republicans are voting by mail and, so far in a few days since early in-person voting, more Republicans are voting in-person than Dems.

So, it is foolish to characterize this as anybody’s advantage at this point. We just don’t know at this point.

Also, there are nearly 1M non-party early votes in Fla so far and nobody knows how they are trending. That’s a lot of votes and we know that national polling has Trump doing poorly with Independents. Maybe Fla will be different and maybe it won’t. Independents may well decide Florida victor.

Finally, as to R allegedly being “nearly even” in Dade County, it’s 59.4 Dem and 40.6 R. That’s Trumping math I guess.
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Deeg

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4888 on: October 24, 2020, 07:20:42 pm »
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
·
17m
Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration*

Dem:     10,866,723 (52.5%)
Rep:      5,045,574   (24.4%)
Others: 4,664,046  (22.5%)
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Reb

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Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Reply #4889 on: October 24, 2020, 09:07:39 pm »
There are almost as many non-party affiliated mail ballots returned so far as Republican mail ballots.

4,686,272 Independents.
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